Energy Update: Week of January 3rd

Friends,               

“Merry New Year. Ha, Ha, Ha!!!”

Naga Eboko, exchange student from Cameroon while traveling on Amtrak.

Hope you enjoyed your holidays, spent time with friends and family and welcomed a good new year. 

Sorry we are a little late today, but I was really digging out of about 10 inches of snow here in Maryland.  And this is not a normal snow state, so this should impact us (people really don’t know how to drive here in DMV metro area) for a few days… or at least until it goes back to 60⁰ and rains in a few days.  That is the difference between Detroit, New England, Colorado, etc and here. While colder temps keeps snow around, they know how to plow there and people usually know how to handle it; yet here, everyone goes crazy, raids the grocery store and then we’ll just get warm weather in a couple days, it melts and things will be back to normal.

Thankfully, the Federal government has declared today a snow day so that should keep people off the roads. It has allowed Hannah, Adam and me to do a little of the old classic: bumper-hitching. (although bumpers are a lot harder to catch these days on newer cars)

Snow won’t necessarily mean Congress is shut down, but the House out this week and the Senate is scheduled only to hold a vote tomorrow at noon.  As well, Omicron spreading rapidly across the region, so I expect a quiet week, except for potential fireworks at tomorrow’s Senate Democratic Caucus meeting.

On its one-year anniversary, Punchbowl is writing that two dates have been discussed for President Joe Biden’s annual State of the Union address to Congress: Feb. 1 and March 1. There hasn’t been a final decision yet on timing. There’s never been a SOTU in March, so Biden has the chance to make history – or something.

There will be a lot this week on the anniversary of January 6 riots at Capitol and expect Democrats to link it to their political effort to pass their voting rights legislation, but probably unlikely to convince Sens. Manchin and Sinema to roll over on the filibuster.  On climate news, Manchin has shown a willingness to move forward with many of the climate provisions in BBB if some other changes are made on the much bigger political issues.  This is what we forecasted in the last report of 2021. 

Next week is the real start for the policy year.  The Chamber, API, EPRI and others all assess the state of play for 2022 in events.  And next Wednesday, former Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, who lost his battle with cancer on December 28^th, will lie in State at the US Capitol.

Also next week, we will start to tee up our annual 10 top energy issues for 2022.  If you are reading this and have suggestions, please feel free to forward…

Omicron is pretty bad out there for now so please make sure you do your best to stay safe and healthy.

Best,

Frank Maisano

(202) 828-5864

C. (202) 997-5932

FRANKLY SPOKEN

“Nuclear power is by no means a silver bullet and brings with it significant challenges and risks. But at the same time, when we refer to climate change as a crisis and existential risk, too often we do not act as if we believe that rhetoric to be true. When it comes to nuclear power, support would be much stronger if we took our own rhetoric seriously."

Jason Bordoff in his latest essay in Foreign Policy, explaining why a decade after the Fukushima nuclear accident set back nuclear power’s prospects worldwide, the outlook may finally be brightening for three reasons: the urgency of meeting increasingly ambitious climate goals, significant advances in nuclear technology, and national security concerns about China’s and Russia’s growing leadership in nuclear power.

ON THE PODCAST

Political Climate on Clean Energy Journalism w Amy Harder – On this week’s Power Hungry Podcast, host Robert Bryce interviews Gregg Easterbrook about his terrific new book The Blue Age: How the US Navy Created Global Prosperity – and Why We’re In Danger of Losing It. On the podcast, Gregg discusses the US Navy’s irreplaceable role as a peacekeeper on the high seas, why the age of supercarriers is likely over, the future of shipping through the Arctic Ocean, icebreakers, nuclear propulsion, the Law of the Sea Treaty, and why an armed conflict between the US and China is unlikely.

FUN OPINIONS

US needs to Source EV Materials Locally – In an opinion piece in the Duluth News-Tribune, Abby Wulf, director of the Center for Critical Minerals Strategy for SAFE Commanding Heights, writes if electric vehicles are going to succeed, we will need a new commitment and sense of urgency to responsibly sourcing the mined materials necessary to power this new generation of vehicles. If the U.S. is to effectively compete in the de-carbonized world, we must ensure the needed metals come from sources and methods that are as clean and sustainable as possible. That means we cannot exclude supplies of nickel sourced responsibly from within our borders.

FROG BLOG

WSJ Column Addresses Rare Earth Risks in Transition – In a Wall Street Journal column, energy expert Robert Bryce writes on rare earth elements and explains that they are "a key chokepoint in the development of the 'green' economy." He adds China's desire to control rare earths goes back to the days of Deng Xiaoping who said that while the Middle East has oil, "there are rare earths in China. We must take full advantage of this resource."  Bryce says that the Biden administration’s push for EVs will make the domestic auto sector dependent on Chinese supply chains. I wrote that the rush to electrify our cars and trucks, “would hand the keys to the American transportation sector to China, given Beijing’s near-monopoly on rare-earth elements like neodymium and dysprosium, which are used in the high-output motors of most electric vehicles."

FUN FACTS

Top Issues: The American Energy Society trend-spotting from their data to get the hottest topics in energy:

Top-5 hottest topics in Q1 2021:

1.            hydrogen (all)

2.            carbon capture (including EOR)

3.            methane management

4.            electric vehicles / smart-grid (tie)

5.            Biden Administration – hope

Top-5 hottest topics in Q4 2021:

1.            Sustainability

2.            Mining sector (coal, REMs, etc.)

3.            Hydrogen (in order, green, grey, blue)

4.            Biden Administration - limits

5.            COP26 - limited achievements

Retrospective - Top-5 hottest topics five years ago (2016):

1.            Tesla home battery systems

2.            smart-grid

3.            autonomous vehicles

4.            US LNG exports

5.            building efficiencies

IN THE NEWS

EIA: Energy Prices Rose More than Other Commodities in 2021 – EIA says energy prices used in the S&P Goldman Sachs Commodity Index (GSCI) ended 2021 59% higher than the first trading day of the year. Price increases were largely driven by increased demand from the initial phase of global economic recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic. By comparison, most other commodity indexes included in the GSCI increased by about 20%. The precious metals index was the only one to decline. The energy index of the GSCI increased more than twice as much as the industrial metals index on a percentage basis during 2021, the next highest commodity index group price change.

Admin Aims to Cut Approval Times for Power Lines – Our friends Katherine Blunt and Jennifer Hiller write in the WSJ that the Biden administration is trying to speed up the permitting process for high-voltage power lines as part of its drive to promote renewable energy. The changes—which include giving the federal government more authority to intervene in state-level permitting decisions—are meant to expedite the approval of new transmission lines, which often encounter regional opposition and face years of delays. Achieving climate goals would likely require some $300 billion in new power lines within the next decade to carry wind, solar and other green energy over long distances to the cities where most Americans live, analysts say...Critics of transmission projects over the years have cited various concerns including the use of eminent domain, environmental impacts and potential effects on property values, among other factors. The infrastructure bill empowers the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission to issue permits for certain transmission projects even if a state has denied approval, amending a provision of a 2005 law that attempted to expand the agency’s siting power. A 2009 U.S. appeals court decision limited that authority after the Piedmont Environmental Council, a Virginia nonprofit, challenged the agency’s interpretation of the statute.

2021 was a Good Year for…Coal – The International Energy Agency (IEA) said in its Coal 2021 report the amount of electricity generated from coal is expected to hit an all-time high in 2021 as electricity demand outpaces low-carbon supply options. Global power generation from coal is expected to jump by 9% in 2021, according to the Paris-based intergovernmental organization’s Coal 2021 report, which was released in late December. Coal-fired electricity generation accounts for about 30% of global CO2 emissions. The increase is driven by China, India, the US and the EU. In China, whose power generation accounts for a third of global coal consumption, coal-fired power generation is forecast to grow by 9%. In India, it is expected to grow by 12% in 2021. This takes coal-fired electricity generation to all time-highs in both countries.

EU to Classify Nuclear, Gas as Green Investments – A draft text released by the European Commission proposes classifying some nuclear power and natural gas projects as green investments. "Taking account of scientific advice and current technological progress as well as varying transition challenges across member states, the Commission considers there is a role for natural gas and nuclear as a means to facilitate the transition towards a predominantly renewable-based future," the commission stated.

ON THE SCHEDULE THIS WEEK

Atlantic Council Looks at Ukraine Energy – In Wednesday at 12:30 p.m., the Atlantic Council holds a discussion on the efforts to fix Ukraine’s energy sector.  Ambassador John Herbst, senior director of the Atlantic Council’s Eurasia Center, moderates a panel discussion with Dr. Anders Åslund, senior fellow at the Stockholm Free World Forum, Olga Bielkova, director of government and international affairs at Ukraine’s gas transportation system operator GTSOU, Maxim Timchenko, CEO of DTEK, and Svitlana Zalishchuk, international affairs advisor to the CEO of Naftogaz of Ukraine, on the future of energy security in Ukraine.

SEIA Event Looks at BBB Action – The Solar Energy Industries Association holds a webinar on Friday at 2:00 p.m. to coordinate efforts to support Build Back Better legislation in its current form.  SEIA says the legislation will build American jobs, strengthen the US economy and fight climate change.

IN THE FUTURE

Wilson Holds Forum on Europe’s Green Deal – The Wilson Center holds a forum next Monday at 10:00 a.m. to discuss the European Union's Green Deal, its implications for climate diplomacy and strategic foresight, and impact on transatlantic relations.  Kerry advisor David Livingston is among the speakers. 

Senate Energy Tackles Hydro Issues – The Senate Energy Committee will convene a hearing on Tuesday January 12^th at 10:00 a.m. to examine the opportunities and challenges for maintaining existing hydropower capacity, expanding hydropower at non-powered dams, and increasing pumped storage hydropower.  DOE’s Jennifer Garson, Bureau of Reclamation Commissioner Camille Touton will join our friend NHA CEO Malcolm Woolf and NW Public Power Assn Executive director Scott Corwin on the panel.

State of American Business Set – The US Chamber hosts its annual 2022 State of American Business on Tuesday January 11^th. 

Forum to Look at Clean Energy Initiatives – On Tuesday January 11^th at Noon, the Historically Black Colleges and Universities Clean Energy Initiative (CEI) and the National Association of State Energy Officials are partnering to host the first in a series of discussions to examine and advance opportunities for HBCUs and State Energy Offices to forge new partnerships, relationships, and innovations.  The events will look at upcoming federal and state investments across key sectors – the electric grid, renewable energy, energy efficiency, transportation, and agriculture. Presentations and facilitated conversations will unpack the workforce, economic development, and equity implications of state planning, policy design, and implementation of clean energy and climate solutions.

Former Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid to lie in State at US Capitol – Wednesday, January 12^th.

API Hosts State of Energy – The American Petroleum Institute and Energy Citizens hosts its 13^th annual 2022 State of Energy forum on Wednesday January 12^th at 10:00 a.m.  The event will shine a light on the role of American energy in building a better future. In a virtual setting, they will discuss the actions and initiatives the U.S. natural gas and oil industry is taking to protect American jobs, maintain our energy security and keep us globally competitive.

Forum Looks at Extreme Weather – The Environmental and Energy Study Institute (EESI) holds a briefing on Wednesday January 12^th at 11:00 a.m. looking at federal policies and programs supporting innovation in weather forecasting, an essential capability to help communities prepare for and adapt to extreme weather. During this briefing, experts will discuss the policies and programs that guide public-private  partnerships, emerging weather forecasting technologies, and new business models enabling the government to more effectively tap into private-sector innovation across the weather forecasting value chain. Former NOAA Administrators Kathy Sullivan and Timothy Gallaudet are among the speakers.

Forum to Look at Climate Change Strategies – The ICF Climate Center will host a webinar on Wednesday January 12^th at 11:00 a.m. featuring senior officials from USAID and the Millennium Challenge Corporation to discuss their new climate change strategies, including a focus on climate resilience and adaptation.

EPRI to Discuss State of Utilities – On Thursday January 13^th at 10:00 a.m., the Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI) holds its annual State of the Energy Industry discussion with it leadership team to discuss top highlights of 2021 and its focus for this year.

Forum to Look at Clean Energy Innovation – On Thursday January 13^th at 10:00 a.m., the Information Technology and Innovation Foundation’s (ITIF) Center for Clean Energy Innovation holds a discussion of the health of the global clean energy innovation system, why continuous investments in the system matter, and what a healthy system should look like.  IEA Chief Statistician Nick Johnstone is among the panelists.

Greenbiz Looks at Cement, Carbon Neutral Issues – Greenbiz hosts a forum next Thursday January 13^th at 1:00 p.m. looking at opportunities across the construction value chain to achieve carbon neutrality for the future built environment. The cement and concrete industry recently charted a path to carbon neutrality and there will be a focus on how others within the value chain can collaborate to help reach this goal.

AC Annual Global Energy Forum Set – From Friday January 14^th to Sunday January 16^th, the Atlantic Council holds its Global Energy Forum, the premiere international gathering of government, industry, and thought leaders to set the energy agenda for the year. The Atlantic Council Global Energy Forum annually convenes the world’s top energy and foreign policy decision-makers to set the global energy agenda for the year ahead and examine the longer-term geopolitical and geoeconomic implications of the changing energy system. The Forum is held under the patronage of His Highness Sheikh Mohammed Bin Zayed Al Nahyan, Crown Prince of Abu Dhabi and Deputy Supreme Commander of the United Arab Emirates Armed Forces, in partnership with the UAE Ministry of Energy and Infrastructure, ADNOC, and Mubadala. 

USEA Hosts State of Energy Industry – The US Energy Assn holds its 2022 State of the Energy Industry Forum on Thursday January 20^th.  The annual event features CEOs from nearly every major trade association as they share their policy objectives and priorities for 2022.

EV Charging Summit Set – The National EV Charging Summit will be held on January 20^th and is part of a year-long effort to stand up an unprecedented coalition to support federal action on a national charging network for light-, medium- and heavy- duty vehicles. The National EV Charging Initiative brings together automakers, power providers, electric vehicle and charging industry leaders, labor, and public interest groups to signal they are ready, willing, and able to act now. Members are collaborating to accelerate shovel-ready charging infrastructure projects that will put people to work, infuse the economy with billions of dollars of investment, and increase access to clean transportation.

Forum to Look at Nuclear Energy Supply – The Nuclear Energy Institute holds its Nuclear Fuel Supply Forum on January 26^th at Noon to explore policy issues related to nuclear fuel at the half-day Nuclear Fuel Supply Forum. Speakers from key government agencies and organizations that shape policy and evaluate the direction of the markets will present their latest insights on the future of the industry.

Ethanol Conference Set – The Renewable Fuels Association holds the National Ethanol Conference (NEC) in New Orleans on February 21^st to 23^rd.  Since 1996, the NEC has been recognized as the ethanol conference for the latest, timely information on marketing, legislative and regulatory issues facing the industry. With numerous networking opportunities, more business meetings are conducted and contacts made at this conference than at any other ethanol conference.