Energy Update: Week of March 23th

Friends,

What a great weekend of basketball and hockey, and it is still rolling today with the final Women’s games to determine the Sweet 16. Congrats to Wisconsin’s Women’s Ice Hockey team who outlasted Ohio State (again) 3-2 to win the NCAA Championship. This is the six straight meeting of the two powerhouse programs in the Championship with Wisconsin winning four (including the last two). And finally, some nicer weather…just in time to head to Houston, where I am sure it will be like a sweatbox just in time for the big event.

Yes, that is correct, it is CERA Week. I feel like I say this every year, but this may actually be one of the most consequential years for this energy confabs with the Iran conflict upending/roiling international and domestic energy markets. I am reporting to you this morning from Houston in the Bracewell office at Starbucks in the Hilton Lobby. Stop by for a visit. Light schedule this morning, but the craziness starts this afternoon.  Looking forward to Secretary Wright speaking to get the latest on Iran and markets. Also making stops upstairs with my friend CNBC’s Brian Sullivan and into media row with Bloomberg, Aaron Harbert, the Oil& Gas podcast guys at OGGI, as well as the new POLITICO CERA Week Hub!!! In fact, POLITICO’s team on the ground holds a forum at 1:00 p.m. today to kick things off.

As for the markets and Iran, we are tracking closely and are happy to find you experts or discuss. Here was my visit with Julie Mason last week to discuss the Iran, energy markets and gas prices on her Sirius XM POTUS 124 show.

And some early news, it looks the story from last week about TotalEnergies and Interior coming to an agreement on oil/gas/renewable energy is happening.  The CERA Week Announcement seems to be happening right now.  Details to come but if you need resources on this call me.  Here is a statement from Turn Forward’s Hillary Bright and we can find you experts that can discuss more of the details.

The central question Americans need to ask is whether we have enough raw power—and a sufficiently diverse range of resources—to supply our economy going forward. The conflict in Iran underlines the importance of having different energy options at your disposal when unexpected events occur. Offshore wind is showing its effectiveness in the U.S. every day and presents a near-term, cost-effective solution to help power the East coast. Eliminating options hurt our ability to fuel our economy long term.

Another big show this week is in the agriculture sector. Tomorrow is National Agriculture Day and Agri-Pulse is starting today with an Agriculture Policy Summit at the National Press Club. (By the Way, a last hurrah for our great friend and Agri-Pulse Editor Phil Brasher – the best Ag reporter in DC for years – who is retiring).  Great speakers include EPA’s Lee Zeldin (who comes to Houston later in the week), USTR’s Ag guru Julie Callahan and Senate/House Ag Committee leaders. Then Friday, the White House will hold a celebration of farmers on the South Lawn with all the fixins. 

Finally, Axios hosts an AI+DC Takeover Week, a three-day event starting today and culminating in its AI+DC Summit on Wednesday.  Speakers include Constellation CEO Joe Dominguez, Meta’s Dina Powell McCormick and Sen. Mark Warner.

Still not a slow week in Congress. Perhaps the Senate will come to an agreement to fund TSA, the Coast Guard and Homeland Security. On the hearing side, Senate Energy looks at the bulk power system on Wednesday while House Ways and Means starts building a year-end tax package with a member legislation mark up and House Resources addresses critical mineral supply chains.

Closing today with a tribute to Chuck Norris. He was tough as nails, but also kind with a gentle, softer personal side. As Peter LeFleur said on The Ocho: Thank YOU, Chuck Norris. 

See you around the Hilton…Call with questions.

Best,

Frank Maisano

(202) 828-5864

C. (202) 997-5932

FRANKLY SPOKEN

"The reverberations of this war will be felt for the next 5+ years, shifting the calculus of supply/demand, global sources of oil/gas supply, global transport routes and the definition of 'strategic.'"

Oil analyst Dan Pickering, in a detailed post getting into all of this

ON THE PODCAST

Holmstead Talks Climate Legal, Policy with Columbia Energy Podcast – In this week’s Columbia Energy Exchange podcast, my Bracewell colleague Jeff Holmstad, a former EPA Air Administrator, joined host Bill Loveless and Michael Gerrard to discuss climate change policy and litigation questions. ADD MORE FROM COLUMBIA NOTE

FUN OPINIONS

Segal: Energy Dominance has Transformed Lobbying Language – In an opinion in Bloomberg Government, my colleague Scott Segal writes that energy dominance is driving DC lobbying in a new direction.  For those working in those areas, the issues themselves haven’t disappeared, but the language has changed. You are no longer simply advocating for an industry. You are explaining how that industry contributes to energy security, technological leadership, and geopolitical resilience. That shift matters because federal policy priorities increasingly revolve around three interlocking goals—abundant domestic energy, the onshoring of strategic manufacturing, and the infrastructure needed to power the artificial intelligence economy.

US LNG is an Advantage – In an opinion in the Hill, Sam Raus writes in an unstable world, American gas is a strategic advantage. When geopolitical tensions flare, energy markets follow — and countries are reminded how vulnerable they remain to supply disruptions. The United States is in a position to change that dynamic through liquefied natural gas exports. Expanding America’s gas export capacity can meet the moment if lawmakers address critical bottlenecks in infrastructure and regulatory processes.

FROG BLOG

R Street: Gas Price, Middle East Woes – In the latest R Street Low-Energy Fridays blog, Philip Rossetti looks at how the conflict in the Middle East is affecting gas prices and markets can expect.  Rossetti adds (and he is note wrong) given the proliferation of uninformed takes, a more nuanced explanation of what to expect and what could change in the coming days and months is in order. The cost of oil itself is responsible for about 60% of the cost of gasoline. Oil prices were around $60/barrel in January; however, if prices surge to $120/barrel, then the cost of oil consumption increases. You can see the math. Just how seriously the volatility of oil markets impacts Americans is largely contingent upon two things: the tactical situation in Iran that determines the flow of oil through the Strait of Hormuz and how conducive the U.S. business environment is to increasing oil production to cover shortfalls.

(EDITOR’S NOTE: Of course if you are connecting with Bracewell, you are not getting “uninformed takes” between our client sources, great energy analyst friends and really smart third-party outside think-tank experts.)

FUN FACTS

Iran Conflict Inflation Hits: EIA says US oil  production will stay flat this year and rise slightly in 2027.

IN THE NEWS

New Farm, Transpo, Biz Coalition Letter Urges NY to Support RNG – With gas prices continuing to rise, a broad group of New York farmers, businesses and transportation leaders sent a letter urging Governor Hochul to support simple, affordable clean energy steps that can lower costs and cut emissions right away. They stress that this comes at a critical moment, as the state debates how to move forward with the CLCPA and the Governor considers practical pathways to meet climate goals, especially at a time of rapidly increasing gas and transportation costs. In the letter, they point to renewable natural gas (RNG) as a proven solution already working in hard to electrify sectors like heavy duty trucking. Other states, including California, have already adopted this common-sense approach, giving their fleets cleaner, lower cost fuel options. The group (including Cummins, New York Farm Bureau, New York State Association of Counties, Northeast Dairy Producers Association, Inc., OPAL Fuels, The Transport Project) recommends updating methane accounting, creating an RNG procurement standard, and offering grants for RNG trucks – these are steps that would help New York reduce emissions faster while protecting consumers and businesses from rising energy costs. Happy to Send if you want to see the letter. 

Admin Says No to Export Ban – During a meeting at API late last week, Trump administration officials told executives they are not considering an oil export ban to curb rising energy prices amid the Iran conflict to great relief. Officials instead discussed permitting reforms and other measures, signaling a focus on supply-side solutions as crude prices remain elevated. "The most important thing this industry or this administration can do is really focus on getting the strait open and I know that is their focus right now," said API President and CEO Mike Sommers.

Qatari Gas Field Loss Shows Importance, Value of US Nat Gas Industry – As Qatar's Ras Laffan LNG complex faces an outage that could last up to five years after an Iranian missile strike, US liquefied natural gas exporters are seeing increased interest from Asian and European buyers hunting for replacement supply. The attack disabled about 17% of Qatar's export capacity, or 14.1 million short tons per year, tightening global markets and pushing prices higher as importers compete for limited cargoes. Experts say prolonged disruption could worsen supply shortages, force demand cuts in price-sensitive economies and keep prices elevated for an extended period. It has also showed the global value of the US energy buildout of the natgas network domestically.

Gevo Provides NASCAR, INDY, F1 Racing Fuels – Gevo, a leader in next-generation renewable fuels, is delivering sustainable fuels to some of the fastest motorsports. Gevo recently reported approximately $5 million in revenue for the year ended December 31, 2025, from producing and selling its patented, proprietary specialty racing fuel blendstock, which meets the increasing demand for low-carbon advanced renewable fuels. As the 2026 racing season begins, global motorsports are continuing their rapid adoption of sustainable fuels. The 2026 season of Formula One launched with cars running on 100% advanced sustainable fuel, while MotoGP continues its transition toward 100% non-fossil fuel by 2027. IndyCar is also continuing its commitment to renewable fuels, and NASCAR recently announced the use of zero-carbon bioethanol as a blending component. The rapid adoption of sustainable fuels in motorsports reflects a broader shift across global fuel markets toward lower-carbon solutions that do not compromise performance. We believe the specialty fuel market could exceed several billion dollars per year, which includes naphtha blending, aviation, performance automotive, and marine fuels. Gevo’s racing fuel capabilities build on its proprietary renewable fuel technology, which converts renewable feedstocks into high-octane hydrocarbon blendstocks designed for demanding engine applications. Gevo develops drop-in fuel solutions that serve motorsports today while supporting broader markets such as sustainable aviation fuel, marine fuels, and low-carbon gasoline components.

IER Brief: Are Data Centers Impacting Power Costs? – A new issue brief from the Institute for Energy Research, our friend Tom Pyle and former DOE official Dan Simmons write the massive growth in AI-electricity demand at data centers has sparked growing concern about rising electricity demand and prices. Commentators increasingly argue that the rapid expansion of data-center infrastructure is pushing up electricity prices and imposing hidden costs on households. But, Pyle and Simmons say the latest data from the Energy Information Administration on electricity prices and sales contradict the narrative that data centers are driving up electricity prices. That may change in the future, but the most recent data shows that data centers are not responsible for higher electricity rates.  See the full details in the Brief.

ON THE SCHEDULE THIS WEEK

CERA Week Set – CERAWeek is on this week. The event is the most prominent energy Conference of the year and features three mutually reinforcing platforms: The Executive Conference, the Innovation Agora and Partner Programs. The industry's foremost thought leaders convene to cultivate relationships and exchange transformative ideas. The programs are designed to advance new ideas, insight and solutions to the biggest challenges facing the future of energy, the environment, and climate. I will again be very active in the Starbucks Hilton Bracewell office. Swing by and visit.  You never know what issues you will discuss or executive you can meet.

POLITICO Reporters Tee up CERA Week Issues From Houston – With CERAWeek getting underway in Houston, POLITICO’s Debra Kahn, Matt Daily, Kelsey Tamborrino and James Bikales kick events off with a virtual briefing on the storylines set to shape one of the most influential weeks in energy. The team will look at the biggest policy, politics and business questions hanging over the conference, from the Trump administration’s energy agenda and geopolitical pressure on oil markets to the growing role of AI and electricity demand.

Zeldin, Boozman to headline Agri-Pulse Forum – Agri-Pulse is holding its Ag & Food Policy Summit today in DC.  EPA Administrator Lee Zeldin will be lead speaker.  Other key speakers include Sen. John Boozman, Chairman of the Senate Agriculture Committee, Rep. Shontel Brown, Senate Agriculture Committee Ranking Member Amy Klobuchar, House Agriculture Committee Chairman Glenn “GT” Thompson and Gevo’s Lindsay Fitzgerald among many more. USTR’s Julie Callahan, the chief US agricultural negotiator also addresses the summit. This year's Summit theme is: “Profit, Policy, and .Possibility: Mapping the Future of Market Expansion for U.S. Agriculture.” Keynote speakers and panel discussions will cover everything from new value-added products, renewable fuels, the power of protein, trade, artificial intelligence.

National Agriculture Day – Tomorrow is National Ag Day, organized by the Agriculture Council of America (ACA). ACA is a nonprofit organization composed of leaders in the agricultural, food and fiber community, dedicating its efforts to increasing the public's awareness of agriculture's role in modern society. They are celebrated 250 years in 2026.

Szabo Headlines Air, Waste Management Forum – The Air and Waste Management Association is holding a conference on data center insights and innovation tomorrow to Thursday in Virginia’s Dulles Technology Corridor. The event focuses on addressing environmental and public health impacts of data centers, while improving sustainability and energy efficiency. EPA’s Assistant Administrator for the Office of Air and Radiation Aaron Szabo is the keynote.

Axios Focused on AI, Power Markets – Axios hosts an AI+DC Takeover Week, a three-day event starting today and culminating in its AI+DC Summit on Wednesday.  Speakers include Constellation CEO Joe Dominguez, Meta’s Dina Powell McCormick and Sen. Mark Warner.

PunchBowl Hosts Grid Forum – PunchBowl News holds a discussion on Wednesday starting at 8:30 a.m. on the news of the day and electric grid reliability.

Senate Energy Looks at Bulk Power System – The Senate Energy and Natural Resources Committee holds a hearing on Wednesday looking at the state of the bulk power system.

House Resources Panel Tackles Critical Minerals Policy – The House Natural Resources Oversight and Investigations Subcommittee holds a hearing on Wednesday at 10:15 a.m. focused on unleashing America's mineral potential by addressing the critical mineral commodity supply chain.

House Ways/Means Looks at Tax Provisions – The House Ways & Means Committee will hold a hearing on Wednesday to markup member tax provisions for a year-end tax legislation.  The move will likely have some implication on energy issues. Our Bracewell tax team can help on background. 

Forum Looks at Conflicts – The Center for the National Interest holds a special online panel discussion on Wednesday at 1:00 p.m. focused on the Russia-Ukraine and U.S.-Israel-Iran conflicts. The event raises many questions about the ongoing Russia-Ukraine and U.S.-Israel-Iran wars, the connections between these two conflicts, and their implications for a potential war in the Indo-Pacific that many fear.

Forum Looks at Nature, American 250 – The R Street Institute holds a virtual discussion on Wednesday at 3:00 p.m., on nature and the American story at 250.

Forum Looks at Syria Energy Issues – The Atlantic Council's Middle East Programs and Global Energy Center hosting the US-Syria Energy Symposium on Thursday at 10:00 a.m. Yousef Qiblawy, CEO of the Syrian Petroleum Company, delivers keynote remarks. The program also features insightful panel discussion with industry and policy leaders examining the current state of Syria's oil and gas industry, the regulatory and structural reforms underway to attract responsible investment, opportunities for US companies, the challenges faced when seeking to engage in Syria's emerging market and how Syria's energy development contributes to the region's long-term stability, integration and economic revitalization.

PunchBowl Holds Ag Forum – Punchbowl News will host a summit on Thursday at 1:00 p.m. focused on agricultural resilience and American farmers. The event will bring together stakeholders to explore the complexity of the American agriculture system and how farmers play a massive role in the food supply chain. Rep. Nikki Budzinski leads the speaker group.

Forum Looks at Domestic Solar Manufacturing – The Conservative Energy Network hold a webinar on Thursday at 2:00 p.m. on domestic solar manufacturing.   This webinar will explore how building and scaling solar manufacturing in the United States strengthens American jobs, enhances supply chain resilience, reduces dependence on geopolitical competitors, and reinforces long-term energy security. SAFE’s Danielle Russo and SEIA’s Jade Jones will speak. 

McCarthy Headlines Climate Event – On Thursday at 2:30 p.m., the Atlantic Council’s Climate Resilience Center and Europe Center will host a fireside chat between the European Commission’s Teresa Ribera and former US EPA administrator Gina McCarthy on the current state of international climate cooperation. They will also consider the economic advantages of the clean energy transition for citizens and the opportunities for collaboration between cities and local governments.

White House Celebration of Farmers, Agriculture – To celebrate National Agriculture Week, the White House will host a celebration on the South Lawn for Farmers and members of the ag community.

ELI Hosts Policy Forum – On Friday starting at 10:30 a.m., the Environmental Law Institute holds its 2026 Environmental Law and Policy Annual Review Conference. The event will include discussions on topics including indoor air quality, western water governance, cooperative federalism and state administrative law.

IN THE FUTURE

Valero Open Set – The 2026 Valero Texas Open will take place April 2^nd to 5^th at TPC San Antonio’s Oaks Course. The event serves as the final PGA Tour event before The Masters and has donated millions to charities over the years.

RFF Holds Climate Forum – Resources for the Future (RFF) holds an RFF Webinar on Tuesday April 7^th looking at the global energy outlook for 2026 and whether the world has lost the 1.5°C goal.  The event coincides with the release of the 2026 Global Energy Outlook—RFF’s annual report that synthesizes global energy market projections and analyses from leading energy organizations and corporations. During the webinar, RFF researchers will discuss key findings on a variety of topics, including how the world veered off track from achieving international climate goals, rapidly rising global electricity demand, the uncertain global outlook for coal, evolving projections for transportation fuels, and more. The webinar will also feature an in-depth panel discussion that will dive deeper into the topics explored in the report, along with the energy impacts of developments in Venezuela and the Middle East. Panelists will also discuss the outlook for future international climate negotiations, domestic industrial strategy, and more.

Daines, Total Energies CEO to Headline Semafor World Economy Forum – Semafor holds its annual World Economy Forum on April 13^th to 17^th. Across the week, our editorial tracks will explore global finance, geopolitical unpredictability, healthcare, and the rapid changes AI is generating. The session I’m most excited about, however, is Powering the Future — where I’ll be sitting down with some of the leaders shaping the next era of energy. Speakers include TotalEnergies CEO Patrick Pouyanné, Sen. Steve Daines, Baker Hughes CEO Lorenzo Simonelli and GE Vernova CEO Scott Strazik, among others.

SEJ Goes to Chicago – On April 15^th to 18^th, SEJ’s 35^th annual conference will be held at the University of Illinois Chicago (UIC), is a leading public research university and national authority in environmental health, sustainability, urban planning and climate science. SEJ2026 will bring together journalists, scientists, academics, students, policymakers and nonprofit leaders to explore urgent environmental, climate and health issues. Of course, on Thursday, Bracewell and the American Cleaning Institute will co-host our annual popular reception.

Columbia Global Energy Summit Looks at Geopolitics – On April 21^st in New York City, the annual Columbia Global Energy Summit, hosted by the Center on Global Energy Policy at Columbia University SIPA, will focus on energy, security and geopolitics in the New World Order. Over the course of the day, speakers will provide thought-provoking commentary and analysis on key issues, such as the collapse of the rules-based international order, the impact of geopolitical shifts on the global economy, and how both of these dynamics shape the global energy industry. Program topics include demand flexibility and the rapid expansion of the AI industry, great power competition and the energy transition, increasing competition throughout critical mineral supply chains, energy affordability and permitting reform.

DC Climate Week Set – DC Climate Week is a community-organized week of events, exhibitions, tours, screenings, and gatherings across Washington, DC on April 21^st to 26^th. For the Second year, the event will explore the challenges of the climate crisis and discover the solutions that give us hope. Bracewell will host several events so stay tuned for details.

Forum Looks at Climate Data – The Environmental and Energy Study Institute (EESI) and Climate Central hold a briefing on Thursday April 23 at 4:00 p.m. in 2168 Rayburn to discuss a key underpinning of the U.S. economy: publicly-available weather and climate data. In this new information environment, universities, nonprofits, and national associations are stepping up to fill the gaps in maintaining weather and climate data left by the federal government. Panelists will share where to look for these datasets and explore how these organizations are maintaining public access to critical information without the resources afforded by the federal government. They will also describe the implications of these changes for end users, from individuals using weather apps to multinational corporations making significant business decisions.

Energy Forum Set for San Antonio – The 13^th Energy Thought Summit (ETS)will be held in San Antonio, TX on April 27^th to 30^th. The event will reflect on the industry's past achievements, while discussing the limitless opportunities that lie ahead. Immerse yourself in the collective wisdom of industry pioneers, thought leaders, and visionaries, inspiring us all to push the boundaries of what is possible when it comes to shaping our new energy future.

SAFE Summit to Tackle Critical Mineral, Energy Security Challenges – SAFE Summit 2026 is set for April 27^th and 28^th at the Walter E. Washington Convention Center – 3rd Floor Ballroom in DC.  The event will convene innovators and leaders at a premier conference event for high-stakes and high-impact conversations shaping the nation’s energy, transportation, and minerals future. Session topics focus on AI, batteries, mineral security policies, transmission, energy, Detroit’s China EV problem and More. Spotlighting SAFE’s The Pillars of Power: A Strategy for Energy Security and Industrial Resiliency, the Summit will focus on rebuilding America’s industrial base, securing critical supply chains, and embracing energy abundance.

Chamber Holds Energy Summit – On May 1^st, the U.S. Chamber of Commerce and RealClearEnergy hosts its   2026 Energy Future Forum. Affordability has become the watchword of the year, driving conversations across AI aspirations, reshoring efforts, mineral mining and refining, LNG exports, and more. Join leaders from industry, policy, and technology for a full day of discussions on how cost pressures are shaping the future of energy and innovation. Featured speakers include Energy Secretary Wright, Southern CEO Chris Womack, EQT CEO Toby Rice, FERC Commissioner David Rosner and Siemens Energy President Matt Neal.

USEA Holds Energy Forum – On May 5^th, the US Energy Association will convene the US Energy Policy Forum in Washington, DC, to shift the national dialogue from high-level discussion to "Prioritizing Action." This landmark event will gather a select group of visionaries and decision-makers to bridge the gap between policy and practice, defining the next era of our energy landscape.

CCS Forum Set For DC – The Global CCS Institute holds its 2026 Americas Forum on Carbon Capture and Storage on Tuesday May 12^th in Washington, D.C. hosted at the Embassy of Australia. The Forum program will feature keynote remarks, experts panels, and in-depth discussions on policy, technology, investment, and project developments. The event will also discuss Carbon Removal by Howard J. Herzog (MIT) and Professor Niall Mac Dowell (Imperial College London), both of whom will be speaking at the Forum