Energy Update: Week of March 9th

Friends,

I hope you we able to “Spring forward” easily yesterday. While I hate losing an hour of sleep, I always like the extra daylight in the evening.

NCAA March Madness is springing forward this week with conference tournaments as we race towards Sunday evening’s NCAA Men’s (6pm) and Women’s (8pm) Basketball Selection Shows. First Four games start the following Tuesday for the Men and following Wednesday for the Women. DIII hoops tourneys launched over the weekend with defending champ Trinity, CT (two of my Bracewell PRG stratcomm colleagues George Felcyn and Rebecca Brown are Bantam alums) and women’s powerhouse NYU (defending 2-time national champions who have won 87 straight games) taking top seeds. See more at www.D3hoops.com. DII Selections shows were late last night with Grand Valley (MI) and Texas Woman’s were the field’s top Women’s seeds, while Nova SE, Cal State-East Bay and the Washburn KS Ichabods (one of my favorite College nicknames) took the top Men’s seeds.

Finally, don’t sleep on the NCAA Women’s Frozen Four: selection show was yesterday morning and Wisconsin and Ohio State will likely clash for the sixth straight year in the Championship. You will see a bunch of the players in action that you saw on the US Women’s Gold medal team and in the Olympics overall, including Wisconsin’s Caroline Harvey, Laila Edwards, Ava McNaughton and Kristen Simms; Ohio State’s Joy Dunne, Mira Jungåker, Jenna Raunio, Hilda Svensson and Sanni Vanhanen; and Minnesota’s Abby Murphy.

On the policy good news front, bipartisan Senate permitting negotiations are resuming as Sens. Whitehouse (D-RI) and Heinrich (D-NM) agreed to return to the negotiating table after the Interior Department said it would continue processing of solar and onshore wind project reviews. Still a long way to go to address this generational opportunity to fix America’s broken permitting system, but it is another good step forward. Look for this to be on the agenda of interested parties like the more than 600 signers of this US Chamber letter.

The impacts on energy markets from the Iran military conflict continues to take up most of the attention. While it is still early in the process, the recent price spike on Crude has shaken markets some after an initially tepid response.  Both, volume of disruption in gas and crude markets and the duration of the disruption remain the key factors for understanding the direct, lasting impacts.

The United States’ emergence as the world’s leading LNG supplier has helped stabilize energy markets in Europe and Asia. Without access to U.S. LNG, many allies would have faced far more severe economic and energy disruptions. That role is likely to grow as new export capacity comes online, including expansions from companies such as Venture Global LNG and additional output from existing exporters like Cheniere Energy. As we move into spring, seasonal factors should also provide some relief, with warmer weather moderating natural gas demand and prices. Of course, the opposite dynamic typically applies to crude oil and gasoline, which tend to rise as driving demand builds toward the summer travel season.

All of this is to say: we will need to continue watching markets closely over the next several weeks, even as the Trump Administration explores different approaches to lowering energy costs and limiting broader market impacts.

Speaking of Natgas, a new WoodMackenzie study out this morning models compliance challenges and costs with the EU Methane Emissions Regulation (see more details below). And the Administration stays focused on it in Asia toward the end of this week when the Indo-Pacific Energy Security Ministerial and Business Forum (IPEM) is held in Tokyo, Japan convening of Ministers, CEOs and senior leaders, including Secretaries Wright and Burgum and EPA Administrator Zeldin. And don’t look now, but President Trump said on Truth Social that he will attend the White House Correspondents’ Association dinner in April. Woo-hoo, I guess I will have to go this year!!

The House is out of session this week, while the Senate will convenes Monday focused on nominations and final votes on a bipartisan affordable-housing measure.  Outside of that, it is Water Power Week for the National Hydropower Association featuring keynoter Sen. Lisa Murkowski.

Countdown to CERA week in Houston is ON!  With Energy markets being roiled by the Iran conflict, the event’s focus on the global energy agenda could not be better timed. I am scheduling meetings for the Bracewell Starbucks Office agenda, so let me know when you are available and we can connect you on numerous topics including oil/gas issues; Iran impacts; permitting reform; nuclear; Aviation fuels/biofuels; pipeline, transmission and other infrastructure; LNG and much more.  

The National Park Service has made its prediction on Washington’s spring rite of passage: the Cherry Blossoms’ bloom. National Mall and Memorial Park Superintendent Kevin Griess unveiled the projection saying the Yoshino cherry trees along the Tidal Basin will likely reach peak bloom from March 29^th to April 1^st.

Call with questions.

Best,

Frank Maisano

(202) 828-5864

C. (202) 997-5932

FRANKLY SPOKEN

“As we move forward, we expect that there will be no further interference with already-permitted wind projects and that the initial movement we’ve seen on solar project permitting will accelerate, and other renewable projects will move forward as well.”

Sen. Sheldon Whitehouse, ranking member of the Environment Committee, and Sen. Martin Heinrich, ranking member of the Energy and Natural Resources Committee, announcing they have agreed to reopen negotiations on permitting reform.

"It's just fear and perception, the unknown that this could be some long drawn-out crisis, but it won't be. Progress is going very fast. The world is abundantly supplied with energy, thanks to President Trump's energy dominance agenda. The United States is a net exporter of oil, net exporter of natural gas. We're in contact with our allies. This is a disruption on the way to a much better place to end a 47-year war against America."

Secretary Chris Wright on Fox News Sunday.

ON THE PODCAST

JMart Talks Early Midterms with Bracewell PRG Podcast – Politico’s Jonathan Martin joined Bracewell PRG podcast The Lobby Shop hosts Josh Zive and Liam Donovan this week to unpack the first contests of the 2026 election cycle. They break down key races in Texas, as well as North Carolina and Arkansas and what the early results could mean for the fight for Congress.

Iran Impacts on Energy Markets Detailed – On this week's Columbia Energy Exchange podcast episode, host Jason Bordoff speaks with four CGEP experts, Richard Nephew, Daniel Sternoff, Anne-Sophie Corbeau, and Dr. Karen Young, about the widening conflict, risks to oil and gas flows, and what it could mean for Gulf states and global energy security.

FUN OPINIONS

Trump Should Claim Win With Offshore Wind – In an op-ed in the Daily Caller, C3 President Nick Loris writes the biggest casualty of the President’s largely successful harassment campaign against offshore wind could be realizing American energy dominance. A lasting legacy for any administration seeking energy dominance would be comprehensive permitting reform. Energy abundance requires removing regulatory constraints and creating market opportunities to meet rising demand. Today’s permitting system remains too slow, too litigious, and too uncertain for nearly every form of energy. Fixing a broken permitting system can achieve all of these objectives. It will strengthen U.S. competitiveness and provide the affordable, dependable power we need for decades.

2026 Will be Year for Energy Progress – In an op-ed in The Hill, Rep. Gabe Evans and ClearPath’s Jermey Harrell write supporting the development and deployment of all types of energy — from advanced nuclear and enhanced geothermal to solar, wind, storage, and natural gas with carbon capture — is a good first step toward providing safe, reliable and affordable energy. We must double down on increasing domestic production or local utilities will not be able to meet demand. Republicans did their part in 2025 to provide meaningful relief to American families and have both the playbook and strong leadership to do even more. By pursuing commonsense, conservative policy, Republicans stand ready to lower costs for families and businesses and secure American energy dominance for the future.

FROG BLOG

Reams, Jacobson: An Energy Plan to Meet the Moment – In a new op-ed in RealClearEnergy, Citizens for Responsible Energy Solutions (CRES) President and CEO Heather Reams and the Business Council for Sustainable Energy's (BCSE) President Lisa Jacobson penned about America's growing energy needs and how the nation can meet the moment. Pointing to BCSE/BNEF’s 2026 Sustainable Energy in America Factbook, they write a broad portfolio of energy technologies drove U.S. power generation to reach its highest volume in two decades. With the backing of long-term federal policy support, these sectors are poised to meet surging energy demand and capitalize on the momentum of our country’s energy expansion. Now is the time to work together to realize America’s energy abundance.

FUN FACTS

Iran Natural Gas Impacts Hit Europe, Asia Much Harder than US: The U.S. has been the world's largest natural gas producer since 2011, and since 2022, it's also been the largest exporter of LNG, the fastest-growing segment of global gas trade. That dominance provides a cushion when overseas supply is disrupted. Natural gas prices immediately spiked in Europe and Asia following strikes on Iran, but the impact in the United States has been far more muted — so far, anyway.

China Was Getting Almost All of Iran’s Crude Exports: In 2025, China imported nearly all of Iran’s crude oil exports, a vast turnaround from just 10 years earlier. Before 2018, Iran's buyer base was geographically diverse — including Syria, South Korea, India, Turkey, and Japan — with China accounting for a third of purchases. That has changed fundamentally through sanctions evasion. China now absorbs  almost 95% of Iran's total petroleum exports. Couple this action with recent action in Venezuela, where they also took nearly all of Venezuela’s exports and you see the difficulty China faces as it still demands significant oil resources.

IN THE NEWS

WoodMac Study Focuses on EU Gas Imports, Methane – Early this morning, IOGP Europe and FuelsEurope released a study undertaken by WoodMackenzie that models compliance with the EU Methane Emissions Regulation. The study shows that it is impossible for European importers to meet methane reporting requirements beginning in 2027, and how penalties associated with noncompliant imports threaten EU oil and gas supplies beginning in January. The report follows at least eight letters and statements from EU and US industry in 2025 warning repeatedly that the rules are unworkable, threaten the security of EU gas supplies, and that the Commission should “stop the clock” to delay implementation, as it has done with other rules (excerpts from these letters can be found on pages 14-16 here).

• Full Report
• Fact Sheet
• Slide Deck

From 2027, the EU Methane Emissions Regulation introduces new importer requirements for natural gas and crude oil, affecting which supplies can access the EU market. Importers must demonstrate that countries or producers from which the natural gas and crude oil is sourced meets Monitoring, Reporting and Verification (MRV) requirements equivalent with EU criteria. Non-compliance would trigger penalties. However, the requirements as currently designed are so stringent that no country is deemed equivalent, and only 7% of global gas and crude oil production meets the producer-level equivalence.

• Global availability of EU-compliant gas falls short of EU demand from 2027 onwards. Wood Mackenzie estimates that gas prices could rise to historically high, unsustainable levels, with demand destruction becoming the primary balancing mechanism.

• Up to 43% of EU gas imports (≈114 bcm) could be excluded from the market in 2027 (see slide below).

• This is comparable to the supply gap caused by the reduction in Russian gas supplies to the EU after 2022.

• Even when modelling 10 supplier countries as compliant (through a modification to country-level equivalency requirements), the study still shows a significant gas supply gap and subsequent price impact.

This will affect the affordability of gas supply for households, power generation, and energy-intensive industries, increasing the use of coal and carbon leakage in the process.

Report Recommendations – Avoiding severe disruption to Europe’s gas & oil supply, and refining capacity requires a Stop-the-Clock process to:

• Give all stakeholders time to put in place sufficient workable solutions on aspects such as traceability and verification.

• Make targeted adjustments in primary legislation incl. to MRV equivalence, to enable global compliance and reflect traceability realities.

• Ensure pragmatic implementation of the Regulation.

• Taken together, this would allow the EU to advance its methane mitigation agenda while safeguarding the affordability and security of energy supply.

Cameco Signs Long-Term Uranium Supply Agreement with India – Cameco has entered a long-term agreement to supply uranium to the Government of India’s Department of Atomic Energy, for use in the country’s fleet of nuclear reactors. The agreement will see Cameco supply nearly 22 million pounds of uranium ore concentrate to India over a nine-year period on market-related price terms, with a total contract value estimated at approximately $2.6 billion. India currently has 24 operating reactors along with ambitious plans to deploy dozens more to reach 100 GW by 2047. Deliveries under the contract are expected to begin in 2027 and run through 2035 in alignment with Cameco’s long-term contracting strategy. The volumes under this contract were included in the total long-term contracting volumes and in the expected five-year realized uranium price sensitivity analysis, disclosed in the 2025 annual Management’s Discussion and Analysis in February 2026. Cameco’s CEO Tim Gitzel attended an event in Delhi today to celebrate the agreement alongside Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney and Saskatchewan Premier Scott Moe, highlighting the strong diplomatic and commercial trade relationships between the countries.

Reams Joins Nat’l Lab Foundation Board – CRES President and CEO Heather Reams was appointed to the Board of Directors of the Foundation for the National Laboratory of the Rockies. The Foundation for the National Laboratory of the Rockies is the designated charitable foundation supporting the National Laboratory of the Rockies. Its mission is to advance an affordable and secure energy future by expanding the reach and impact of the Laboratory’s research and innovation through philanthropy, partnerships, and strategic collaboration. Learn more at https://foundationnlr.org/

ON THE SCHEDULE THIS WEEK

Water Power Week to Highlight Key Hydro Role – This week, the National Hydropower Association holds its annual Water Power Week 26 in Washington, DC. Sen. Lisa Murkowski will headline the event. 

CERA Pre Brief Set – CERAWeek participants can hear a pre-conference briefing today (and on-line after) at 9:00 a.m. CERAWeek thought leaders, led by Daniel Yergin, will preview the conversations shaping this year’s program so participants gain timely context on the evolving geopolitical and energy landscape and approach the week with clarity and strategic perspective. Yergin  will be joined by Atul Arya, Carlos Pascual and Roger Diwan.

Forum Looks at Shipping Risks in Iran – The Washington Institute for Near East Policy holds a virtual forum today at 1:00 p.m. on energy and shipping risks in the Iran War. The event examines the Iran conflict's current and potential impacts on global commerce and energy.

State Dept Hosts Forum on Spain’s Critical Mineral Sector – The U.S. Department of State, in partnership with the U.S. Mission to Spain and the Spanish government, is hosting a webinar tomorrow at 11:00 a.m. to highlight significant investment and commercial opportunities in Spain’s critical minerals sector. U.S. Ambassador to Spain Benjamin Leon and Spain’s Director General for Energy Policy and Mining Manuel García Hernández will highlight the  commercially actionable opportunities in Spain’s critical minerals sector.

Energy Abundance Forums Set – The American Energy Abundance Alliance, a new initiative of BCSE, is holding the 2026 Energy Abundance Forum in Washington, DC on Wednesday and Thursday to address connect with fellow BCSE members and learn the latest updates on energy policy.

Brookings Looks at Housing, Climate Risk – On Wednesday March 18^th at 10:00 a.m., the Hamilton Project and Hutchins Center on Fiscal and Monetary Policy at Brookings will host an event on homeowners insurance and climate risk. The discussion will offer lessons and policy solutions for insurance and reinsurance in the era of climate change. The event will feature a fireside chat between Minnesota Commerce Commissioner Grace Arnold and Colorado Insurance Commissioner Michael Conway. It will also include two panel discussions.

EESI to Look at Affordability Programs – The Environmental and Energy Study Institute (EESI) holds a briefing on Thursday at 3:00 p.m. in 2168 Rayburn to look at readily-available solutions to help reduce energy costs for homes and small businesses. This briefing will convene experts from around the country with on-the-ground experience in bolstering energy efficiency and delivering savings to consumers. These panelists will explore the benefits of energy-saving solutions available to households and small businesses. They will also identify key federal programs that support these initiatives, such as the Low-Income Home Energy Assistance Program, ENERGY STAR and the Weatherization Assistance Program.

Burgum, Wright Headline Japan Energy Forum – The Indo-Pacific Energy Security Ministerial and Business Forum (IPEM) is being held on Friday and Saturday in Tokyo, Japan convening of Ministers, CEOs and senior leaders shaping the future of energy security in the Indo-Pacific. IPEM brings together government and industry to advance trusted partnerships, unlock investment and strengthen resilient, secure energy supply chains across the region.  US officials attending include Secretary Burgum, Secretary Wright, EPA’s Lee Zeldin, Ex-Im Bank President head John Jovanovic and many more.  Look for an energy deals on LNG to be featured here.

IN THE FUTURE

Hydropower Conference Set – CEATI holds it 16^th hydropower conference in San Diego, CA on March 17^th and 18^th. CEATI gathers utility leaders, experts and influencers at this prestigious event to share practical insights and breakthrough developments shaping the future of hydropower. The 2026 event will feature utility professionals from a variety of leadership roles, including Dam Safety Engineers, Hydro Plant Managers, Engineering Directors, Hydrologists, Water Resource Managers and Business Executives.

Forum Tackles Nuclear Questions – OurEnergyPolicy is hosting an upcoming luncheon on the technology, regulatory and financial status of advanced nuclear on Wednesday March 18^th at the National Press Club in Washington, D.C. The panel will feature Bradley Crowell from the Nuclear Regulatory Commission, Bill Jessup from Natura Resources, and Doug True from the Nuclear Energy Institute.

Heatmap Forum Looks at Clean Tech Comms Strategies – Heatmap Labs and FischTank PR hold another virtual installment of their Climate Communications Series on Thursday March 19^th at 1:00 p.m., focused on the state of climate investment in 2026. Leading investors will unpack where capital is actually going and what founders need to do to raise, communicate effectively, grow, and win in a disciplined but active market. The discussion ends with tactical advice and best practices on how comms leaders and their teams can begin to prepare for the year ahead.

Decarb Conference Set – The Climate Registry hosts the 2026 Climate Leadership Conference event: Carbon Disclosure and Decarbonization Forum in Pasadena, CA on March 19^th and 20^th. This year’s program features policymakers, sustainability experts, and university changemakers who are shaping the future of decarbonization. BCSE experts will be there.

Methane Forum Set CO School of Mines – The Payne Institute for Public Policy at the Colorado School of Mines is hosting its 4^th annual Accelerated Methane Reduction Symposium on Thursday March 19^th and Friday March 20^th.  This year’s theme is more energy for AI, domestic demand and LNG exports by investing in natural gas infrastructure.

USTDA, NEDC to Coordinate Forum – Mark your calendars of for a major LNG event in advance of CERA Week on Friday March 20^th.  the U.S. Trade and Development Agency, LNG Allies, and the U.S. Chamber of Commerce for the launch of a new initiative to advance American energy dominance by expanding U.S. exports across the global gas value chain. The event will feature expert panels and presentations highlighting emerging market opportunities and strategies to leverage U.S. government partnerships and resources. Invitees include U.S. business executives, senior U.S. government officials, representatives from Capitol Hill, and industry leaders from key emerging markets.

CERA Week Set – CERAWeek is on for March 22^nd to 26^th. The event is the most prominent energy Conference of the year and features three mutually reinforcing platforms: The Executive Conference, the Innovation Agora and Partner Programs. The industry's foremost thought leaders convene to cultivate relationships and exchange transformative ideas. The programs are designed to advance new ideas, insight and solutions to the biggest challenges facing the future of energy, the environment, and climate. I will again be very active in the Starbucks Hilton Bracewell office. Swing by and visit.  You never know what issues you will discuss or executive you can meet.

Boozman to headline Agri-Pulse Forum – Agri-Pulse is holding its Ag & Food Policy Summit on Monday March 23^rd in DC.  Sen. John Boozman, Chairman of the Senate Agriculture Committee, will be one of the keynote speakers, along with Rep. Shontel Brown, Senate Agriculture Committee Ranking Member Amy Klobuchar, House Agriculture Committee Chairman Glenn “GT” Thompson and Gevo’s Lindsay Fitzgerald among many more. This year's Summit theme is: “Profit, Policy, and .Possibility: Mapping the Future of Market Expansion for U.S. Agriculture.” Keynote speakers and panel discussions will cover everything from new value-added products, renewable fuels, the power of protein, trade, artificial intelligence.

National Agriculture Day – Tuesday March 24. National Ag Day is organized by the Agriculture Council of America (ACA). ACA is a nonprofit organization composed of leaders in the agricultural, food and fiber community, dedicating its efforts to increasing the public's awareness of agriculture's role in modern society. They are celebrated 250 years in 2026.

Axios Focused on AI, Power Markets – Axios hosts an AI+DC Takeover Week, a three-day event starting Monday March 23^rd and culminating in its AI+DC Summit on Wednesday March 25^th. You can request an invite HERE.  Speakers include Constellation CEO Joe Dominguez, Meta’s Dina Powell McCormick and Sen. Mark Warner.

SEJ Goes to Chicago – On April 15^th to 18^th, SEJ’s 35^th annual conference will be held at the University of Illinois Chicago (UIC), is a leading public research university and national authority in environmental health, sustainability, urban planning and climate science. SEJ2026 will bring together journalists, scientists, academics, students, policymakers and nonprofit leaders to explore urgent environmental, climate and health issues. Of course, on Thursday, Bracewell and the American Cleaning Institute will co-host our annual popular reception.

Columbia Global Energy Summit Looks at Geopolitics – On April 21^st in New York City, the annual Columbia Global Energy Summit, hosted by the Center on Global Energy Policy at Columbia University SIPA, will focus on energy, security and geopolitics in the New World Order. Over the course of the day, speakers will provide thought-provoking commentary and analysis on key issues, such as the collapse of the rules-based international order, the impact

of geopolitical shifts on the global economy, and how both of these dynamics shape the global energy industry. Program topics include demand flexibility and the rapid expansion of the AI industry, great power competition and the energy transition, increasing competition throughout critical mineral supply chains, energy affordability and permitting reform.

DC Climate Week Set – DC Climate Week is a community-organized week of events, exhibitions, tours, screenings, and gatherings across Washington, DC on April 21^st to 26^th. For the Second year, the event will explore the challenges of the climate crisis and discover the solutions that give us hope. Bracewell will host several events so stay tuned for details.