Joe Biden Answers the Bell (And Then Some)

By: Liam Donovan

Joe Biden's South Carolina firewall held on Saturday in a big way, delivering the former Vice President a massive victory and a new lease on political life in his quest to secure the Democratic nomination. The win was huge not only in its magnitude, which exceeded all reasonable expectations, but also in terms of the existential stakes. After an 18-day stretch in which Biden saw his half-century career flash before his eyes, he sought to recast the race with a new sense of urgency, using his victory speech to implore Democrats to rally around his candidacy. But while Biden emerges from The Palmetto State in a stronger position than anyone might have guessed, serious questions about the future of his campaign remain. And with less than 24 hours until voters head to the polls in more than a dozen states across the country, the outlook of the race could be scrambled once again in a matter of days.

All things equal, Joe Biden heads into Super Tuesday as strong as anyone in the field. Despite his abysmal performances in Iowa and New Hampshire and a wobbly turn in Nevada, Biden blew the doors off his opponents in South Carolina, nearly matching then-candidate Barack Obama's margin in 2008 despite facing a phalanx of opponents. He won handily in every county and all seven congressional districts. He won virtually every voter type or demographic no matter how it was sliced. He held Bernie Sanders, the only other candidate to reach the statewide viability threshold, south of 20 percent in the first state to feature a disproportionate African American population. And he forced Tom Steyer, his rather unlikely chief rival for the the state's black voters, out of the race altogether after a humbling defeat.

Unfortunately for Biden, all things are not equal. Not in terms of resources, where, despite hints of late-breaking support in the wake of his victory, his campaign could only afford paid media buys in a smattering of targeted markets across the country. Not in terms of bandwidth, which he necessarily lavished on South Carolina while his rivals spent recent days and weeks dashing across the map to tend to key states. Not demographically, where most of the remaining slate will fall well between the single-digit black populations of the earliest states and the African-American majority of the South Carolina primary. And not in terms of political geography, which will run disproportionately through Sanders' linchpin of California while Biden is forced to compete throughout the south with former NYC Mayor Mike Bloomberg and his relentless multimedia ubiquity.

But the biggest question mark heading into Super Tuesday is what Biden's jarring victory means for the structure of the race, specifically as it relates to the party's 15 percent threshold for amassing delegates, be it at the statewide or district level. Biden has to hope that the media-fueled momentum of the coming days helps to break the logjam among the Sanders alternatives and propels him to viability virtually everywhere as voters key in on the emerging reality of a two-man race. On the other hand, in states like California, he could use some company in the interest of holding Bernie's numbers down. One percentage point here or there has distinct and enduring delegate implications that could ultimately help decide the race. As one contest per week gives way to fifteen in one day, the scenarios become significantly more complex, and delegate algebra turns into multivariable calculus.

Whatever is to come on Tuesday, the aftershocks of Biden's win are already reverberating throughout the race. With no clear victory in sight, and obvious demographic struggles dogging his otherwise promising campaign, Pete Buttigieg suspended his Presidential bid on Sunday. Barring key victories by other non-Bernie candidates on Tuesday, Mayor Pete's exit may not be the last we see this week. For Joe Biden that winnowing can't come soon enough. But in the meantime, 48 hours of saturation-level coverage of his landslide victory will have to do.