Energy Update: Week of November 10th

Friends,

Over the weekend, the Rock ‘n Roll Hall of Fame held its induction extravaganza with some great acts including Jackson Browne inducting Warren Zevon with a version of Lawyers, Guns and Money. Perhaps the most emotional moment was during the Soundgarden segment, which included an induction speech by actor Jim Carrey (a Soundgarden superfan) who seemed to be fighting off tears as he talked about Chris Cornell, who died from suicide in 2017. We’ll see more when the show runs on TV in January.

Tomorrow is Veterans Day when we pause to honor the men and women who have served in our nation’s armed forces. Their commitment, sacrifice and leadership have safeguarded the freedoms we enjoy and inspires us every day. It is Important to extend our deepest gratitude to all veterans for their dedication and contributions to our country.

Also tomorrow, TV host Mario Lopez emcees this year’s National Civics Bee^® Championship tomorrow, which is sponsored by the US Chamber of Commerce. The Bee is an annual competition that inspires sixth, seventh, and eighth graders to engage in civics and contribute to their communities. Finalists from each state receives a trip to Washington, D.C., to compete in the finals tomorrow.

It sounds like – as many of us expected – that Congress will end the 40-plus day government shutdown this week. We knew the election would likely be the most important inflection point which seems to have borne out. The Senate voted last night on an agreement that had 8 moderate Democrats joining with Republicans to move a clean CR forward with funding through January, along with the promise of a debate/vote on health care. The House was once again not planning to hold any votes, but Speaker Johnson, who had warned members to be ready to return to Washington within 48 hours, is likely to get the legislation and try to pass it later in the week – that is of course unless Sect. Duffy cancels more flights! 

We also expect the roll out the Trump Administration’s new 5-year plan for oil and gas development this week. The Administration is expected to include Alaska, the West Coast and a sliver of the Eastern Gulf (more than 100 miles from Florida). Don’t expect that to limit or quell the backlash from Florida Democrats and Republicans. Just remember, market conditions will drive actual activity, but it is important to keep future options open. Happy to help with the discussion. 

COP 30 starts officially today in Belem, Brazil. There already has been some focus on the Belem 4X Biofuels pledge, released on Friday that aims to provide political and  international support to quadruple the use of sustainable biofuels and aviation fuels by 2035. We also expect major discussions of carbon accounting mechanisms (in fact the US Chamber held an event on the topic Friday and it featured Exxon CEO Darren Woods , and a significant push to take a stronger leadership role from the EU and others like China with the US taking a backseat (because the White House just doesn’t care about climate change, let alone international talk about it). We will see what happens, but currently, California Gov. Gavin Newsom is benefitting by filling the gap, and running around Belem to raise his profile among UN types.

Finally, speaking of sinking ships, today is the 50^th anniversary of the sinking of the Edmund Fitzgerald, memorialized by the Gordon Lightfoot classic song. If you are from Michigan, this lore is a huge deal and people are gathering at ceremonies around the Great Lakes to honor the memories of the 29 crew members who died on November 10, 1975, when the largest freighter on the Lakes at the time sank during a ferocious storm on Lake Superior.

I will be less accessible than normal this week for personal reasons but I will be monitoring things so reach out if needed. I will also be forwarding tidbits I pick up from COP30.  Call with questions.

Best,

Frank Maisano

(202) 828-5864

C. (202) 997-5932                                                                                                 

FRANKLY SPOKEN

“OPEC+ is blinking, but it’s a calculated move. By pausing, OPEC+ is protecting prices, projecting unity, and buying time to see how sanctions play out on Russian barrels.”

Rystad Energy’s head of geopolitical analysis, Jorge León, wrote in a note highlighting OPEC+’s recent move to implement a three-month hiatus on further quota hikes to prevent oversupply.

"Across the energy and utility space, stakeholder focus continues to shift from ESG to customer affordability."

A note from Jefferies research analysts today focused on gas pipeline movement in the Northeast.

ON THE PODCAST

ITC, EEI Discuss Importance of Permitting to Meeting America’s Future Energy Needs – In this week’s new episode of EEI’s Electric Perspectives podcast, EEI President and CEO Drew Maloney is joined by Krista Tanner, President of ITC Holdings, the nation’s largest independent electricity transmission company. In this conversation, they discuss why permitting reform is essential to strengthening America’s energy grid, creating good-paying jobs, and delivering reliable, affordable electricity to customers nationwide.

FUN OPINIONS

Mastio: Blaming Data Centers for Increasing Utility Prices in Wrong – In his column in the Kansas City Star, national columnist Dave Mastio writes data centers are wrongly taking the blame for electricity price hikes. He says those calling for action (like Sen. Josh Hawley) may be right that rising electric rates are causing people around the country a lot of pain, blaming Big Tech’s data centers and old tech’s utilities for hurting consumers isn’t the right diagnosis.

Gates Essay Causes Pre-COP Stir – I know you may have seen the reporting on this essay by Bil Gates, but I thought I might send it along as COP begins for you to review.  In the essay, titled "Three Tough Truths About Climate," Bill Gates argues against a "doomsday" view of climate change, stating it is not an existential threat but a serious problem that humanity will survive. He proposes prioritizing human welfare, health, and prosperity, suggesting that investments should focus on adapting to a warming world through measures like climate-resilient crops and better infrastructure. He also contends that temperature is not the best metric for measuring progress on climate change, and that a focus on development and reducing suffering is more effective than solely focusing on near-term emissions goals.

FROG BLOG

AGA Offers Tips for Winter Prep – With winter getting closer, the American Gas Assn says in a blog it is a good time to get your home ready for colder weather. A little preparation now can help lower bills, improve comfort and keep equipment running smoothly all season. Weatherization, draft stopper and routine maintenance go a long way to saving money, allow furnaces to hum and keeping families comfortable.

Grumet: Affordability on Ballot – In a LinkedIn post, America’s Clean Power CEO Jason Grumet writes energy affordability was on the ballot last week. The results tell us that voters feel the pressure of higher energy costs, and that they do not want cuts to wind, solar, storage or other clean energy sources that increase supply at affordable prices. At a moment when the cost of living is unrelentingly high and demand for electricity is soaring, policymakers from both parties must recommit to an all-of-the-above energy strategy.

FUN FACTS

EV Realities: The global EV transition was built on too-aggressive assumptions about cost, policy and consumer uptake that have not held. For too long, governments, capital markets and some automakers convinced themselves that 100 percent EV mandates and subsidies could bend consumer behavior and industrial economics to their will. Reality is proving tougher. (source Tammy Klein)

IN THE NEWS

COP 30 Leaders Forum Produces Biofuels, SAF Pledge – As I expected, some early action in Brazil before the kickoff of next week’s COP30 forum in Belem.  Brazilian President Lula rolled out the Belém 4X Pledge on Sustainable Fuels during the Global Climate Leaders’ Summit. “Belém 4x” aims to provide political support and foster international cooperation to at least quadruple the use of sustainable biofuels and aviation fuels and by 2035. The Belém 4X Pledge on Sustainable Fuels was co-sponsored by Brazil, Italy, and Japan and endorsed by 16 more countries in advance of the Climate Leaders’ Summit. Brazil indicated that they will use their 2026 COP Presidency to increase the number of countries supporting this initiative. Initial signatories include Armenia, Belarus, Brazil, Canada, Chile, Guatemala, Guinea, India, Italy, Japan, Maldives, Mexico, Mozambique, Myanmar, the Netherlands, Panama, the Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK), Sudan, and Zambia. Our friends at Gevo, Repsol, and a number of biofuels groups have all supported the approach from the early discussions, through the policy recommendation process, to now as the push for broad support.  Below is a statement From Gevo’s CEO Pat Gruber and some details from the BCSE member Molecule Group (who was the organizer of this entire process.)

The Details on the Pledge – Brazilian President Lula urged countries to support the Belém 4X Pledge on Sustainable Fuels during the Global Climate Leaders’ Summit. “Belém 4x” aims to provide political support and foster international cooperation to at least quadruple the use of sustainable fuels by 2035. The Pledge is underpinned by IEA’s recent Delivering Sustainable Fuels report, which outlines a pathway to achieve 4X sustainable fuels under existing policy frameworks. Sustainable fuels include hydrogen, hydrogen derivatives, biogas, biofuels, and synthetic fuels. Pour friends at the Molecule Group coordinated this effort and called it an important signal that sustainable fuels are fundamental to achieving energy security, fostering sustainable development, and mitigating climate change.

EU NatGas, Methane Issues Raising Concerns – The EU methane Rule have been under the radar for some time but seem to be coming to a head soon. Cargoes of natgas could be diverted from Europe unless the EU makes major changes to its methane emissions rules, risking a shortage just as the bloc introduces a ban on Russian fuel, our friends at the FT report. The methane law will force all fuel importers to account for leaks in their supply chains and are overly burdensome. The regulation’s stringent leak detection and repair requirements—especially quarterly inspections and rapid repair timelines—are seen as costly and logistically challenging, particularly for smaller operators and imported energy suppliers. Industry groups argue that the compliance costs may outweigh the environmental benefits, potentially discouraging investment in European gas infrastructure.

NY NatGas Pipeline Gets Green Light from States – New York Gov. Kathy Hochul signed off on the Northeast Supply Enhancement pipeline Friday after the Department of Environmental Conservation and the New Jersey Department of Environmental Protection issued the project key permits to move forward. The previously controversial project will run 24 miles from New Jersey, across the Raritan Bay, to connect to the pipeline system in the Rockaways and bring fuel to New York City. As New York’s colder months inch closer and with the threat of energy shortages downstate, this will add a much-needed boost to meet increasing demand in NYC.

New Report Highlights Offshore Wind Benefits for Reliability, Meeting Demand – A new independent analysis by Charles River Associates (CRA) conducted for the offshore wind advocacy group Turn Forward was released today to highlights offshore wind’s reliability value, proximity to coastal demand centers, and contribution to an “everything-that-works” energy approach. Given Interior Secretary Doug Burgum’s recent claims about offshore reliability and costs, this report provides essential insight to each of these issues.  It also underscores the impact that offshore wind can have in meeting power demand challenges in key regions addressing increasing consumer demand and data centers. As power use rises from data centers, manufacturing, and electrification, the report—“The Contribution of Offshore Wind to Grid Reliability & Resource Adequacy”—identifies offshore wind as a scalable, near-term solution that delivers dependable generation during peak demand hours and complements existing power sources such as natural gas. The report calls for added generation capacity from multiple resource types to avoid grid reliability issues that result in higher ratepayer costs, diminished load growth, or both. It cites offshore wind as a scalable option that can help deliver power during periods of high system stress—evenings after sunset and very cold days when natural gas systems face increased outage risks and constrained fuel supply.

“[Offshore wind] provides an additional and complementary pathway to add new generation with high-capacity accreditation and strong reliability contributions to the grid. … Most importantly, OSW has strong performance during key periods of emerging grid stress and relatively steady output year-round. Also, it has the ability to be built at scale and brings locational advantages due to its siting near coastal load centers where new generation is otherwise difficult to build.”

According to the authors, maintaining reliability will require a diverse mix of resources including natural gas, storage, nuclear, demand response, and renewables. Across U.S. electricity markets, offshore wind receives among the highest capacity accreditation and reliability contribution values of any renewable resource.  In some regions, it achieves reliability contribution values that are comparable to, or exceed, certain dispatchable technologies.

Key Findings from the CRA Report

• Growing Reliability and Affordability Risks: North American Electric Reliability Corporation (NERC) projects national load growth of roughly 120 GW this decade, driven by data centers, manufacturing, and electrification, while net new supply additions lag behind—placing real pressure on the grid to maintain reliability and affordability.
• Seasonal Shifts: Grid risk is shifting from summer to winter as heating electrification accelerates and gas supply faces infrastructure constraints and fuel competition from building heating.
• Offshore Wind’s Contribution: OSW achieves among the highest ELCC values of any renewable—roughly twice that of solar, for example—and provides steady nighttime and winter output aligned with emerging risk periods.
• Complementary Role: OSW generation complements gas and storage, helping stabilize portfolios and reduce fuel concentration risk.
• Scalability Near Load Centers: Offshore wind can deliver capacity directly into coastal urban regions where siting new onshore plants or transmission is difficult.
• Dynamic Accreditation: ELCC values for offshore wind are expected to decline only after several gigawatts have been added successfully—reflecting the resource’s success in shifting periods of system risk away from the most critical hours, not a loss of performance.
• Legacy technologies may not be enough: In regions experiencing rapid load growth and constrained infrastructure—particularly along the coasts—new natural gas, solar, storage, and onshore wind additions may be insufficient to meet demand, given supply-chain and siting limitations. While new infrastructure investments are expected to ease constraints and supply chains should stabilize over time, these buildouts may not advance quickly enough to match the pace of projected load growth.

ON THE SCHEDULE THIS WEEK

COP 30 Meeting – The 30^th UN climate conference will take place on November 10-21 in Belém, Brazil. The event will bring together world leaders, scientists, non-governmental organizations, and civil society to discuss priority actions to tackle climate change. COP30 will focus on the efforts needed to limit the global temperature increase to 1.5°C, the presentation of new national action plans (NDCs) and the progress on the finance pledges made at COP29.

EEI Financial Conference Set – The Edison Electric Institute (EEI) holds its 60^th Financial Conference today and tomorrow at the Diplomat Beach Resort in Hollywood, Florida. CNBC’s Brian Sullivan will host electric company executives for a series of live interviews starting today around 2:00 p.m. The event brings together electric company leaders, investors and Wall Street analysts, and technology company executives to discuss the opportunities and challenges facing the electric power industry.

Danley Headlines NARUC Seattle Event – NARUC holds its annual meeting and education conference in Seattle today though Wednesday. Speakers include DOE Deputy Secretary James Danley is the keynote speaker.

BCSE Looks at Solutions in Belem Meeting – The Business Council for Sustainable Energy holds a virtual discussion from Belem today at 1:00 p.m. on scaling sustainable energy solutions for 2030. The International Council for Sustainable Energy (ICSE) will co-host a side event with the World Green Economy Organization on the policy frameworks and business capacity needed to achieve the 2030 energy transition goals. Industry leaders will discuss how cutting-edge technologies, smart partnerships, and workforce strategies are accelerating clean energy deployment, boosting efficiency, and keeping energy affordable. They will hold a second event on Thursday looking at grid upgrades for communities, the economy and climate. This panel will bring together business executives and local government leaders to explore how grid modernization can accelerate emissions reductions, enhance resilience, and expand opportunity. See all of the week’s BCSE events HERE.

RFF Look sat Energy Infrastructure – Resources for the Future holds a virtual discussion today at 1:00 p.m. on obstacles to energy infrastructure with clean energy and the National Environmental Policy Act, The webinar convenes a panel of experts to discuss what is known about energy projects completing the NEPA process, the evolving policy landscape, and the role of potential NEPA reforms as a part of a broader congressional compromise on permitting. Art Frasse, former CEQ official Ted Duver and former Senate Environment counsel Elizabeth Horner speak.

Hudson Tackles EU-China Energy Security – The Hudson Institute holds a discussion today at 2:00 p.m. on NATO, energy security and Europe-China relations.  Hudson experts host Lithuanian Foreign Minister Kęstutis Budrys for a discussion on collective defense, energy and economic issues, the Lithuanian perspective on relations with China, and more.

VETERAN’S Day – Tuesday November 11^th

Bracewell Environmental Law Seminar Set to Talk Politics, Nuclear – Bracewell's Environment, Lands and Resources team on Wednesday for our Fall 2025 Environmental Law Seminar with insights on crucial topics, including clean fuels, permitting reform, natural resources and OSHA. In addition to special guest speaker, Brooke Paup, the chairwoman of the Texas Commission on Environmental Quality (TCEQ), this year’s seminar will feature Bracewell’s Andrew Shaw and Joe Brazauskas to talk politics and nuclear.

Brookings Looks at Climate Adaptation – On Wednesday at 9:30 a.m., the Brookings Center for Sustainable Development will host a conversation on how innovations in fiscal policy and climate finance can promote equality and sustainability. The event aims to connect evidence to practice, informing the formulation of fiscal policy, regulatory design, and investment strategies that advance gender equality and resilience. The event will include a brief welcome, a panel discussion, and a fireside chat.

POSTPONED: USEA Holds Energy, Manufacturing Forum –The US Energy Assn discussion on Thursday at 2:00 p.m., on accelerating US energy and manufacturing goals has been postponed due to the government shutdown. This discussion will explore practical solutions to bring manufacturing back home, accelerate supply chains, and meet the Administration’s energy, AI, and manufacturing goals.

AAAS Holds PFAS Forum – The American Association for the Advancement of Science Center for Scientific Evidence in Public Issues holds a virtual discussion on Thursday at 2:00 p.m. looking at PFAS (Per- and Polyfluoroalkyl Substances) emissions, exposure and emerging research.

Forum Looks at Climate Financing – The Center for Global Development and CGIAR hold a discussion on Thursday at 3:00 p.m. rethinking climate finance allocations. Discussions will focus on which countries may be considered “particularly vulnerable to the adverse effects of climate change,” the limitations of existing vulnerability indices, the current patterns of adaptation finance, and the drivers of resilience.

CSIS Holds Japan Energy Outlook Forum – The CSIS Energy Security and Climate Change Program is hosting the U.S. launch of the IEEJ Outlook 2026 on Friday at 10:30 a.m. Joseph Majkut, Director, CSIS Energy Security and Climate Change Program, will moderate a conversation with Dr. Ken Koyama, Senior Managing Director and Chief Economist, Institute of Energy Economics, Japan (IEEJ), and Dr. Yoshikazu Kobayashi, Senior Research Director, IEEJ.

RFF Biofuels Forum Continues Discussion – Resources for the Future holds a virtual discussion on Friday at 1:00 p.m. on the role of policy in biofuel adoption. The discussion will look at federal and state biofuel policies interaction, the effects of the interactions on policy outcomes and learned experiences about how federal and state biofuel policies can be designed to best meet environmental and economic goals.  Harvard’s James Stock among the speakers.

IN THE FUTURE

CEN Forum to Address Community  Engagement – Next Monday November 17^th at Noon, the Conservative Energy Network holds an interactive webinar on community engagement for advancing clean energy initiatives. The event will explore how to effectively build trust, foster collaboration, and mobilize local voices in support of energy innovation. This session will highlight proven strategies for community outreach, storytelling, and coalition-building. Attendees will gain practical tools to: Engage key stakeholders and community members in meaningful ways, navigate local concerns and build public support for energy projects, strengthen partnerships with grassroots organizations and local leaders, and communicate clean energy benefits through values-based messaging.

ConservAmerica to Honor Sens. McCormick, Sheehy – Next Monday at 6:00 p.m. at the Capitol Hill Club, the ConservAmerica will hold its annual Roosvelt Conservation Caucus Reception. This year, the event honors Conservation Champions Sens. Dave McCormick and Tim Sheehy, as well as Reps. Celeste Maloy and Jen Kiggans.

Heatmap Event looks at Clean Energy Manufacturing – On Tuesday November 18^th at 5:00 p.m., Heatmap News will host a forum at Arlo to look at onshoring the electric revolution.  Top lawmakers and business leaders as we explore the federal push to onshore manufacturing and the supply chain — and what it means for industry. Speakers include Sen. Catherine Cortez-Mastio and many more. 

Forum to Look at Combating China EVs Lead – On Thursday November 20, at noon, the Electrification Coalition will host a critical U.S. veteran-led discussion on America's industrial competitiveness and national security in the face of China's growing dominance in critical minerals and advanced manufacturing. This webinar, hosted by our Veterans for EVs initiative, will examine how Chinese control over lithium, cobalt, and rare earth elements creates vulnerabilities for both our defense capabilities and our competitiveness in the global civilian automotive market. The panel of veteran experts will explore the intersection of national security and industrial strategy, discussing how American manufacturing leadership in key sectors—including electric vehicles, defense technologies, and advanced energy technologies—is essential for maintaining our competitive edge and protecting our national interests.

RFF Biofuels Forum Series Continues on Lifecycle Issues – On Friday November 21^st, Resources for the Future holds a virtual discussion on lifecycle assessment (LCA) models used in existing policies to incentivize biofuel production. The discussion will look at major areas of debate in the emissions accounting space and what LCA assumptions—including the treatment of indirect land use change—matter.

NatGas Forum is Set – The North American Gas Forum will be held on December 1^st to 3^rd in Washington, D.C.. to look at issues driving strategy and investment across the U.S. energy landscape. As policy shifts and infrastructure demands intensify, these sessions will set the tone for pragmatic, solutions-driven dialogue. Speakers include Interior Secretary Doug Burgum, AGA CEO Karen Harbert, ACP head Jason Grumet, AXPC head Anne Bradbury and a bunch of industry experts (including our friend Khary Cauthen of Cheniere).

Gevo CEO, Senators, Reps to Address Energy, AI Forum – U.S. Energy Stream holds the 6^th Energy Innovation & AI Forum 2025 on December 3^rd and 4^th at the Cosmos Club.  Forum has been established as the premier bipartisan, off-the-record platform in Washington, DC, convening U.S. Senators, Members of Congress, and top executives from the energy, finance, manufacturing, and technology. During the Forum, we dive deep into the strategies, policies, and breakthroughs that strengthen  the energy security and economic growth for the United States and our allies. Gevo CEO Pat Gruber, Sens. Pete Ricketts and Tim Sheehy  (R-NE) and a bunch of House members will speak.