Energy Update: Week of October 30th

Friends,

I start today with the cold open on this weekend’s Saturday Night Live. While I watched to see the Foo Fighters, I was thrilled to see my favorite SNL drop-in, Christopher Walken, make an appearance as the Ghost of Halloween Spirit meeting with “President Biden.”  You MUST watch it. Of course, Walken was really there to re-introduce the Foos, who were the musical guest in 2003 when he mispronounced their name.  Here is Dave Grohl funny story about it (including Walken impressions). Finally, congrats to all those who completed yesterday’s Marine Corps Marathon, including our friend Kristina Baum. 

With new Speaker Mike Johnson in place, Congress steps up the pace of work moving funding bills this week.  House Rules hopes to bring four appropriations bills to the floor: Legislative Branch, Transportation-HUD, Interior and Financial Services. But to keep the government open past the November 17^th deadline, the Speaker is going to need to shepherd another continuing resolution through the House, which it seems they have already aligned. Meanwhile, the Senate will try to move “minibuses” of funding legislation that have been stalled since mid-September.

As for hearings, not much action this week except for Senate Environment on Wednesday looking at wild weather events and climate change and Senate Energy on Thursday on CCUS and Direct Air Capture technologies.

Four major events this week:

1. Today at 1:00 p.m., experts from the American Gas Association will provide AGA’s annual media briefing on the upcoming winter outlook. AGA staff will present observations on the natural gas market as the U.S. moves into the 2023-2024 winter heating season and discuss the factors driving natural gas markets as well as market fundamentals, data on planning preparedness, and the winter fuel costs forecast. HINT: It will be way better than last year in terms of cost.  Adam Kay (akay@aga.org) if you want to tune in.
2. On Wednesday, the State Department will host a live announcement and public-private partnership signing ceremony to advance work on critical minerals with the non-profit SAFE. (Register HERE if you want to attend) Live Stream will be HERE.
3. The International Seabed Authority (ISA) convenes for another Council meeting October 30–November 8, 2023 in Kingston, Jamaica. The Metals Company executives tracking the meeting will hold a background conversation (+ on-the-record Q&A) on Thursday at 9:00 a.m. to share its perspective on the proceedings.
4. Energy Innovation Reform Project (EIRP) hosts an online discussion Thursday at 9:00 a.m. on China’s dominance of global solar panel supply chains and the US and South Korea efforts to buttress their domestic manufacturing. Leading experts from both countries who have written important and timely papers on these issues will discuss challenges.

Hope you have a great Halloween tomorrow. Milk Dudes are my favorite, but I will pretty much eat any candy. Also, over the weekend, I whipped up couple of batches of my specialty “Old Bay” and Ranch/Dill pumpkin seeds, which we are sharing around the DC office. Watching for NAAQS, Methane and COP28 updates, which just over a month away in Dubai. Call with questions.

                                                                                                    

FRANKLY SPOKEN 

“Those who are attacking this (Hydrogen Hubs) project, they're standing in the way of real progress. Clean energy progress is going to be good for our environment, good for job creation.”

Democratic Gov. Josh Shapiro said at the Philadelphia event with President Joe Biden announcing DOE’s Hydrogen Hubs.

“There are some very legitimate concerns about the downward trajectory of job quality in the auto industry,” said “If you do everything right, there is going to be a net job gain. But that’s small comfort to workers or communities who lose jobs because a facility shuts down. This

Devashree Saha, director of WRI’s U.S. clean energy economy program and lead author of a report on Michigan and EVs, A Roadmap to Michigan’s Electric Vehicle Future.

 

ON THE PODCAST

Book Outlines Global Market Challenge for Biden on CapCrude – In this week’s Bracewell PRG Lobby Shop podcast, expert Liam Donovan, Josh Zive and Capitol Hill expert Joe Brazauskas to close out the democracy-induced chaos that was the process of electing a new Speaker of the House. They chat about how we came to the Johnson conclusion and what this new leader of the House should be looking out for in the short and long term.

 

FUN OPINIONS

Liam Outlines Challenges Facing New Speaker – In an opinion piece for the New York Times, my Bracewell colleague Liam Donovan writes new Speaker Mike Johnson is well situated to bridge a divided conference even while resisting being caught up in the fray and avoiding the sort of commitments that would limit his options. Johnson is not your prototypical party leader, and his mere candidacy sent many in Washington scrambling for their Congressional Directory. And in some ways this was the point — a clean break from the McCarthy mold of speaker as pure political animal.

Indy Mayor Ballard: EVs will Improve Job Creation – In an opinion piece in the Indianapolis Star, former Mayor Greg Ballard and former Colorado Gov. Bill Ritter argue through bipartisan federal legislation, leadership from states and cities and private sector investments, electric vehicles are bringing a boom in American manufacturing and jobs. Leaders at all levels on both sides of the aisle need to recognize the tremendous opportunities transportation electrification brings. The EV revolution will create jobs, protect our security and improve public health, benefitting all Americans, regardless of political affiliation, location or economic status.

 

FROG BLOG

Bloomberg: China is Gunning for Deep Sea Mineral Lead, Too – In a blog for Bloomberg Opinion, columnist James Stavridis says China is trying to beat the US to the seabed's riches. They are resource poor but yet aggressive geopolitically and the technology is immature, which allows China to believe it will be profitable.  He adds the US to compete should approve UNCLOS treaty, provide tax incentive to domestic companies willing to participate in seabed mining – much as we now incentivize microchip manufacturing as a national-security imperative, and finally put together a consortium with our Western allies to conduct mining with a strategic objective.  

 

FUN FACTS

IEA on Global Energy Transition: The IEA’s World Energy Outlook is an exhaustive review of the transition, and includes a lot of data on the deployment of renewables, the downward trend of global greenhouse gas emissions, and the fate of fossil fuels.

 

IN THE NEWS

New Report Focuses on Russia Nat Gas Sector – A new report from the Energy Innovation Reform Project’s (EIRP) Russia Global Energy Role series was released and focused on Russia’s natural gas sector. The author is Tatiana Mitrova, who is a top expert on Russia’s energy sector now at the Columbia Global Energy Center. The key points in the report are 1) Russia’s natural gas sector (especially Gazprom) has absorbed more damage than any other part of its energy sector. 2) Due to Russia’s loss of its principal natural gas export market in Europe, considerable natural gas volumes are stranded inside Russia. 3) Russia is pursuing many options to use this gas, including greater domestic consumption (harder than it might seem due in part to lobbying against that from the Russian coal industry) as well as new exports to Central Asia and China (by pipeline) and to China and globally (by LNG tanker). 4) Finally, success will require time and significant investment, but could reshape global gas markets and financial and contracting arrangements. Failure would leave much gas unused, increasing global prices and likely leading to greater global coal consumption and higher global greenhouse gas emissions over a longer period.

Growth Urges GREET Model to Treasury on SAF – Growth Energy sent a letter to Treasury on Friday to adopt the GREET model that examines life-cycle impacts when it determines eligibility for sustainable aviation fuel tax credits under the Inflation Reduction Act. Treasury is expected to issue guidance before the end of the year on the credit for SAF, which will be critical in meeting the Biden administration’s goal to produce at least 3 billion gallons a year of the fuel by 2030. Growth Energy has been seeking to ensure its members can qualify for the credit, arguing in comments Friday that biofuels are “one of the few readily-available feedstocks for SAF production.” It contends that Treasury should certify the Energy Department’s GREET model to measure lifecycle greenhouse gas emissions as a “similar methodology” to the International Civil Aviation Organization’s CORSIA model included in the law.

BOEM Designates Four More Wind Areas in GoM – The Bureau of Ocean Energy Management (BOEM) Friday finalized four new Wind Energy Areas (WEAs) in the Gulf of Mexico. Together, the WEAs could support offshore wind projects with the potential to produce enough clean, renewable energy to power more than three million homes. This announcement follows the first-ever Gulf of Mexico offshore wind lease sale earlier this year, which only garnered one bid. 

 

ON THE SCHEDULE THIS WEEK

Energy Economists Talk Carbon Capture – The National Capital Area Chapter of the United States Association for Energy Economics holds a forum today at 12:00 p.m. carbon capture use and storage and carbon removal prospects. The speaker – Boston Consulting Group's Alex Dewar – will discuss the evolution of technologies and costs; the role of policy incentives in market adoption; and what sectors are best suited to employ CCUS and develop viable carbon management business models.

ELI Looks at Hydrogen – The Environmental Law Institute holds a webinar today at 12:00 p.m. on understanding Hydrogen. Clean hydrogen is expected to play a vital role in decarbonizing the U.S. economy and reducing greenhouse gas emissions. Understanding hydrogen’s potential role in decarbonization means learning about types of hydrogen and their various production processes.

AGA to Release its Winter NatGas Outlook – At a virtual media event today at 1:00 p.m., experts from the American Gas Association will provide AGA’s annual media briefing on the upcoming winter outlook. AGA staff will present observations on the natural gas market as the U.S. moves into the 2023-2024 winter heating season and discuss the factors driving natural gas markets as well as market fundamentals, data on planning preparedness, and the winter fuel costs forecast. To RSVP, email Adam Kay at akay@aga.org.

Forum to Tackle Europe Decarb – Today at 3:30 p.m., the Atlantic Council holds a discussion on Europe's progress and future outlook for diversifying and decarbonizing its energy supply and the EU's longer-term climate and security priorities. The event features a fireside chat with Ditte Juul Jørgensen, Director-General for Energy at the European Commission. The Director-General will discuss Europe’s progress and future outlook for diversifying and decarbonizing its energy supply since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and provide an update on the European Union’s preparations for the winter and longer-term climate and security priorities.

Forum to Look at China Critical Mineral Investment in Africa – The Wilson Center's China Environment Forum holds a discussion tomorrow at 9:30 a.m. on China's critical mineral investments in Africa. The panel will feature Jingjing Zhang (Center for Transnational Environmental Accountability); Claude Kabemba (Southern Africa Resource Watch); Emmanuel Umpula Nkumba (African Resources Watch); and Mutuso Dhliwayo, (Zimbabwe Environmental Law Association). The panelist will highlight stories on the impacts of Chinese overseas investment in the critical minerals sector in Africa. They also will discuss potential strategies to ensure the protection of the affected communities and ecosystems.

US-Africa Nuke Forum Set – The Atlantic Council, the Energy Department and the Nuclear Power Institute of the Ghana Atomic Energy Commission holds the U.S.-Africa Nuclear Energy Summit today and tomorrow.  There will be a panel on nuclear power in the US over 60 Years. The Summit is the first-ever Pan-African event to be focused on the future of nuclear power on the continent. This event will provide a distinguished platform for US officials to include those from government, academia, industry, and national laboratories; as well as other ministers, leaders, policymakers, and technical experts from across the continent to engage in critical dialogues on nuclear energy issues.

Norway Energy Advisor Addressed Future Action – The CSIS Energy Security and Climate Change Program hosts a forum tomorrow at 10:00 a.m. with Terje Aasland, Minister of Petroleum and Energy of Norway.  The event features a discussion on Norway’s vital role as an energy supplier, and how the U.S. and Norway are working together towards providing a stable energy supply and a sustainable and just transition.

ELI Forum Looks at Farm Bill – The Environmental Law Institute holds a forum tomorrow at 12:00 p.m. unpacking the environmental implications of the 2023 Farm Bill. Speakers will discuss what the Farm Bill is and why it is one of the most important environmental laws Congress will address this year. They will explain the wide and significant impact that agriculture has on all aspects of the environment, including climate change. USDA’s Bidisha Bhattacharyya is among the speakers.

Forum Focused on Wildfire Management – ConservAmerica and the Property and Environment Research Center (PERC) hold a forum tomorrow at 12:30 p.m. on strategies for effective wildfire management.  The event features a discussion with PERC Policy Director Hannah Downey,

Breakthrough Institute’s Patrick Brown, Co-Director for Climate and Energy, Washington Policy Center Director of Center for the Environment Todd Myers and R Street’s Chris Villarreal.  There will also be messages from Senator Steve Daines (R-MT) and Congressman Doug Lamborn (R-CO).

Senate Environment to Look at Extreme Weather Events – The Senate Environment Committee holds a hearing on Wednesday at 10:00 a.m. looking at the science of extreme event attribution and how climate change is impacting severe weather. Former DOE Science UnderSecretary Paul Dabbar is among those testifying.

SAFE, State Dept Sign Partnership on Critical Minerals – On Wednesday at 11:00 a.m., U.S. Department of State officials will host a live announcement and public-private partnership signing ceremony to advance work on critical minerals with the non-profit SAFE.  There will be a question-and-answer session open to the press. This follows closely on the heels of the Minerals Security Partnership ministerial earlier this month which was quite focused on addressing how to engage private sector investors and emerging minerals-producing countries on advancing critical minerals projects across the globe that promote resilient and diverse supply chains and uphold high environmental, social, and governance standards. Next week's announcement of a partnership with SAFE is in the same effort.

WRI Tackles Hydrogen – The World Resources Institute holds a webinar on Wednesday at Noon looking at the role of hydrogen for decarbonizing industry in the US. The event features government representatives, industrial leaders and hydrogen experts to discuss how hydrogen is a critical tool in our toolbox to abate industrial emissions, advance clean energy and address the climate crisis. Speakers will examine what the DOE Hydrogen Hub selections will mean for regional clean hydrogen production, consumption and community impacts; how to address safety and equity concerns; what the trajectory is for different hydrogen production pathways; and what investments governments and businesses need to make now and sustain to rapidly scale up clean hydrogen over the next decade if we are to avert climate disaster.

Financing Clean Energy at State Level – The Clean Energy States Alliance holds a forum on Wednesday at 1:00 p.m. on financing clean energy at the state level. Speakers from NYSERDA and DOE’s Loan Programs Office (LPO) will explain how New York is taking advantage of LPO’s new expanded Title 17 loan authority and how other states can reach similar agreements with LPO and access federal funding for clean energy projects.

EIRP Forum to Look at US-Korea Solar Manufacturing – On Thursday at 9:00 a.m., Energy Innovation Reform Project (EIRP) hosts an online discussion on the United States and South Korea have sought to buttress China’s dominance of global solar panel supply chains and boost their domestic manufacturing. The event will feature leading experts from both countries who have written important and timely papers on these issues.

Metals Company Holds ISA Meeting Preview – On Thursday at 9:00 a.m., Metals Company execs will hold a background conversation (+ on-the-record Q&A) on Thursday November 2nd at 9:00 a.m. with its team who will cover Mining Code development process status, moratorium statements and environmental concerns vs. real-world data.  This preview comes as the International Seabed Authority (ISA) convenes for another Council meeting today through November 8^th in Kingston, Jamaica.

Senate Energy Looks at CCUS, Direct Air Capture – The Senate Energy Committee holds a hearing on Thursday at 10:00 a.m. looking at opportunities and challenges in deploying carbon capture utilization and sequestration and direct air capture technologies.

Forum Looks at Climate, Energy, Insecurity – The Henry L. Stimson Center holds a forum on Thursday at 11:00 a.m. looking at how UN Peace operations can help address challenges. Speakers will explore how best to leverage the presence of UN Peace Operations in fragile states to adopt renewable energy technologies that can contribute to building lasting peace. Where does this potential exist and what are examples of how it has been demonstrated.

ACORE to Look at Connecting PJM, MISO Grids – The American Council on Renewable Energy holds an event on Thursday at 1:00 p.m. connecting PJM and MISO grids, looking at the benefits and challenges. Transmission constraints between the PJM Interconnection and Midcontinent Independent System Operator are costing consumers billions of dollars a year, with those costs expected to increase as the regions continue to decarbonize their power generation and electrify vehicle fleets.

 

IN THE FUTURE

Forum Looks at Chile, Energy Transition – The Woodrow Wilson Center holds a day-long forum next Monday November 6^th and Tuesday November 7^th on US-Chile climate action and the energy transition. Senior US and Chilean officials and private sector leaders will address public policies to attract investment–including for critical minerals, renewable energy, green hydrogen, and clean energy technologies–and to maintain high environmental standards and empower civil society actors.

EESI Talks COP28 – The Environmental and Energy Study Institute (EESI) holds a briefing next Tuesday November about what Congress can expect during the upcoming international climate negotiations in Dubai (COP28). Panelists will unpack the overall process of international climate negotiations, discuss the key topics on the agenda, review possible climate policy outcomes, and explore pathways for subsequent Congressional action. Rep. Nan Barragan is among the speakers.

Forum Look sat Ocean Carbon Removal – The AU’s Institute for Carbon Removal Law and Policy hold another forum on Tuesday November 7^th at 1:00 p.m. on the potential role of the Biodiversity Beyond National Jurisdiction Treaty in ocean-based carbon dioxide removal. Given the fact that many ocean-based carbon dioxide removal approaches will either be deployed in the open oceans or could have impacts in these areas, the BBNJ may prove to a key regulatory framework for the emerging industry.

WaPo Hosts Climate Event with Zaidi – The Washington Post Live will hold a This is Climate: How We Live news program on Wednesday November 8^th at 9:00 a.m. in The Post's D.C. headquarters featuring Eileen Fisher CEO Lisa Williams, White House National Climate advisor Ali Zaidi and Oyster Oyster chef Rob Rubba, who will discuss the ways ordinary citizens can help reduce the world’s carbon footprint. In a segment presented by WM, Tara Hemmer, chief sustainability officer for WM, discusses the unique role WM has in the circular economy when creating environmental solutions for its customers of all sizes – including some of the largest companies in North America.

Forum Looks at Climate Resilience – The Henry L. Stimson Center holds a webinar on Wednesday November 8^th at 9:00 a.m. on closing the resource divide on climate resilience. The costs of building climate resilience in developing countries are immense, in the range of $160-340 billion annually by 2030. A panel of experts will explore what gaps still exist in the climate financing landscape and what needs to be done at COP28 to fill them.

Forum Looks at Climate Services – The US Global Change Research Program holds a Climate Services Forum on Wednesday morning November 8^th at the Department of Interior’s Yates Auditorium. This Forum supports recommendations from the National Science and Technology Council’s Federal Framework & Action Plan for Climate Services, which recognizes the need to enhance the scope & integration of federal climate services in a whole-of-government framework.

EFI Report to Look at Energy Innovation – On Wednesday November 8^th at 10:00 a.m., the Energy Futures Initiative Foundation hosts an event premiering a new analytical report on opportunities to build upon current initiatives underway to further enhance DOE’s organizational structure and internal processes for an even more effective energy innovation enterprise. Former Energy Secretary Ernest Moniz and former Congresswoman, Secretary of the Air Force and current President of UTEP, Heather Wilson will speak.

Forum Looks at Nuclear – The Environmental Law Institute holds a webinar on Wednesday November 8^th at 1:00 p.m. on Nuclear Energy in 2023 looking at where it is and where it is headed. Nuclear energy advocates argue that the increased use of nuclear power is integral to combatting climate change and transitioning to clean energy. However, there are many concerns about nuclear energy’s risks, including environmental justice & nuclear waste management. Our friend and former NRC Commissioner Jeff Merrifield is among the speakers.

Forum Looks at Decarb of Heavy Industries – The NYU Law School’s Institute for Policy Integrity holds a forum on Wednesday November 8^th at 2:00 p.m. on research insights on industrial decarbonization. Panelists will share preliminary findings from their research and policy work focusing on efforts to decarbonize various industrial processes, including steel and chemicals manufacturing. The discussion will address the technological and policy changes needed to achieve these shifts as well as the role of academic research in the policymaking process.

Forum Looks at Energy Security Issues – The National Bureau of Asian Research holds a forum on Wednesday November 8^th at 4:00 p.m. on the revenge of energy security. Leading experts will discuss regional dynamics in Asia following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, including the impact of the Russia-China relationship and supply chain disruptions on future U.S. energy and economic security.

Capito Visits with Punchbowl Pop-Up – Punchbowl News managing editor Heather Caygle will interview Sen. Shelley Moore Capito (R-W.Va.) in a fireside chat on Thursday November 9^th at 9:00 a.m. about measures to address the opioid crisis. It is expected SMC will also address energy issues as well. 

Forum to Focus on APEC Summit – On November 13^th at 9:30 a.m., the Brookings Center for East Asia Policy Studies and the Japan Economic Foundation (JEF) will host a group of experts to assess the goals and potential outcomes of this year’s APEC summit. The first panel will focus on climate change and energy security, and the second panel will address the international trading system and supply chain resilience. This event will be open to attend in person or to watch online. Online viewers can submit questions via e-mail to events@brookings.edu or via Twitter using #APEC.

Gas Forum Set for San Antonio – The 7^th Annual US-Mexico Natural Gas Forum is set for San Antonio on November 13^th to 15^th at the Westin Riverwalk. This Forum focuses on exporting gas to Mexico, including the many elements involved in mobilizing U.S. production to satisfy growing Mexico natural gas and power demand.  

USEA Hosts Advanced Energy Technology Forum – The US Energy Assn hosts its Advanced Energy Technology Forum will be held on Tuesday November 14^th at 10:00 a.m.  The event delves into the realm of technological innovation within the energy sector, emphasizing research and development across corporate and government domains.  Speakers will include NREL’s Doug Arent, Idaho NL’s John Wagner, MIT’s Robert Stoner and our friend Rob Gramlich.

POLITICO Hosts Clean Fuels Conversation – On Wednesday November 15^th at 8:30 a.m. at the Royal Sonesta on Capitol Hill, POLITICO convenes leading officials from the administration, key congressional committees, states, and other stakeholders to explore the role of EVs, biofuels, hydrogen and other options in the clean fuel movement and how evolving consumer behaviors are influencing sustainable energy practices. We’ll also discuss barriers and solutions facing the clean fuel drive.