PRG Pulse Post-Election Analysis: Issue by Issue
Insight - November 13, 2020
The Policy Resolution Group at Bracewell LLP (PRG) has prepared the following post-election analysis briefing to provide insight on some of the top issues of the day.
This analysis builds on our post-election webinar held on the morning after the election, November 4, 2020. A recording of the webinar is available here.
PRG’s lobbyists, lawyers and strategic communications professionals bring decades of experience working on these issues in the private sector, on Capitol Hill and at federal agencies. We stand ready to help our clients make sure their voices are heard by policymakers and the public.
For more, contact PRG@policyres.com.
Contents:
Committee Leadership in the 117th Congress
By: Scott Segal and Liam Donovan
As President-elect Biden stands poised to assume the office he has aspired to for over three decades, he inherits a national crisis not unlike the one he stepped into as Vice President nearly 12 years ago. Just as President Obama did in early 2009, Biden will have to blend his agenda with the immediate needs of the country, putting the latter before the former. Unlike Obama, he’ll have to do so with a narrowly divided Senate that may be in Republican hands, and a diminished House majority. But if anyone can succeed in times of partisan rancor, it may be Joe Biden. His administration will depend on the President-elect’s deep well of relationships and goodwill on Capitol Hill to tackle priority issues.
What Does this Mean for You?
With Republicans in Congress faring far better across the board than expected, legislative ambitions for a Biden agenda have been cut down to size before the transition has even begun. Even in the event of a 50-50 Democratic majority, pending the outcome of Georgia’s run-off elections in January, every vote – from cabinet selections to a hypothetical reconciliation package – will be hard won, and subject to a veto from more conservative Democratic Senators. Expect the first 100 days to be punctuated by an effort to unite and heal a divided country, beginning with a "Recovery Act"-style health and economic relief package. Outside of the COVID space, while most of the real action will feature executive action, Biden’s faith in Congressional institutions and relationships may produce scarce areas of potential bipartisan agreement, like infrastructure or retirement and savings. And depending on the result of the Lame Duck session, a nascent Biden administration may even have to fund the government early in its tenure.
For our full analysis, click here.
Committee Leadership in the 117th Congress
By: John Lee and Anna Burhop
Come January, President Biden could very well find himself with a divided government. Both Georgia Senate seats are going to a runoff on January 5th and conventional wisdom suggests that voters opposed to the president-elect may turn out in higher numbers in order to impose a check on his agenda. As a result, Leader McConnell could retain his grip on the Senate leadership reins. The House remains under the leadership of Democrats and Speaker Pelosi, although by a narrower margin than last Congress. Committee leadership changes will be minimal, with most shifts driven by the Republican Party’s self-imposed term limits. Our full analysis outlines some key changes likely to have the largest impacts on legislative agenda setting in the 117th Congress.
What Does this Mean for You?
A new House Appropriations chairwoman along with shifts in Republican leadership on the Senate Energy and Natural Resources and Environment and Public Works Committees mean new faces in key leadership positions. Assuming Democrats do not gain complete control of Congress, the opportunities for advancing “activist” legislation are nonexistent. Any progress will have to be done on a bipartisan basis, frustrating many progressive members of the lower chamber.
For our full analysis, click here.
By: Scott Segal, Eric Washburn, Christine Wyman, Anna Burhop and George Felcyn
We expect a deliberate but gradual—rather than radical—approach to the energy transition from a Biden administration. Biden is not opposed to the continued use of fossil fuels in any form, and his administration is more likely to trust its experts to develop a national energy policy than release top-down dictates that lack durable impact.
What Does this Mean for You?
A Biden energy policy will push the envelope of what can be done, channeling FDR’s Great Depression-era New Deal and using the economic recovery and even the pandemic as drivers to “Build Back Better.” Yet much of what Biden wants to achieve in the energy arena will require legislation and appropriations, testing his team’s skills at legislative negotiation. On executive action, while climate change and environmental justice considerations may add permitting challenges, Biden’s countervailing interests in economic recovery, union support and even foreign policy will likely produce a more balanced approach overall.
For our full analysis, click here.
By: Scott Segal, Jeff Holmstead, Eric Washburn, Christine Wyman and Anna Burhop
Much like the Trump administration focused its early efforts on reversing Obama administration actions, President Biden will spend much of his first two years tackling issues that had been the subject of Trump-era “rollbacks.” Some of these actions, like rejoining the Paris Climate Agreement and revoking Trump Executive Orders, can be done almost immediately, but it will take time and resources for the Biden administration to unwind many Trump regulatory actions that are in various stages of finality and implementation.
What Does this Mean for You?
The focus of the new administration will largely be on taking a more aggressive approach on environmental and climate issues, and increasing enforcement against industry, particularly in the environmental justice space. With White House encouragement, we are likely to see more states and cities filing climate change and similar lawsuits. Companies in the energy and manufacturing space will be well-advised to analyze their exposure to potential environmental justice claims, potential climate-related actions from all fronts, and potential oversight and investigations.
For our full analysis, click here.
By: Tim Urban and Liam Donovan
With polls having long shown their party poised to take full control of Washington, Democratic tax-writers had been limbering up to significantly revise the Internal Revenue Code in 2021. But now the question of who controls the Senate, and by what margin, is much less clear. Should Democrats manage to claw their way to wins in Georgia and a bare majority in the upper chamber, they’ll need absolute consensus within their caucus to muster the votes for any partisan tax vehicle. Alternatively, if the conventional wisdom that the GOP will win at least one if not both Senate races comes true, the Biden administration could find themselves facing at least two years of divided government. The tax policy ramifications are significant.
What Does this Mean for You?
Pending the outcome of the Georgia run-off elections, our view is that the 21 percent corporate rate appears safe for the time being, along with some other permanent TCJA provisions targeted by progressives. While there will very likely be a renewed assault on oil and gas specific provisions in the Code, Members of Congress from oil and gas areas may be able to preserve some if not all of them. Areas we see as potentially open to bi-partisan deal making include COVID-related economic recovery incentives, extension of expiring tax provisions; infrastructure rebuilding tax policy; energy and environmental tax incentives; and retirement savings. If government is indeed divided in 2021, look for a sharp focus on potential swing vote Senators.
For our full analysis, click here.
By: Paul Nathanson and Josh Zive
The Trump administration’s approach to international trade was one of the most significant shifts away from the policies of previous administrations. Trump’s “America first” policy resulted in a reliance on the use of tariffs and therefore trade tensions with just about every U.S. trading partner to protect certain favored industries and political constituencies, such as steel producers. It is important to remember that, although Biden campaigned as a complete rejection of President Trump, his views on trade policy have always been shaped by populist and nationalist principles, which were embraced by the Trump administration. Biden was very cautious in the way that he spoke about trade policy, criticizing Trump’s trade policy as ineffective, but also strongly criticizing China and not making specific commitments to undo any of the tariffs in place. Biden’s approach to trade will likely shift away from the unilateralism of the Trump administration, and return to a more multilateral approach with a focus on a global alliance to confront Chinese trade policies.
What Does this Mean for You?
Biden’s victory may result in the easing of Section 232 steel and aluminum on certain allies, but he is not likely to immediately terminate many of the tariffs, such as the Section 301 tariffs on China, enacted by the Trump administration, nor radically shift the current confrontational approach with China. However, a Biden administration will likely immediately return to a multilateral trade approach, one motivated by seeking a more coordinated global approach to confronting unfair trade practices by China.
For our full analysis, click here.
By: Paul Nathanson, Ed Krenik and John Lee
Joe Biden’s win on Election Day will result in a change in the composition of the U.S. Consumer Product Safety Commission (CPSC). But, a change to majority Democrats for the five-person Commission is complicated, with several unique twists that could result in a majority Republican Commission for the duration of Biden’s first term. The resignation of Republican Acting Chair Ann Marie Buerkle last year has left the Commission with a 2-2 partisan split, and a Democratic acting chair. The nomination of President Trump’s pick for CPSC Chair, Nancy Beck, has languished in the Senate. However, if the Senate confirms Beck during the Lame Duck session, it could ensure a 3-2 Republican majority through 2024 because of the seven year terms of commissioners.
What Does this Mean for You?
If Beck is confirmed as both commissioner and chairman, she will begin a seven-year term, though Biden can shift the chairman role to a Democrat. Still, with a 3-2 Republican split, the Commission’s approach to consumer product safety will not undergo significant changes for the foreseeable future. If Beck is not confirmed, Biden can nominate a Democrat, and shift the balance to 3-2 in favor of Democrats. A Democrat-lead CPSC would likely increase enforcement efforts and attempt to pass more mandatory safety standards. At the same time, it is possible that the Democratic majority in the House will review CPSC’s underlying statute and make several changes, including weakening the agency’s current deference to voluntary safety standards. But, the chances of these changes becoming law are weakened if the Republicans retain the Senate.
For our full analysis, click here.
With a government funding deadline looming on December 11, 2020, Congress will have its fair share of work to do when Members return following the election. Negotiations are expected to determine if and how to fund the government going forward.
What Does this Mean for You?
All eyes turn to the December 11th deadline to see if President Trump has any interest in keeping the government open prior to his departure. Our full analysis offers three potential scenarios (plus a fourth wildcard) for government funding negotiations. At the same time, Democrats and Republicans are considering leadership changes in the 117th Congress for the Appropriations Committee and, in a post-Budget Control Act world, are beginning to map out Fiscal Year 2022 priorities.
For our full analysis, click here.
PRG brings government relations, strategic communications and legal representation together to help clients navigate the complex federal landscape. PRG Pulse is an up-to-the-minute multimedia resource on Election 2020. For more, subscribe to our podcast, The Lobby Shop, on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, SoundCloud, and Stitcher. Follow PRG and the podcast on Twitter at the handles @PolicyRez and @TheLobbyShopPod.
PRG Pulse is a production of the full PRG team. PRG Pulse Producer Caitlin Sickles would like to thank all partners and principals as well as PRG's creative, research and administrative support professionals and our Fall 2020 interns. A special thanks to key contributor Liam Donovan and multimedia and design specialist Anya Ross.