3 Takeaways from the RNC

From start to finish, this was a convention brought to you by—and at times, for the personal pleasure of—Executive Producer Donald J. Trump. What it lacked in consistency of message and tone, it made up for in slick visuals, creative taped content, and even serial, reality-style performances by the President himself.

But with the news cycle more fickle and fleeting than ever, what should we take away from this week? Here are three things that stood out.

Programming Choices Telegraph GOP Weaknesses—and Reveal Perceived Strengths

From the casting to the writing, this convention was aimed from the outset at combatting the notion that the President is a racist, a sexist, or a xenophobe. It was a refrain that was conveyed implicitly and explicitly, with a number of compelling surrogates sharing disarming stories. While these testimonials are unlikely to lead to a groundswell of, say, African-American support, the more immediate goal was to comfort restless suburbanites who have grown increasingly receptive to social justice arguments while blanching at the party’s recent cultural tack, and the President’s handling of race issues in particular.

Other messages were aimed squarely at wedges the GOP seeks to use to their advantage. The law and order theme of night four in particular was an unmistakable counterpoint to the renewed unrest sparked by yet another shooting of a person of color at the hands of local police, this time in Kenosha, Wisconsin. While the riots and looting stemming from the initial wave of protests never lived up to the expectations of some pundits, and if anything seem to have coincided with Trump’s mid-summer polling skid, the re-emergence of violence in a key battleground is the sort of variable the campaign hopes to capitalize on, or at the very least force the Biden campaign to confront.

In terms of prosecuting the case against Biden, the message was inconsistent and in some cases contradictory, but the overarching argument was that the former Vice President is an empty vessel, a shell of his former self, and if elected will be used as a tool of the far left. The primacy of a political bank shot is a testament to the difficulty the campaign has had getting traction against a familiar and generally inoffensive opponent, and the extent to wish they had prepared to do battle with an arch-progressive like Bernie Sanders.

Trump's acceptance speech was a buttoned-down and straightforward affair in which he largely stayed on script, avoided the extended ad libs that typify his free-wheeling campaign rallies, and generally projected an air of relative normalcy, albeit from the unprecedented backdrop of the South Lawn. The subdued performance again seemed geared toward those erstwhile Republican voters who are looking for a path to get to yes.

The Elephant in the Room

Despite (or perhaps because of?) the existential threat the pandemic presents to the President's re-election hopes, there was little in the way of COVID-centric content. To the extent the coronavirus was invoked, it was largely to play up the "best economy in history" that preceded it, heap scorn on China, or cast the crisis as something in the rear view. Two notable exceptions: In a Rose Garden speech on Wednesday, First Lady Melania Trump sounded the empathetic notes that the President has been unable to muster to date, expressing sorrow and solidarity for families whose loved ones who have been stricken or killed by the virus. In his formal acceptance of the GOP nomination on Thursday, President Trump himself suggested a vaccine could be ready by the end of the year, a bullish outlook that is not necessarily shared by the scientific community.

Pageantry Overshadowed by Events

Even as Republicans pulled off a mostly-virtual convention experience that matched the bar set by Democrats a week earlier, the contrast with emerging natural and social disasters in different parts of the country served as a stark reminder that for all the best laid plans, elections turn on events. Some 15 to 20 million people watched the convention each night, with many more consuming second hand coverage. While that is a lot of people on its face, the audience is disproportionately comprised of politically engaged Americans whose minds are already made up. Which is not to say the big stage doesn't matter, but that unforeseen happenings which stand to intercede in the next 67 days are likely to have more bearing on the outcome of the election than the prime time speeches or debates that have long been circled on the calendar.

So What Now?

Republicans turned in a convention that featured diverse--and in some cases unconventional—voices making a stirring argument for four more years. While this week may or may not yield a significant polling bounce, it reframes and focuses the terms of the race heading into the home stretch.

So with both conventions now in the books, what does it all mean? Let's wait and see. We are just now getting a clear picture of how the well-received Democratic convention shaped opinion. The short answer: no apparent "bump," which is not surprising given the already-healthy polling lead Biden enjoys, but beneath the surface, a consolidation of anti-Trump sentiment into pro-Joe support.

For Trump, amidst all the red meat and over-the-top boosterism, the aim seemed similarly marginal: making it "ok" for otherwise R-leaning skeptics of the President—people who are weary of the chaos and spectacle—to come home. Building out this permission structure may not be enough to leap ahead of Biden, or wrest back the lead in key battlegrounds, but the imperative for Trump and his campaign over the final two months is to close the national gap from the current ~8 point margin to within 5, at which point the President's electoral college advantage puts this race back in play.

While the current trajectory continues to favor Biden, and the race itself remains remarkably stable, there is still ample time for the marginal swing needed to turn a potential electoral college blowout into another nail-biter.