Energy Update: Week of October 21st

Friends,

What a week I’ve had here in South Africa.  I would encourage you to check out a few Facebook posts I made during the trip including my visits to the Cape of Good Hope, as well as hikes up Table Mountain and Lions Head.  Finally, we saw a great cricket match in addition to some great field hockey, but I am ready to head home tomorrow evening.

In Boston this past weekend, the 59^th Head of the Charles, The world's largest and most famous rowing competition attracting 400,000 spectators, 11.000 competitors and 2,400 volunteers was held. The first race took place at 7:45 a.m. on Friday with 60 rowers competing in the men’s senior veteran/grand veteran singles event, and the final race was yesterday afternoon. There were 73 races on the three-mile course over three days.

15 Days until election day!  It only seems to be getting closer and tighter, especially in the swing states.  We are monitoring closely and are happy to discuss. Remember to mark your calendars for the Bracewell PRG Pulse Post-Election Webinar at 10:00 a.m. on Wednesday November 6^th.

This week, the big event is Wednesday when SAFE holds a forum on global demand for critical minerals and nations struggle with supply chain vulnerabilities and geopolitical tensions. SAFE will also feature a forthcoming report that examines the policy landscape and proposes strategies to navigate these challenges. The report recommends and emphasizes the need for a multi-faceted approach that balances domestic production, international partnerships, and innovative practices.

Other events include a Brookings event with former U.S. lead negotiator on climate change Todd tomorrow, a Wednesday Atlantic Council; The Idaho National Laboratory and the University of Utah's Energy Futures Research Engine Frontiers Project meeting in Park City and a Thursday CSIS Sustainable Development and Resilience Initiative event discussing the state of support for global climate change adaptation and resilience efforts and the emerging resilience economy with John Podesta. Also on Thursday, USEA holds its Energy-Tech Connect Forum with EIA’s Joe Decarolis, EEI’s Dan Brouillette, NARUC’s Tony Clark, EPSA’s Todd Snitchler and Rich Powel of the Clean Energy Buyers Association.

Finally, breaking news this morning from the SCOTUS.  It has agreed to hear appeals in Tenth Circuit and Fifth Circuit rulings that reached different conclusions about whether legal challenges to EPA air pollution rules belong in the D.C. Circuit when rules are “national” in or in regional courts  when they are “local” in scope.

World Series Starts Friday in New York and it is a classic: Dodgers-Yankees. Brings back memories of Steve Garvey (who happens to be running a longshot race for Senate in Cali, Ron Cey and Tommy Lasorda, and Reggie Jackson, Thurmond Munson and Billy Martin. 

Call, text or email with any questions, the phone and computer are working in Cape Town. Back in the office on Wednesday morning straight from Dulles.

Best,

Frank Maisano

(202) 828-5864

C. (202) 997-5932                                                                                                       

FRANKLY SPOKEN

“The vital business of who pays and how much can be agreed in Baku, but we are not going there to renegotiate the Paris Agreement.”

UN Climate Change Executive Secretary Simon Stiell in a speech at the Brookings Institution’s Global Economy and Development Program Virtual Event on COP 29

ON THE PODCAST

DOE’s Chan Live on Volts to Discuss Technology Innovation – In this episode of Volts, host David Roberts sits down with Dr. Vanessa Chan, DOE’s Chief Commercialization Officer, to discuss the challenges of commercializing new clean energy technologies. Her office has helped develop a common vocabulary among stakeholders (“adoption readiness levels”) and concentrated the attention of public and private capital on certain key technologies (“pathway to liftoff” reports). It’s wonky stuff, but it has transformed and turbocharged DOE’s commercialization

FUN OPINIONS

Cement Experts Raise questions about EPA Life Cycle Labeling – A new op-ed in Real Clear Energy, MIT Cement sustainability experts write EPA must account for the whole life cycle in low carbon labels. When it comes to understanding the environmental impact of products and materials, EPA doesn’t require a tell-all label. The agency recently took an important step to address that gap. Unfortunately, its efforts fall short.

FROG BLOG

Infrastructure Needs Updates – In a blog for the Breakthrough Institute, our friend Matt Wald writes our Infrastructure is old and is in massive need of improvement. Physically smaller technologies, like next-generation microchips, march ahead, but for the big stuff, there is a stop-start stutter to the idea of adding new infrastructure. It’s fine to add factories that make computer chips, but at some point, the health of the infrastructure depends on deploying cement mixers, for highways, bridges, tunnels and runways.

FUN FACTS

IEA on EVs, Oil Demand: An interesting chart from the recent IEA World Energy Outlook shows two interesting things on the outlook for oil: 1) It is perhaps overly generous in its interpretation of how many EVs will be in the marketplace by 2035 (or maybe not given China rapid deployment) and 2) we still going to need a LOT of oil going past 2035.

IN THE NEWS

Gevo Get DOE Loan for SD Production Plant – DOE late Wednesday said that it is providing leading SAF-producer Gevo with a conditional commitment for a loan guarantee of $1.46 billion for its Net-Zero 1 project in South Dakota. This is the first large-scale alcohol-to-jet project to receive DOE LPO funding. The facility will use U.S.-sourced feedstocks and produce 60 million gallons of SAF, 1.3 billion lbs. of animal feed products, and 30 million lbs. of corn oil per year. Gevo’s press release on the announcement is linked and below. CEO Pat Gruber said:

“This marks a watershed moment for the Net-Zero 1 project and a critical step forward in Gevo’s mission to transform the aviation industry by providing a scalable, sustainable, and economical renewable-carbon-based jet fuel—SAF. This valuable commitment to help finance NZ1, if finalized, should also attract other capital investments to unlock SAF commercialization…”

DOE’s LPO Office Director Jigar Shah wrote in the DOE blog:

“As the aviation sector aims to meet its decarbonization goals, SAF will become increasingly vital. SAF is the only viable near-term option to decarbonize the airline industry, which is responsible for 11% of U.S. transportation emissions or 3.3% of total U.S. emissions.

DOE also announced two other LPO projects, including one for Montana Renewables facility in Great Falls, Montana which has been producing around 140 million gallons of biofuels every year of SAF and other fuels since.

SCOTUS Won’t Stay EPA Rule – The Supreme Court rejected a request to stay the EPA’s latest power plant rule saying in a brief order, the justices turned down a request from states, energy companies and other industry groups to put the rule on hold while their challenge in a federal appeals court moves forward. Justices Brett Kavanaugh and Neil Gorsuch expressed sympathy for the challengers’ arguments, but they noted that because the litigation is moving quickly in the lower court, they are unlikely to be affected by the rule for now. My Bracewell colleague Jeff Holmstead said the ruling highlights the Court’s reluctance to grant stays.  In its history, the Court has stayed just two rules — the Clean Power Plan back in 2016 and the Good Neighbor Rule earlier this year. He said the ruling was “hardly surprising.” He also said:

The Court's order doesn't exactly bode well for EPA.  Three justices have now said that they think the rule is probably unlawful. If the next administration doesn't revoke the rule and the DC Circuit upholds it, it will almost certainly go to the Supreme Court, and I think other justices will be skeptical of it, too.

Amazon Joins the Nuclear Parade – Amazon announced that it was investing in small nuclear reactors, coming just two days after a similar announcement by Google, as both tech giants seek new sources of carbon-free electricity to meet surging demand from data centers and artificial intelligence. The plans come as the owner of the shuttered Three Mile Island nuclear power plant said last month it plans to restart the reactor so tech giant Microsoft can buy the power to supply its data centers. All three companies have been investing in solar and wind technologies, which make electricity without producing greenhouse gas emissions. Now they say they need to go further in the search for clean electricity to meet both demand and their own commitments to cut emissions. Amazon and X-energy are collaborating to bring more than 5 gigawatts of new power projects online across the United States by 2039, representing the largest commercial deployment target of SMRs to date. The companies will initially support a four-unit 320-megawatt (“MW”) project with regional utility Energy Northwest in central Washington with the option to increase that project to 12 units and 960 MW. Amazon is immediately committing a direct investment in the Energy Northwest project to fund early development work that X-energy will perform. Amazon also signed an agreement with Dominion Energy to explore the development of a small modular nuclear reactor, or SMR, near Dominion’s existing North Anna nuclear power station. Nuclear reactors produce no carbon emissions.

ON THE SCHEDULE THIS WEEK

Coal Ash Assn Holds Fall Meetings – The American Coal Ash Assn holds its Fall 2024 ACAA Membership Meeting at the Hilton Lexington Downtown in Lexington, Kentucky today to Wednesday.  

DOE Holds Solar Webinar – DOE’s Solar Energy Technologies Office (SETO) is hosting a webinar today at 2:00 p.m. to provide an update on SETO’s Photovoltaics (PV) End-of-Life (EOL) Action Plan, which outlines a five-year strategy to establish safe, responsible, and economic solar PV EOL practices. While PV has a net positive environmental impact over a system’s life span, there are opportunities to further increase environmental benefits throughout its life cycle, from design to decommission. This webinar will provide an update on efforts to improve PV’s environmental impact since the release of the PV EOL Action Plan (March 2022), featuring several SETO-funded projects and updates from other DOE offices and federal agencies.

Book Event Features Goodman on Climate Threats to Security – The Women's Foreign Policy Group holds a book discussion today at 5:00 p.m. with Sherri Goodman on her book, "Threat Multiplier: Climate, Military Leadership, and the Fight for Global Security.”

GW Lecture Focuses on Climate National Security, Local Governance – Today at 5:00 p.m., Elliott School of International Affairs holds its Wenger Lecture on climate change, national security and local governance challenges.

Stern Headlines Brookings Event on Paris – Tomorrow at 9:15 a.m., Foreign Policy at Brookings will host the former U.S. lead negotiator on climate change Todd Stern in conversation with Sara Schonhardt of Politico to analyze the direction of U.S. policy toward climate change and to offer an insider’s perspective of the negotiations that led to the Paris climate agreement in 2015.

Wilson to Host Reuters Scheyder for Crit Minerals Book Talk – Tomorrow at 10:00 a.m., the Wilson Center's Environmental Change and Security Program holds a virtual book discussion with Reuters reporter Ernest Scheyder on his book "The War Below: Lithium, Copper and the Global Battle to Power Our Lives." The discussion will explore mineral conflicts in the US, China and beyond.

Forum Looks at Greenland-US Partnership – The Wilson Center's Polar Institute holds a virtual discussion tomorrow at 10:00 a.m., on 20 Years of Partnership between Greenland and the United States in the Arctic. This event will feature high-level discussions and practical case studies with distinguished participants, including Alan M. Leventhal, US Ambassador to the Kingdom of Denmark, Kenneth Høegh, Head of Greenland Representation in Washington, DC, Tobias Rehfeld, Head of the Department for Arctic and North America, Danish Ministry of Foreign Affairs, and Sharon Hudson-Dean, Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for Northern European, Baltic, and Arctic Affairs.

Forum Tackles Nuclear Landscape – The Henry L. Stimson Center holds a discussion tomorrow at 10:00 a.m. on navigating a shifting nuclear landscape from energy to defense, The event will explore the unprecedented transformation of the nuclear sector, where breakthroughs in energy innovation and the global race to modernize nuclear arsenals are reshaping both civilian and military landscapes. State’s Bonnie Jenkins and CNN’s Ella Nilsen are among the panelists.

Barbados PM to Talk Climate – Tomorrow at 4:00 p.m., Global Economy and Development at Brookings and the Boston University Global Development Policy Center will host Barbados Prime Minister Mia Amor Mottley for a keynote address on international financial architecture reform for the Global South. Brookings Institution Vice President Brahima Coulibaly will provide opening remarks. Kevin P. Gallagher, director of the Boston University Global Development Policy Center will share insights from the new Task Force report on reforming the International Monetary Fund. Senior Fellow Amar Bhattacharya will then moderate a ministerial-level panel to discuss the priorities, opportunities, and challenges of Global South leaders in advancing shared development and climate goals. Iyabo Masha, director of the Intergovernmental Group of 24, will provide closing remarks.

Forum Looks at American Energy – The Vandenberg Coalition holds a discussion tomorrow at 6:00 p.m.  on what can be done to ensure domestic energy production returns to a place of strength, lower prices for everyday Americans and prevent our adversaries from benefiting from our policies. The event will feature American Conservation Coalition (ACC) President Chris Barnard, former Senior Director for Resilience Policy on the National Security Council (NSC) Brian Cavanaugh, former Assistant Secretary of State for Energy Resources Frank Fannon, and former Senior Director for Energy and the Environment on the NSC Wells Griffith.

Forum Looks at Nuclear, Utah – The Atlantic Council; The Idaho National Laboratory and the University of Utah's Energy Futures Research Engine holds a Frontiers Project meeting on Wednesday at 11:00 a.m. in Park City, Utah focusing on the states' potential as a first-mover state into advanced nuclear technologies, especially for off-grid applications such as data centers, military installations, and mining. Rep. John Curtis is Keynote. This discussion will build on the 2022 and 2023 Frontiers Project Meetings in Jackson, Wyoming, and Anchorage, Alaska, which addressed the economic and energy security imperatives of establishing US leadership in meeting global demand for low-emissions production and manufacturing.

SAFE Forum Looks at Critical Minerals Challenges – On Wednesday at 11:45 a.m., SAFE holds a forum on global demand for critical minerals and nations struggle with supply chain vulnerabilities and geopolitical tensions. SAFE will also feature a forthcoming report that examines the policy landscape and proposes strategies to navigate these challenges. The report recommends and emphasizes the need for a multi-faceted approach that balances domestic production, international partnerships, and innovative practices.  Speakers include Abigail Hunter, Executive Director of SAFE’s Hoffman Center for Critical Minerals Strategy.

Forum to Look at UN Climate Conference – On Wednesday. Thursday and Friday at Noon, EESI holds a series of briefings about what Congress can expect during the upcoming United Nations climate negotiations in Baku, Azerbaijan (COP29). From the opening World Climate Action Summit to the intense negotiations of the conference’s final days, thousands of events will take place over the course of the two-week U.N. session. Whether traveling to Baku or observing COP29 from D.C., this briefing will guide policymakers on how to engage effectively. Panelists will preview key issues on the negotiating agenda, from setting the new global climate finance goal and determining metrics for climate adaptation to updating national climate goals. The second event will Look at methane and the third will address climate diplomacy.

Forum to Look at Nuclear Safety – The Georgetown University Law Center's Center on National Security and the Law holds a discussion on Wednesday at 5:00 p.m. focused on nuclear safety and security. IAEA Director General Rafael Mariano Grossi offers keynote remarks.

USEA Holds Energy Tech Forum – The US Energy Association holds its Energy-Tech Connect Forum on Thursday starting at 9:00 a.m. A number of great speakers including EIA’s Joe Decarolis, EEI’s Dan Brouillette, NARUC’s Tony Clark, EPSA’s Todd Snitchler and Rich Powel of the Clean Energy Buyers Association.

Podesta Headline Climate Event – On Thursday at 10:00 a.m., the CSIS Sustainable Development and Resilience Initiative holds an event to discuss the state of support for global climate change adaptation and resilience efforts and the emerging resilience economy. John Podesta will be among the speakers. This event is an opportunity to better understand the financing and implementation challenges current adaptation efforts are facing, and how governments and international institutions are shifting their approaches to emphasize adaptation- and resilience-oriented investments.

Forum Looks at Middle East NatGas, Hydrogen – The Middle East Institute holds a virtual discussion Thursday at 10:00a.m. on navigating Egypt's energy challenges on natural gas and green hydrogen.

AEI Forum Looks at NEPA – The American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research holds a discussion on Thursday at 4:00 p.m. on whether it is time to reform the NEPA Act of 1970.  The event will focus on environmental impact statements and permitting reforms. Nikki Chiappa of the Breakthrough Institute and BPC’s Xan Fishman are among the panelists.

IN THE FUTURE

ACP Offshore WINDPOWER Conference Set for AC – On Monday October 28^th to Wednesday October 30^th at the Convention Center in Atlantic City, NJ, America’s Clean Power holds its Offshore WINDPOWER Conference & Exhibition. The future of the U.S. offshore wind industry is bright but present challenges persist. This event is dedicated to convening top developers, government officials, and key stakeholders across the industry who are working to achieve the full promise of U.S. offshore wind.  Key Speakers include NJ Gov. Phil Murphy, BPOEM head Liz Klein and NABTU President Sean McGarvey. I will also be moderating a great panel on Tuesday on project misinformation.  

Election day for 2024 – Tuesday, November 5^th

COP 29 in Baku – On November 11^th, COP 29 begins in Baku.