PRG Trade Policy Update – 6/18/26
Topline: In an otherwise quiet trade-policy week, Europe and the USMCA review process were the main developments to watch. The EU is moving toward final implementation of its tariff commitments under the transatlantic trade deal, but the agreement remains structured around safeguards that allow Brussels to suspend concessions if the United States fails to honor the Joint Statement, restricts EU market access, or maintains tariffs above agreed levels on steel and aluminum derivative products. At the same time, the USMCA review is beginning under a cloud of uncertainty, with Canadian officials emphasizing continued engagement and integrated North American supply chains while President Trump’s recent comments suggest renewal may become another point of leverage. Together, these developments reinforce the administration’s preference for trade agreements that remain conditional, reviewable, and tied to continuing tariff pressure rather than long-term stability.
Below are this week’s key trade updates. As always, feel free to reach out to Josh Zive ([email protected]) or myself ([email protected]) if you have any questions or would like additional materials on any of the developments covered below.
Tariffs
Section 301
- The Supreme Court refused to hear a challenge to Trump’s expanded Section 301 tariffs on China from his first term, leaving in place a ruling allowing the tariffs to grow from $50 billion to about $370 billion in goods.
- Twenty-three Senate Republicans, led by Todd Young, are urging the Trump administration to open a Section 301 investigation into drug-pricing policies in Germany, Japan, and other high-income countries, arguing those policies suppress prices below fair value and force the U.S. to shoulder too much of the cost of pharmaceutical innovation.
Refunds
- A coalition of “tariffed payors” (companies and individuals who paid Trump’s reversed IEEPA tariffs through importers rather than directly) is asking a federal judge to force Customs to set aside and track their share of refunds, arguing the current program wrongly routes all the money to importers of record even when the importers passed the costs along.
- Top Senate Democrats are demanding that Customs and Border Protection explain its plans to repay the $166 billion collected through now-overturned IEEPA tariffs, accusing the Trump administration of deliberately working to delay and obstruct the court-ordered refunds.
Trade Agreements
Europe
- The European Parliament voted 440-151 to approve legislation implementing the EU’s trade deal with the U.S., clearing one of the final hurdles to removing tariffs on American industrial and some agricultural goods after months of delay that repeatedly frustrated the Trump administration, with only a formal sign-off from the Council of the EU, expected June 26, now remaining.
USMCA
- President Trump has said he is “not looking to renew” the USMCA, with his administration pressing Canada to address longstanding U.S. complaints ahead of the July 1 review, though Canadian officials are responding calmly — framing the date as a starting point for negotiations rather than a deadline and voicing confidence that a deal preserving the integrated North American market is still reachable.
To access our memo on USMCA withdrawal and renegotiation procedures, click here.