New Hampshire…Three Top Takeaways

The first in the nation primary is behind us and, unlike the morning after the Iowa Caucus, we have a winner. Bernie Sanders edged out Pete Buttigieg with 25.9% percent of the vote, yet the margin is far closer than the Senator’s commanding victory over Hillary Clinton in 2016. With only a 1.5% lead over the former Mayor of South Bend, the delegate count looks to be a tie. As Bernie and Pete seek to cement their frontrunner status, here are a few takeaways to keep in mind as the Democratic primary marches forward to Nevada and South Carolina.

#1. Retail politics – Still relevant in a modern campaign?  Yes.

In the PRG Pulse update on The Lobby Shop earlier this week, NBC News reporter Amanda Golden discussed the changing role of traditional retail politics in New Hampshire. She and her NBC colleague Julia Jester authored an interesting story that shows how campaigns are forced to balance the impact of retail politics – those time consuming face to face interactions with voters in small counties throughout the state – against the pull of an increasingly national race that plays out in larger – and televised – events. The Biden and Warren teams put stake in the idea that voters would be attracted by their national polling numbers, and how they might fare head-to-head against President Trump.  As a result, the candidates spent less time personally in the state and instead hosted larger and less frequent rallies.  Meanwhile, Mayor Pete spent more time in the state, on bus tours and the like.  (Worth noting: Bernie leaned on the strong showing he made in 2016, and had less ground to cover to make himself known to voters in New Hampshire.)  The results seem to indicate that New Hampshire voters were more enthusiastic about candidates who invested in a very strong local ground game operation. Even in the pressure cooker of the 24/7 hour news cycle and the pull to focus on national issues, for early state votes, few things can really take the place of showing up.

#2. Klobucharge/Klomentum/Klobusurge – An exception to the retail rule?  Yes.

Call it what you will, there is no doubt that the Senator from Minnesota exceeded expectations yesterday evening as she attempts to carve out a path among moderate voters. Despite her campaign’s focus on Iowa, her stellar debate performance at Friday night’s St. Anselm College debate made her attractive to last minute undecideds in New Hampshire, who pointed to her experience and willingness to fight for votes from anyone disillusioned with the president, regardless of party. The outcome last night shows that in the last days before a vote, a pivotal moment can catapult a candidate over others with more established ground games.  Her finish now suggests she’s a serious contender as she makes her way to Nevada and South Carolina (with a notable pit stop in New York to raise some cash).  Interestingly, the combination of her numbers and Pete’s indicate that nearly half of New Hampshire voters are looking for a moderate who they think can take down the president. However, the key question is at what expense does the Klobucharge come for the Democratic party? Her momentum could complicate the road ahead by splintering votes among moderate candidates, potentially strengthening Sanders’ bid.

#3. Can Vice President Biden right the ship?  Hard to say.

Standing in contrast to Klobuchar’s upward momentum is waning enthusiasm for Biden.  After a 4^th place finish in Iowa and an abysmal 5^th place finish in New Hampshire, the Democratic establishment is now forced to face the fact that the former Vice President will not have the nomination wrapped up anytime soon.  In fairness, the first four states make up fewer than 5% of the total delegates up for grabs.  However, it’s not a good sign to be hosting a results party with the candidate on videoconference from the next stop.  Biden is holding on to the hope that minority voters trust him and can carry him to the nomination, telling supporters in South Carolina last night, “I hope you guys love me as much as I love you.”  Disappointing results mean the Biden campaign has struggled to fundraise, so a strong Super Tuesday push on the airwaves will be more difficult.  A strong showing on the trail and at the polls in South Carolina could restore badly momentum for Biden.  But, without a first-place finish in South Carolina, it will be difficult for the campaign to justify moving forward.