Energy Update: Week of June 23rd

Friends,

We start today with two pieces of weekend news:

1. After saying he would make a decision on Iran in two weeks, President Trump launched “Operation Midnight Hammer” where a team of B-2 bombers dropped more than a dozen 30,000-pound bunker-busting bombs on two nuclear facilities. A third site was targeted with Tomahawk missiles fired from American submarines hundreds of miles away. The Iranian Parliament responded by voting in support of closing the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world's most critical oil transit chokepoints, but it is unclear if that will occur. API spokesperson Bethany Williams said they are closely monitoring energy markets and the developing conflict in the Middle East, including shipping pathways that are critical for global oil supply.
   • “These volatile times underscore the strategic importance of American energy leadership as a stabilizing force here at home and around the world.”
2. Fred Smith, the founder of FedEx who helped create the overnight delivery industry passed away Saturday night at 80. Of course, Smith was a significant player in the Washington DC energy policy space, including being one of the original founders of the energy security policy organization, SAFE. SAFE’s Robbie Diamond said Smith was instrumental in the launch of SAFE 20 years ago.
   • “His participation was a driving factor that put our organization on the map and dramatically improved the energy security of the country. In the pantheon of American industrial legends, he was a titan who connected the world through the FedEx Corporation. Smith brought a unique and powerful perspective and gravitas - as both a CEO and a Marine - to the conversation on fuel economy standards, electrification, and domestic production, and subsequently was behind many of the most consequential energy and transportation legislation in the time we worked together.”

The President heads to the NATO Summit in the Hague midweek, which will leave the Iran issue on the front burner. Moving back to DC, it is crunch time in the Senate Budget reconciliation. We expect to see another round of Senate Finance text today, hoping for a number of changes including on hydrogen. There are rumors that the Senate may file for cloture on the Senate’s version of OBBB as soon as today as it finishes its Byrd Bath process (which has already chopped out a bunch of stuff). That cloture move could start the “vote-a-rama” as soon as Thursday. There are also a number of discussions about a revised Manager’s amendment which would be targeted toward conferencing the differences. If you think this sounds optimist, it does. But there are a lot of people who have lost betting against President Trump, Speaker Johnson and the policy timelines. This is very fluid and we are monitoring all of it very closely. 

House Energy holds a hearing on coal ash on Thursday with co-op, a state regulator and Coal Ash Assn head Tom Adams as witnesses. Meanwhile, the American Cement Association says in a letter their members encourage bipartisan collaboration on the issue “to tackle the complexities of coal ash storage and use and find solutions that balance the need to reduce air emissions, foster economic growth, and protect human health.”

As for events, CSIS hosts IEA head Fatih Birol, who seems to be in “keep the US in the fold” mode as he visits Washington.  After taking somewhat more aggressive clean energy stances during the previous Administration, Birol is now focusing more on energy and AI, trade and geopolitics, critical minerals and energy security. Other events include a US Energy Assn forum on CCUS pathways and NERO holds its 50^th Anniversary dinner that features Sen. Shelly Moore Capito.

Speaking of Capito, the Business Council for Sustainable Energy continues its state clean energy outreach with local experts tomorrow in West Virginia (11am) and Kansas (2:30pm). Last week, BCSE held successful events in North Carolina, Pennsylvania and South Carolina  

Florida won the Stanley Cup for the second straight year over Edmonton and the Oklahoma City Thunder held off Indiana in Game 7 for the NBA Championship last night.  Finally, LSU finished a two-game sweep of Coastal Carolina in the NCAA College World Series in Omaha.  

Finally, I am just over a month out from my Pelotonia Cancer Charity ride in Columbus. Of course, I am riding again this year for my younger brother Art who was diagnosed with brain cancer in December 2023. He is 18 months into his fight and he is pushing back hard, even walking now.  I hope you will support my brother’s fight by donating. Any amount matters, so please head to this Pelotonia link and help.

Summer launched Saturday with the longest day of the year and the summer heat is hitting the eastern half of the country hard. AHRI will have some summer heatwave Air Conditioning tips for consumers to make sure the AC is operating efficiently. Stay safe out there. Call with questions.

Best,

Frank Maisano

(202) 828-5864

C. (202) 997-5932                                                                                                   

FRANKLY SPOKEN

"We've got a significantly better outcome here already than in the House-passed bill, but we are hoping for some further improvements to the phase-down schedule and some really, frankly, technical fixes to FEOC."

Clean Energy Buyers Association CEO Rich Powell to POLITICO.

“I HATE “GREEN TAX CREDITS” IN THE GREAT, BIG, BEAUTIFUL BILL.”

                President Trump in a weekend Truth Social post

ON THE PODCAST

Clean Energy Status Update on Julie Mason Show – Last week, I jumped on SIRIUS XM P.O.T.U.S.’s Julie Mason Show to discuss  the future of the Inflation Reduction Act, the current tax provisions, nuclear power and gas price issues and the EPA’s Energy Star Program. 

FUN OPINIONS

Ballard CEO: Hydrogen, Fuel Cell Industry is Like Playoff Hockey – In a LinkedIn Post announcing his retirement, Ballard CEO Randy MacEwen writes working for a company like Ballard (one that is trying to scale something as tough and transformative as hydrogen-fueled PEM fuel cells) is not for the faint of heart. It’s difficult. It’s not regular-season hockey; it’s playoff hockey.

“The pace of play is faster, the hits are harder, space is limited, time is compressed, and the margin for errors is razor-thin. It’s super intense, high-stakes, and gritty. You start the game full of energy, with a playbook, and probably too much tape on your stick. But soon enough, you realize nothing goes according to plan. The ice gets chippy. Some bounces are unpredictable. You spend a surprising amount of time killing off penalties for things you’re not entirely sure you did. It’s exhilarating, brutal, beautiful, and unforgettable.”

FROG BLOG

CRES Tax Credit Blog Series: 45Y and 48E Technology-Neutral Credits – In a blog post with Invenergy, Citizens for Responsible Energy Solutions (CRES) looked at the 45Y and 48E technology-neutral tax credits with Kelly Speakes-Backman serves as Invenergy’s Executive Vice President for Public Affairs. Speakes-Bachman says the economic benefits are significant: if kept intact, the energy tax credits would deliver a 4X return on investment, support 13.7 million jobs, and grow the U.S. economy by $1.9 trillion over 10 years. Eliminating the credits would add an estimated $83 per month to household electricity bills – that's nearly $1,000 annually. On jobs, Invenergy has created thousands of jobs across America and we’re training the next generation of the clean energy workforce through our Center of Excellence, Invenergy’s state-of-the-art training facility that’s unlocking career advancement opportunities for Invenergy employees across America.

FUN FACTS

Oil Risk with Iran-Israel:  Global energy markets are stabilizing even as Israel and Iran continue to trade attacks. The price of Brent crude, the global benchmark, is hovering at around $76 per barrel, and analysts believe that unless Iran takes the extreme — and highly unlikely — step of closing the Strait of Hormuz, a significant further increase is unlikely.

We Could Lead on Hydrogen over China:  According to a study published last year by consulting firm group McKinsey & Co., North America is set to produce 52% of the world’s clean hydrogen by 2030, while China is on course for 30%. When it comes to carbon capture and storage technology, nearly half of all projects are set to be based in North America by 2030, according to the International Energy Agency, with Europe next highest with 31% of projects. Most of the North American projects are in the U.S., largely in Republican States and counties. If we undercut the IRA’s Hydrogen (45V) tax credit, we lose all of this advantage.

IN THE NEWS

$1.4 billion in Clean Energy Projects, Factories Cancelled in May – As the U.S. Senate prepares to vote on massive tax and spending bill that would increase taxes on clean energy factories and projects, businesses canceled another $1.4 billion in new factories and clean energy projects in May, according to E2’s latest monthly analysis of clean energy projects tracked by E2 and Clean Economy Tracker. The latest cancellations – including battery, electric vehicle and solar panel factories in West Virginia, New York, Alabama, Arizona and Washington – mean $15.5 billion in new factories and electricity projects have been cancelled since January 1. The cancelled projects were expected to create nearly 12,000 new jobs. Republican congressional districts are losing the most. More than $9 billion in investments and almost10,000 jobs have been cancelled, delayed or closed in Republican districts so far in 2025.

G7 Critical Minerals Plan Released – The G7 nations have advanced a new Critical Minerals Action Plan that includes numerous topline recommendations from SAFE’s Center for Critical Minerals Strategy’s research and strategic dialogues, including the MINVEST partnership with the U.S. Department of State. Abigail Hunter, Executive Director of the SAFE Center for Critical Minerals Strategy:

“Critical mineral security has never been higher in the public consciousness. The G7 statement reflects how advanced democracies are sprinting to secure high standard mineral supplies for their defense and advanced technology sectors. While the Minerals Center has not been alone in supporting these recommendations, we have been early, clear, and consistent in calls for the United States and our allies to confront the unlevel playing field that has harmed responsible mineral producers—requiring minimum standards and intentional investments from development finance and export credit agencies to loosen China’s grip in mineral producing countries.”

SAFE recommendations reflected in the action plan include:

• Efforts to ensure minerals markets “reflect the real costs of responsible extraction, processing, and trade of critical minerals, while ensuring labor standards, local consultation, anti-bribery and corruption measures and addressing negative externalities, including pollution and land degradation.”
• Developing a “roadmap [that] will establish a set of criteria that constitute a minimum threshold for standards-based markets, strengthening traceability as a necessary measure.”
• Collaboration to “increase investment in responsible critical minerals projects within the G7 and around the world.”
• Encouraging “export credit agencies and development finance institutions (DFIs) to identify more opportunities for collaboration.”
• For interested G7 members to “also support initiatives such as the Minerals Security Partnership and its MSP Forum, and the Intergovernmental Forum on Mining, Minerals, Metals and Sustainable Development.”
• “Fill targeted innovation gaps in critical minerals research and development, with a focus on processing, licensing, recycling, substitution and redesign, and circular economy.”

Idaho Lab to Collaborate on Minerals – The Idaho National Laboratory will collaborate with US Critical Materials Corp. to process high-grade critical mineral ore deposits in a Montana mine, including: neodymium, praseodymium, niobium, strontium, samarium, scandium, and heavy rare earths, such as gadolinium, terbium, dysprosium, and yttrium. Samples taken 125 feet underground exceed the grades of any other domestic rare earth resource.

ON THE SCHEDULE THIS WEEK

Forum to Looks at AI Impacts – The Newsweek AI Impact Summit takes place today to Wednesday in Sonoma, California. The Summit features — from tech innovators to C-suite executives, policymakers to ethicists — to share insights on how organizations can most effectively harness the power of AI to achieve their goals. Through curated panel discussions, we explore best practices in AI implementation, addressing challenges like ethical deployment, workforce adaptation, and regulatory compliance.

Daily Caller Holds Energy Forum – Daily Caller Live holds a forum tomorrow at 8:30 a.m. on the future of American energy on the Riggs Rooftop.  The event will feature bold ideas and fresh perspectives from a range of speakers, featuring voices from across the spectrum.  The event will also be streamed live for a national audience. ClearPath’s Jeremy Harrell is among the speakers.

IEA Head Talks Critical Minerals, Energy – The CSIS Energy Security and Climate Change Program holds a conversation tomorrow at 9:30 a.m. with Dr. Fatih Birol, Executive Director of the International Energy Agency (IEA). Birol will address the IEA’s recent work on energy and AI, trade and geopolitics, critical minerals, and energy security. Following the Birol conversation, Leslie Abrahams, Deputy Director and Senior Fellow with the CSIS Energy Security and Climate Change Program, and Meredith Schwartz, Research Associate in the CSIS Critical Minerals Security Program, will moderate a panel discussion.

House Small Biz Looks at Critical Minerals – The House Small Business Committee holds a hearing tomorrow at 10:00 a.m. on securing America's critical mineral future.

USEA Focused on CCS Pathways – The US Energy Assn holds a forum at SIEW Connect tomorrow at 11:00 a.m. to examine how emerging technologies can strengthen and transform our energy systems while ensuring reliability and resilience in tomorrow's integrated energy landscape. This panel brings together industry and technology pioneers to explore the latest developments in artificial intelligence, natural gas optimization and hydrogen technologies. Our speakers will share insights on scaling these technologies, overcoming deployment challenges in hydrogen infrastructure and fostering international collaboration to accelerate adoption.

BCSE State Clean Energy Forums Continue – Tomorrow, BCSE is hosting two more state clean energy briefings - one focused on West Virginia at 11:00 a.m. and one focused on Kansas at 2:30 p.m. These virtual briefings - each one hour in length - will provide a great opportunity to learn about specific impacts of changes to the tax code from state and national leaders with a stake in the outcome. Speakers include FCHEA head Frank Wolak, as well as BCSE’s Lisa Jacobson and local clean energy leaders.

RFF Looks at 2025 Policy Progress – Following the launch in April of If/Then, a new endeavor by Resources for the Future (RFF) to analyze emerging Trump administration, congressional, and major state policy actions, the nonpartisan group is hosting a webinar tomorrow at 2:00 p.m. During this webinar, Anna Kramer, NOTUS Energy and Environmental Policy reporter, will moderate a roundtable discussion between RFF scholars Kevin Rennert, Alan Krupnick, and Carlos Martín covering the analysis published to date and forecast upcoming issues related to emissions, natural disasters, markets, and more.

Hydrogen Technology Expo Set for Houston – The Hydrogen Technology Expo North America is set for the NRG Center in Houston, Texas on Wednesday and Thursday. The event focuses on hydrogen and fuel cell technologies and brings together the entire hydrogen value chain to discuss advancements in production, storage and distribution.  FCHEA’s Frank Wolak will speak on a panel.

Forum Looks at NATO, EU Issues – POLITICO’s top U.S. and European defense reporters on Wednesday at 10:00 a.m. for a live, on-the-ground debrief breaking down what really happened — and what it means for the future of the alliance. The event will look into the key outcomes from the summit, including rising tensions over burden-sharing, the push to increase defense spending across member states, new commitments on Ukraine and the alliance’s eastern front, and the evolving strategy on deterrence and defense in the face of Russian aggression. Our reporters will also explore behind-the-scenes dynamics among leaders, debates over NATO expansion, and the alliance’s role in addressing emerging threats.

Senate Environment Hosts NRC, EPA Nominees – The Senate Environment Committee holds a hearing on Wednesday at 10:00 a.m. on the nominations of Usha-Maria Turner to be assistant EPA administrator for the Office of International and Tribal Affairs; and David Wright to be a member of the NRC.

NERO Hosts 50^th Anniversary Dinner, Honors Capito – NERO hosts Its annual dinner and 50^th Anniversary Celebration on Wednesday starting at 5:30 p.m. at the National Building Museum for our Annual Dinner. WV Sen. Shelley Moore Capito will receive NERO’s Distinguished Service Award.

House Science Looks at Environmental Justice – The House Science Committee’s Investigations and Oversight panel holds a hearing on Thursday at 9:30 a.m., examining the Justice40 Initiative's oversight and implementation.

House Energy Subpanel Looks at Coal Ash – The House Energy Committee’s Subcommittee on Environment holds a hearing on Thursday at 10:15 a.m. to discuss how coal ash can be used safely and effectively in construction as well for the remining of critical materials.

IN THE FUTURE

July 4^th HOLIDAY – District Work Period July 2 - July 10

Book Forum TALKS Energy Insecurity – The Columbia Center for Global Energy Policy and Resources for the Future (RFF) hold a forum in Washington on Monday July 7^th at 6:00 p.m. for a conversation with Powerless author and Co-Director of the CGEP Energy Opportunity Lab Diana Hernández and Founding Director Jason Bordoff on the hidden crisis of energy insecurity in America. The event will explore the book's key findings and bold policy solutions to ensure affordable, safe energy for all. Opening remarks by RFF's Carlos Martín.

RNG, SAF Summit Set for Houston – Infocast’s RNG and SAF Capital Markets Summit will be held on July 16^th and 17^th in Houston.  The event will feature equity investors, debt providers, developers, and key market players across RNG and sustainable aviation fuel (SAF). These industry leaders will provide strategies to successfully navigate the challenges facing these projects, and fund industry growth.

USEA Hosts Advanced Technology Showcase – The US Energy Assn holds its Advanced Energy Technology Showcase and Policy Forum on July 17^th at the Ronald Reagan Trade Center. The event will explore the exciting evolution of cutting-edge energy technologies. This engaging event will illuminate their journey from discovery to deployment, showcasing how smart public and private investments are accelerating innovation.