Energy Update: Week of July 14th

Friends,

After a quick stop in Oregon to see Cannon Beach/Astoria (for you Goonies Fans – See Below), Track Town, USA, Silver Lake Waterfalls and Portland, we are launching to Anchorage today for our trip.  So, no update next Monday except for maybe some Alaska Pictures. 

The week starts with a bang in Western PA tomorrow when President Trump travels to Carnegie Mellon in Pittsburgh to attend the Energy, Innovation, and AI Conference hosted by Sen. Dave McCormick. Secretaries Wright, Burgum and Administrator Zeldin will also attend.  There will also be a bunch of energy execs attending including CEOs from API, Cameco, Brookfield Renewables, a bunch of tech companies and some utilities. If you need to discuss or are Looking for sources, let me know here or reach out to Molly (molly.morrissey@bracewell.com).

On the Hill, it is Approps time now the Budget battle is in the books. The Senate is moving on recissions package this week (it has to be completed by Friday), while House appropriators start working on funding for next year EPA/Interior mark up tomorrow). There are a bunch of hearings, but one to watch, given the tragic July flooding in Texas, will be House Science’s Environment subpanel hearing on harnessing innovative technologies to enhance weather forecasting. John Nielsen-Gammon, Texas state climatologist and director of the Southern Regional Climate Center, will be among the witnesses.  There is also a great House Foreign Affairs hearing on critical minerals tomorrow featuring former Sen. Energy Chair Joe Manchin, as well as former undersecretaries of State Jose Fernandez and Frank Fannon.

A lot of events this week with CSIS’s Clean Energy Strategies Conference on Wednesday USEA’s  Advanced Energy Technology Showcase and Policy Forum on Thursday at the top of the list.

It was a great Wimbledon, minus the 6-0, 6-0 waxing Iga Swiatek gave American Amanda Anisimova in the women’s final.  Yesterday, Jannik Skinner and Carlos Alcarez provided another chapter in the new tennis legends’ book, with Skinner denying Alcarez a 3^rd straight Wimbledon title – even after dropping the first set. The 153^rd British Open starts Thursday in Royal Portrush in Northern Ireland.

Call with questions or connect with my colleague Molly Morrissey if you need anything.

Best,

Frank Maisano

(202) 828-5864

C. (202) 997-5932                                                                                                                   

FRANKLY SPOKEN

“They're putting their barrels where their forecast is. They see a higher demand for their oil, and so far they've been right. The oil market is tight ”

Rapidan’s Bob McNally on OPEC+ accelerating the unwinding of production cuts in an Interview with Bloomberg.

ON THE PODCAST

Wolak Highlights Hydrogen Successes – In today’s episode of the USEA Power Sector Podcast series on groups leading the emergence of 21st century power, Frank Wolak, President and CEO of the Fuel Cell and Hydrogen Energy Association highlights FCHEA’s history and mission, how hydrogen fits in today’s energy economy, and what FCHEA is working toward in this highly dynamic political moment.

Energy Perspectives Looks at Ag, Energy Emissions Data – In the latest episode of the Energy Perspectives Podcast, (recorded during 2024 Permian Energy Dialogues in Santa Fe, New Mexico), Chris Johnson (Agrellus), Andrew Walsh (Qube Technologies), and Tillery Sims (Sandhills Area Research Association) dive into how emissions data, methane tracking, and voluntary carbon markets are reshaping value creation across agriculture and energy.

FUN OPINIONS

McCormick: Creating New Leadership for Manufacturing – In an opinion piece for the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette, Sen. Dave McCormick outlined his belief that the U.S. Steel-Nippon partnership will lead to success for Pennsylvania and America. He argues that this moment presents an opportunity to seize greatness and that he will work with anyone who is committed to such a renaissance for Pennsylvania.  

Hydrogen Success Is Essential to Creating Market– In an op-ed in the Houston Business Journal, Air Liquide CEO Adam Peters and FCHEA head Frank Wolak write if the U.S. fails to match our competitors this level of investment and commitment on clean energy, we risk being outpaced by our international peers. From a national security perspective, a strong hydrogen sector enables the U.S. to maintain greater control over our energy future. A network of hydrogen production, storage, and distribution sites across the country – such as the Hydrogen Hubs – can support our military and defense operations and continue to decrease our reliance on energy and materials imports. The potential for hydrogen exports also represents an investment in our future energy security, and that of regional security across the globe.

FROG BLOG

Former EIA Head: We Need Good Energy Stats – In an opinion blog post on The National Interest, former EIA head Adam Sieminski writes the death of energy statistics we can trust in the name of cost-cutting affects not just governmental policy but our daily lives as well. The trust that Americans have placed in the unbiased nature of government statistics is being tarnished. The EIA has often been called the “gold standard” for energy statistics. Congress and the administration should be taking steps to remedy the damage already done, first by stopping the further erosion of the EIA’s resources and credibility, and then by restoring the ability of the EIA to perform its duties.

FUN FACTS

West Refineries Present Price Increase Risk:  California is set to lose 17% of its oil refinery capacity over the next 12 months because of two planned refinery closures. If realized, the closure of the facilities is likely to contribute to increases in fuel price volatility on the West Coast. California usually has higher retail gasoline prices compared with the national average. The supply shortfall left by their exit is therefore likely to have an outsized impact on the region because it cannot be easily filled by other refineries elsewhere in the country.

IN THE NEWS

MP Deal Sets Standard for Critical Minerals Battle with China – Last week’s groundbreaking deal between the Defense Department and MP Materials could be a blueprint for how the government might support other critical minerals companies to cut into China’s lead. The deal is a combination of government equity and debt financing, a price floor and long-term offtake agreements. As part of the deal, DOD is taking an equity stake in MP, paying $400 million to become its largest shareholder with a 15% stake. It also set a price floor for certain MP products, agreeing to pay the difference if China drives down market prices below that threshold. MP agreed to build a new U.S. magnet production facility on an accelerated timeline, which could vastly increase domestic production of magnets that are critical to defense, automotive and energy industries. In addition, JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs are providing a $1 billion construction loan for the new magnet facility. Abigail Hunter, Executive Director, SAFE Center for Critical Minerals Strategy said:

“This is a unique and comprehensive agreement that makes DOD the largest shareholder in MP, providing strategic certainty and real upside with the U.S. government having skin in the game, sharing both risks and opportunities with the private sector. It’s a long-term strategy for success by providing a glide path for a startup competing against state-owned monopolies. The timing couldn’t be more urgent: Whoever controls permanent magnet supply chains will decide the future of defense, robotics, and energy—and this agreement signals that the United States intends to lead.”

New Study: RNG is Cost-Effective, Scalable Tool for Energy Security, Decarb – The American Gas Foundation released a comprehensive new report detailing the availability, cost and emissions reduction potential of U.S. renewable natural gas (RNG) resources on Thursday. The analysis, developed in partnership with ICF, provides national and state-by-state results, demonstrating an abundant and scalable fuel source that can provide consumers with more cost-effective solutions to lowering emissions. The use of RNG supports American economic and energy security goals while delivering reliable, affordable, safe and more efficient clean energy directly to consumers. The 2025 Renewable Natural Gas Supply Assessment found the biomass supply available to produce RNG has increased 17% since the original 2019 assessment, providing a significant resource potential for RNG production now and potentially increasing into 2050 across the United States. This resource potential is enough to meet the energy needs of all U.S. residential households currently using natural gas for end use, with the potential to cut greenhouse gas emissions by more than 300 million metric tons every year. These statistics underscore the significant role RNG can play as a storable, dispatchable renewable energy resource. 

STEO Projects on Energy Demand, Oil/Gas – The Energy Information Administration released its short-term energy outlook today, projecting that domestic power demand will jump to 4,189 billion kilowatt hours this year, up from 4,097 billion kilowatt hours in 2024. That trend is expected to continue into 2026, with demand reaching another projected record of 4,278 billion kilowatt hours.  The demand growth is in a large part expected to come from artificial intelligence advancements seen through the construction of large-load data centers as well as the continued electrification of homes and businesses. As energy demand grows, the EIA estimated that dropping oil prices will continue to put downward pressure on the oil and gas industries, leading producers to slow drilling activity this year. The agency now forecasts that the U.S. will see a dip in production this year, dropping from a record high of 13.4 million barrels per day during the second quarter of this year, to around 13.3 million barrels per day by the end of 2025. 

Refineries Improving Efficiency – About 130 petroleum refineries are operating in the US. According to our latest annual Refinery Capacity Report, U.S. operable atmospheric distillation capacity, the primary measure of refinery capacity, totaled 18.4 million barrels per calendar day (b/cd) on January 1, 2025—essentially flat compared with last year. In the last ten years, there have been no new additions and more than 10 have closed (about 10%); the largest closures are Marathon in Martinez and Santa Maria in CA, Gallup in NM, as well as Lyondell in Houston. However, due to technological innovations and improved efficiencies, the closures have not affected total refining capacity (18 million barrels per day). Virtually every refinery in the US has integrated AI to optimize maintenance, ensure quality control, and improve compliance.

ON THE SCHEDULE THIS WEEK

House Approps Mark Up Set – The House Appropriations Energy and Water Development and Related Agencies Subcommittee holds a markup of the FY2026 Energy and Water Development and Related Agencies bill tonight at 6:00 p.m.

McCormick Summit Set for Pittsburgh – Senator Dave McCormick holds his inaugural Pennsylvania Energy and Innovation Summit at Carnegie Mellon University in Pittsburgh tomorrow. President Trump will be attending. The Summit will bring together the world’s top leaders in energy and AI, alongside the biggest global investors, labor and trades leaders, and government officials, to showcase Pennsylvania’s incredible potential to power the AI revolution.

Stimson Forum Looks at Critical Minerals in Myanmar – The Henry L. Stimson Center holds a virtual discussion tomorrow at 9:00 a.m., on rare earth mining and conflict economies in Northern Myanmar.

House Approps Marks Up Interior, EPA Funding – The House Appropriations Interior/ Environment Subcommittee holds a markup of the FY2026 Interior and Environment funding tomorrow at 10:00 a.m.

House Committee Address China Critical Minerals – The House Foreign Affairs East Asia and Pacific Subcommittee holds a hearing tomorrow at 10:00 a.m.  on breaking China's chokehold on critical mineral supply chains. The hearing witnesses include former Sen. Energy Chair Joe Manchin, as well as former undersecretary of States Jose Fernandez and Frank Fannon.

RNG, SAF Summit Set for Houston – Infocast’s RNG and SAF Capital Markets Summit will be held on Wednesday and Thursday in Houston.  The event will feature equity investors, debt providers, developers, and key market players across RNG and sustainable aviation fuel (SAF). These industry leaders will provide strategies to successfully navigate the challenges facing these projects, and fund industry growth.

Forum Looks at Katrina After 20 Years – On Wednesday at 9:30 a.m., New America holds a discussion on Katrina 20 years after the storm. Past and present New America Fellows, commentators, experts, and artists as they convene to consider the last two decades in policy, media, and culture.

Senate Environment Tackles Surface Transpo – The Senate Environment Committee holds a hearing Wednesday at 10:00 a.m. on constructing the surface transportation reauthorization bill.

Senate Commerce Hosts Pipeline Safety Nom – The Senate Commerce, Science and Transportation Committee holds a hearing on Wednesday at 10:00 a.m. on the nominations of Derek Barrs to be administrator of the Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration; Jonathan Morrison to be administrator of the NTHSA; and Paul Roberti to be administrator of the Pipeline and Hazardous Materials Safety Administration.

House Science Looks at Weather Forecaster – With the topic In high focus, the House Science Environment Subcommittee holds a hearing on harnessing innovative technologies to enhance weather forecasting. John Nielsen-Gammon, Texas state climatologist and director of the Southern Regional Climate Center, will be among the witnesses.

CSIS Holds Clean Energy Conference – The CSIS's Energy Security and Climate Change Program holds its Clean Energy Strategies Conference Wednesday at 1:00 p.m. Panel discussions will cover the U.S. manufacturing’s role in the global value chain, opportunities and barriers to exporting innovation models pioneered in the U.S. and their localization, and the use of development finance and strategic finance to support U.S. energy innovations abroad. Rep. Young Kim (R-CA) delivers remarks in a fireside chat.

ASE Hosts Energy Efficiency Forum – Alliance to Save Energy launches its virtual Summer Policy Series 2025 on Wednesday at 2:00 p.m. on energy efficiency and consumer affordability.  The forum looks at reducing costs for consumers and businesses, prioritizing affordability and access.

House Energy Subpanel Looks at Recycling – The House Energy and Commerce Subcommittee on Environment will hold a hearing on Wednesday at 10:15 a.m. focused on recycling innovations — particularly the nascent technologies deemed "advanced" or "chemical" recycling. My colleague Paul Nathanson (paul.nathanson@bracewell.com) can be a good resource here.

USEA Hosts Advanced Technology Showcase – The US Energy Assn holds its Advanced Energy Technology Showcase and Policy Forum on Thursday at the Ronald Reagan Trade Center. The event will explore the exciting evolution of cutting-edge energy technologies. This engaging event will illuminate their journey from discovery to deployment, showcasing how smart public and private investments are accelerating innovation. Rep. Julie Fedorchak, (R-N.D.), delivers keynote remarks and FCHEA’s Frank Wolak heads a panel on hydrogen with Air Liquide’s Joe Fawell.

RFF to Look at Energy Infrastructure – Resources for the Future (RFF) is hosting a series of webinars to discuss the critical need to build more energy infrastructure more quickly, policy efforts to facilitate this need, and the many remaining obstacles to growing energy infrastructure. On Thursday, RFF holds the kickoff webinar featuring a panel of experts discussing these issues including Clean Energy Buyers Alliance CEO Rich Powell, former FERC Commissioner Allison Clements and Heatmap News Founding Executive Editor Robinson Meyer.

ACORE Looks at OBBBA, Clean Energy Provisions – The American Council on Renewable Energy holds a virtual discussion on Thursday at 2:00 p.m. on the recently-passed Big Beautiful Bill and its clean energy sector impacts. This expert-led webinar will bring together industry leaders to unpack how the OBBB is shaping the future of energy in the United States. Speakers will review how the following provisions could impact clean energy deployment, manufacturing, and investment in the near and long term.

IN THE FUTURE

SAFE Report Looks at Strategy to Shift on Industrial Policy – SAFE will hold a webinar event Next Monday July 21^st at 1:00 p.m. to launch The Pillars of Power: A Strategy for Security and Industrial Resiliency. Grounded in securing essential raw materials and resources while remaining optimistic on the power of innovative breakthroughs in an always-evolving energy system, the report provides actionable steps for reshoring key supply chains, restoring America’s industrial base, and strengthening national defense through energy and technological leadership.

Forum Chats on Tariffs – On Wednesday July 23^rd at 3:00 p.m., the Cato Institute holds a fireside chat with Rep. Suzan DelBene (D-WA) and the Cato Institute’s Scott Lincicome on the implications of unchecked executive tariff powers and how Congress can reclaim its constitutionally mandated authority.

Congressional Renewable Expo Set – The Environmental and Energy Study Institute (EESI) and the House and Senate Renewable Energy and Energy Efficiency Caucuses hold the 28^th annual Congressional Renewable Energy and Energy Efficiency EXPO and Policy Forum (EXPO 2025) on July 24^th. Leading experts will showcase technologies and solutions that create jobs, lower utility bills for households and businesses, build resilience, protect our national security, and reduce greenhouse gas emissions.  Congressional speakers include Reps. Mariannette Miller-Meeks (R-Iowa), Emanuel Cleaver II (D-Mo.), Scott Peters (D-Calif.), Paul Tonko (D-N.Y.) and Sen. Ron Wyden (D-Ore.),  Industry speakers include FCHEA’s Connor Dolan, BCSE Board Chair Allison Hull of Sempra, NHA’s Malcolm Woolf, NEMA’s Patrick Hughes and many more.

NCAA’s Baker to Talk College Sports, NILs at Press Club Breakfast – NCAA President and former Massachusetts Gov. Charlie Baker will speak at a National Press Club Headliners Breakfast, Coffee and Conversation on Thursday, July 24^th at 9:30 a.m. Baker became President of the NCAA in March 2023, bringing with him a unique blend of leadership experience from both the private and public sectors. As the former two-term Governor of Massachusetts, he earned a national reputation for bipartisan leadership, fiscal discipline, and pragmatic problem-solving. Now at the helm of college athletics during one of its most transformational moments, President Baker is confronting the pressing challenges and opportunities facing student-athletes, universities, and the NCAA itself. From navigating the evolving landscape of name, image, and likeness (NIL), to ensuring equity, fairness, and competitive balance in collegiate sports, his leadership comes at a time when the very future of amateur athletics is being redefined.

TX Energy Forum Set – Rep. Mariannette Miller-Meeks (R-IA) will a speaker at the 6^th Annual Texas Energy Forum 2025, organized by U.S. Energy Stream on August 27^th and 28^th at the Petroleum Club of Houston,  TX. Key discussions will address the future of regulatory reform, tariffs, and tax incentives; advancements in oil, gas, and LNG markets; the expansion of power generation; and breakthroughs in Electric Vehicles (EVs) and charging infrastructure. The Forum will highlight advancements in solar and wind energy, nuclear power, hydrogen, biofuels, critical energy infrastructure, energy storage, and securing access to vital materials —all essential for meeting the world’s rising energy demands.