Energy Update: Week of January 26th

Friends,

I am reporting from Florida this morning because I am stuck here due to the massive winter storm which has brought extreme cold, heavy snow, and damaging ice from the Southwest through the Mid-Atlantic, extending into the Northeast – Happy Accident. While we didn’t get as much snow as first forecast in Washington, the added sleet/ice will shut down the DMV and several other parts of the country (from Texas to Boston) for at least a few days or so. 

Speaking of the storm, Investor-owned electric companies, electric cooperatives and public power utilities have been coordinating closely to ensure the industry is prepared to safely restore power as quickly as possible for any impacted communities. More than 50,000 workers from at least 37 states and DC have been strategically prepositioned and are already in action in many regions. Finally on Sunday, DOE granted PJM Interconnection emergency permission to run all its power generation at full tilt with the risks to the power supply across the 13-state region stretching from the Midwest to the mid-Atlantic states.

Speaking of the Midwest, the President head to Iowa tomorrow afternoon to address energy and the economy in Clive, Iowa.  Buckle up…

As for DC, the Senate needs to finalize as few more appropriations bills with one major sore thumb: funding for Homeland Security, which is clearly in the cross hairs given the controversies in Minnesota. The Senate was set to move a six-bill minibus to clear the appropriations bills the House has passed ahead of the funding deadline on Thursday. But remember this house is out this week and unlikely to return, so a minor shutdown, focused on DHS seems to be certainly possible.

There are two potential Wednesday hearings this week, pending weather, on permitting in Senate Environment and on Venezuela in Senate Foreign Relations. The permitting hearing features API’s Dustin Meyer and SEIA’s Abby Hopper (a swan song for her as she leaves SEIA at the end of the week.)

Again, pending weather, tomorrow features two important events, including: 1) the US Chamber Critical Minerals Working Group holds a briefing on Capitol Hill featuring Dan Yergin and Carlos Pasquel. The session will highlight the release of S&P’s study, Copper in the Age of AI: Challenges of Electrification; and 2) the National Center for Energy Analytics will release its new report, Energy Delusions and the Return of Realism: A Critique of Oil “Scenarios” in the IEA World Energy Outlook 2025 during an event on Capitol Hill and online.  Finally, Heatmap talks permitting/transmissions with Sen. Martin Heinrich in the evening at Ario. 

Super LX is set for February 8^th at Levi's Stadium in Santa Clara, CA with the New England Patriots returning to the show (don’t turn on a TV in New England for the next two weeks) after a 10-7 snow bowl over the Bo Nix-less Broncos.  They will face Seattle who held off a late charge by the LA Rams.  It is a rematch of the unforgettable 2015 Super Bowl XLIX (49) when the Patriots stopped a late game winning drive with Malcolm Butler’s iconic interception at the 1-yard line that sealed the victory.

Not certain how much will happen this week but feel free to call with any questions.

Best,

Frank Maisano

(202) 828-5864

Quarter to C. (202) 997-5932

FRANKLY SPOKEN

"It's killed our momentum, and this is something we've been trying to do for years. And it benefits everybody. It's trillions of dollars of investment that's sitting there locked up because we don't have the certainty in permitting."

Senate Environment Committee Chair Shelly Moore Capito, lamenting the “terrible” timing of the Trump administration’s latest effort to freeze offshore wind development, which disrupted the “good path” lawmakers were on for moving permit reform legislation. 

"At the moment, I think pressure is mounting on the Trump administration from Republicans in Congress who … don’t appreciate what’s going on, and from powerful interests like the Chamber [of Commerce] and the American Petroleum Institute and more."

Senate Environment Committee top Democrat Sheldon Whitehouse addressing the same permit questions

ON THE PODCAST

MIT Grid Experts Talk AI – In this episode of the CERAWeek Podcast, host Atul Arya is joined by MIT faculty leaders Professor John R. Williams and Dr. Abel Sanchez to examine the impact of generative AI for senior leaders across the energy value chain. As AI transforms electricity demand while reshaping operations, risk management and competitiveness, the conversation previews a new two-day executive education program launching at CERAWeek 2026: “Generative AI for Energy Executives: Intelligence per Watt.”

FUN OPINIONS

WSJ Editorial: Coal Is Saving With Winter Weather – In an editorial, the Wall Street Journal ed board writes coals, the energy source Biden tried to shut down, is riding to the deep-freeze rescue of the electric grid during this weekend’s arctic blast. The weather has put much of the U.S. grid through a stress test and served as another alert about the growing risks to electric-power reliability. The North American Electric Reliability Corp. warned in November that “extreme winter conditions extending over a wide area could result in electricity supply shortfalls.” That’s what happened. Frigid temperatures supercharged demand in areas where Americans use electricity for heating, especially in Texas. Americans can be grateful the Biden crowd didn’t succeed in forcing all coal plants to shut down.

FROG BLOG

Hoping for Coal in Not Good Policy – In an op-ed in The Hill, Brian Murray, director of Duke University’s Nicholas Institute for Energy, Environment & Sustainability, writes today’s effort to resurrect coal while sidelining clean power isn’t coherence — it’s contradiction. These coal interventions ultimately may mean that a handful of plants will run for a few extra months — but that’s not the greatest danger to America’s economy, energy security and well-being. The more serious risk is that energy policy is being reduced to episodic exercises of emergency authority, untethered from economics, planning or climate reality.

FUN FACTS

EVs still Growing InA No Demand Market:  Rho Motion’s latest numbers show global electric vehicle sales hit 20.7 million in 2025, up 20 percent year on year. Europe surged 33 percent. China grew another 17 percent. The rest of the world nearly 50 percent. Even with a wobble in North America, the global picture is clear: people are still buying EVs in very large numbers.

IN THE NEWS

New Low Volume EV Platform Released During Washington Auto Show Policy Day – Everrati and Aria Group Inc. are launching a new electric vehicle platform designed specifically for manufacturers that have been priced out of electrification. It is being released in conjunction with the Washington Auto Show’s policy day on Thursday after being previewed at CES In Las Vegas. The joint platform combines Everrati’s OEM-grade, modular electric powertrain with Aria’s lightweight composite chassis architecture to deliver a production-ready EV solution for low-volume OEMs, specialty vehicle programs, heritage brands, and defense and off-road applications. The result: dramatically lower cost, reduced development risk, and faster time to market compared with traditional clean-sheet EV programs.

“This is about removing the structural barriers that have made low-volume electrification slow, expensive and risky,” said Justin Lunny, CEO of Everrati. “By pairing a proven electric powertrain with a highly adaptable composite chassis, we’re giving manufacturers a credible, scalable route to EVs without the usual financial burden.”

Clive Hawkins, Aria Group Inc. CEO added: “Our customers consistently struggle to balance packaging, performance, cost and regulatory compliance. This partnership brings together two complementary technologies to solve that problem in a practical, commercially viable way.”

The turnkey platform is engineered to support low- and medium-volume production, including programs required to meet U.S. crash and regulatory standards. A joint development mule and demonstrator vehicle is planned, with active discussions already underway with prospective customers in North America and Europe. The Everrati–Aria collaboration offers an alternative to traditional small scale EV development at a time when investors and policymakers are increasingly focused on scalable electrification.

Gevo ND Plant Achieves Carbon Removal Credit Trading Milestone – Gevo, a leader in renewable fuels and chemicals and carbon management, says North Dakota plant has issued more than 500,000 engineered carbon-dioxide removal certificates, known as CORCs, since carbon capture and storage (“CCS”) activities began in June of 2022. The Gevo North Dakota site is believed to be the largest producer of engineered carbon removal credits and the only ethanol carbon capture and storage project issuing Puro.earth-certified certificates with thousand-year permanence.

“Gevo designed its carbon business to operate with integrity at scale across regulated low carbon fuel markets and voluntary markets,” says Alex Clayton, Chief Carbon Officer for Gevo. “By applying Puro.earth’s industry-leading standards for CCS and maintaining strict controls to prevent double-counting, we have been able to deliver high-quality carbon removal consistently and credibly.  Reaching 500,000 CORCs demonstrates that engineered carbon removal can be both scalable and reliable.”

Gevo is at the forefront of an industry that we believe is only beginning to recognize what true scale and quality can be. Recently, GND’s carbon capture and storage efforts received an upgrade to an “A” rating from BeZero Carbon Ltd., a preeminent global carbon rating agency. In a growing market that, according to CDR.fyi, has eclipsed $11 billion for carbon dioxide removal credits just 2.8 percent of those purchases have been delivered. Our GND plant delivers a level of scale, operational excellence, and consistent high‑quality production that sets the benchmark for our industry.

Solar/Storage Key in Mass – In a new study by SEIA and Synapse Energy Economics, researchers compared a future where Massachusetts continues to add new solar and storage capacity as planned through 2030, with a future where no new projects are built after 2025. 

Continuing the state’s leadership on solar and storage delivers real results: more than $313 million in annual consumer savings by 2030 and stronger winter grid reliability.

Massachusetts has been a longstanding leader on clean energy and the solar industry employs over 11,000 people across the Commonwealth. As federal policy shifts, and state leaders consider legislation to manage rising energy costs, policies that support the fundamental role of solar and storage are essential. If Massachusetts stays on track, by 2030, solar and storage will deliver:

• $313 million in annual savings for Massachusetts electricity customers
• $684 million in total New England savings, reducing regional price pressure
• 11% of demand served during the highest-load winter hours
• 44% of avoided energy costs occurring in winter, when reliability challenges are greatest
• 29 billion cubic feet of natural gas avoided, equal to 25% of today’s electric-sector use
• $432 – 721 million in climate and public health benefits, avoiding 1.6 million metric tons of CO₂. That’s the equivalent of taking 350,000 cars off the road for a year.

ON THE SCHEDULE THIS WEEK

Forum Looks at Critical Minerals – Tomorrow at 9:00 a.m., the Atlantic Council’s Global Energy Center will host Korea Zinc Executive Chairman Yun B. Choi for a fireside chat exploring allied partnership models for minerals security.

NCEA Energy Report Set for Release – The National Center for Energy Analytics will release its new report, Energy Delusions and the Return of Realism: A Critique of Oil “Scenarios” in the IEA World Energy Outlook 2025, tomorrow at 10:00 a.m. during an event on Capitol Hill and online. This briefing will examine the assumptions behind the IEA’s oil-market forecasts and their implications for policy, investment, and energy security. Former EIA head Adam Sieminski is one of the authors of the report and fireside Chats will include Sens. John Barrasso and John Hickenlooper.

CEN Forum Looks at Energy Going Forward in 2026 – Tomorrow at Noon, the Conservative Energy Network holds a forward-looking policy briefing on what to expect in 2026. The event will focus on a clear understanding of the 2026 energy policy environment and practical guidance for engaging where it matters most. Speakers will include SAFE’s Skip Bates, CRES’s Christina Baworosky, Niskanan’s Rachel Levine and James Ritchotte of Americans for a Clean Energy Grid.

Chamber to Release New Study Critical Minerals – Tomorrow at 2:00 p.m. on Capitol Hill, the US Chamber’s Critical Minerals Working Group holds a briefing featuring Dan Yergin and Carlos Pasquel. The session will highlight the release of S&P’s study, Copper in the Age of AI: Challenges of Electrification. This important new study analyzes the global outlook for copper supply and demand through 2040, focusing on copper’s essential role in meeting the growing requirements of electrification, digitalization, and technologies such as AI, data centers, electric vehicles, and defense.

EESI to Address Wildfire Innovations – Tomorrow at 3:00 p.m., the Environmental and Energy Study Institute (EESI) and the Federation of American Scientists (FAS) hold a briefing on emerging solutions to tackle the wildfire crisis, and the federal policy strategies for getting these solutions into the field. This briefing will highlight efforts to address this crisis, including wildfire preparedness, response, and recovery policies and innovations in the United States. Panelists will identify evidence-backed approaches—from smart zoning and upgraded building codes to fuels management and early detection—and the role of federal policy in supporting the rapid development and cost-effective implementation of these tactics at scale. Attendees will leave this briefing with an understanding of how to strengthen wildfire mitigation efforts, bolster community wildfire resilience, ease the strain on emergency services, and save taxpayer dollars.

Heinrich Chats Transmissions at Heatmap Event – Tomorrow at 5:00 p.m. at Ario in Washington, Heatmap News and Third Way host an exclusive live event exploring the frontlines of America’s transmission buildout — from the technologies advancing it forward to the bottlenecks threatening to slow it down. The event will feature a fireside chat with Sen. Martin Heinrich among other interviews.

Senate Foreign Relations Looks at Venezuela Policy – The Senate Foreign Relations Committee holds a hearing on Wednesday at 10:00 a.m. focused on U.S. Policy towards Venezuela.

Senate Environment Tackles Permitting – The Senate Environment Committee holds a hearing on Wednesday at 10:00 a.m. on the second part of its the Federal environmental review and permitting processes. Witnesses include BRT’s Brendan Bechtel, LIUNA’s Brent Booker, API’s Dustin Meyer, SEIA’s Abigail Hopper and David Terry of the National Association of State Energy Officials.

R Street to Focus on Electricity, Energy Demand – The R Street Institute holds a virtual discussion on Thursday at 11:00 a.m. on the US electric reliability outlook and policy implications. Topics include NERC’s “2025-2026 Winter Long-Term Reliability Assessment”, takeaways from R Street’s paper “Twelve Policy Priorities to Secure Bulk Electric Reliability”, the role of markets, technologies, and policies in shaping reliable, least-cost outcomes and the status of natural gas-electric industry coordination and cold weather readiness. Speakers include former NE ISO head Gordon van Welie, EPSA’s Todd Snitchler and NERC’s John Moura.

Forum Looks at Carbon Markets – Also on Thursday at 11:00 a.m., New York University’s Institute for Policy Integrity holds an event about carbon markets and credit equivalence. At this webinar, researchers and practitioners will discuss novel approaches to assess equivalence between different offset projects and improve outcomes from carbon markets.

Event/Report focuses on Reactor Size – On Friday at 11:00 a.m., the Nuclear Innovation Alliance will hold an event to release a new report on right-sizing reactors. The report explores the question of what size reactors the nuclear industry should focus on if they want to build fast and cheap.

Multi-Group Transportation Workshop Set – The 2026 Transportation Engineering, Economics, and Policy (TEEP) Workshop is organized jointly by the University of Maryland, Carnegie Mellon University, Cornell University, University of Michigan and Resources for the Future and will be held on Friday. This one-day event highlights interdisciplinary research on the economic, equity, environmental, and health implications of new technologies and policies, and features discussions with policy experts on the future of US transportation policies.

IN THE FUTURE

HVACR Expo Set for Vegas – The Air Conditioning, Heating and Refrigeration Institute is set for Las Vegas on February 2^nd to 4^th.  The AHR Expo will take over Orlando for a fast-paced week of learning, reconnecting, perusing and demoing everything new coming to market in HVACR. Topics spanning industry sectors included tariffs, regulation updates, A2Ls, AI, equipment design and more.

NARUC Winter Meetings Set for DC – On February 9^th to 11^th at the Westin Downtown in DC, the National Assn of Regulatory Utility Commissioners (NARUC) holds its Winter Policy Summit.  Speakers include FERC Chair Loretta Swett, Commissioner Judy Chang, NERC’s Jim Robb, AGA CEO Karen Harbert, NRECA CEO Jim Matheson, EEI CEO Drew Maloney and Duke Energy Florida/Midwest CEO Louis Renjel.

Offshore Wind Conference Set for NYC – The International Partnering Forum (IPF), a major offshore wind conference organized by Business/wind advocacy group Oceanic on February 9^th to 12^th in New York City at the Sheraton Times Square.  The event is where marine renewable technology meets execution, especially now with wind under pressure from the Trump Administration.  U.S. and global leaders in wave, tidal, floating solar, and large-scale ocean energy projects will speak about turn ideas into action on projects, ports, vessels, grid, and transmission.

National Ethanol Conference Set – The National Ethanol Conference will be held on February 14^th to 16^th in Orlando. NEC is the most widely attended executive-level conference for the ethanol industry. Past events have welcomed industry leaders from across the United States and 20 countries. Since 1996, the Renewable Fuels Association’s NEC has been recognized as the ethanol conference for the latest, timely information on marketing, legislative, and regulatory issues facing the industry. Our friends Kevin Book and API’s Wil Hupman are among the speakers, along with ethanol industry experts.

BCSE, BNEF to Roll Out 2026 Sustainability Factbook – The Business Council on Sustainable Energy and Bloomberg New Energy Finance will roll out the 2026 Sustainability Factbook on February 18^th.  Details to come. The Sustainable Energy in America Factbook provides valuable year-over-year data and insights on the American energy transformation.

Carbon Forum Set for San Diego – The Carbon Solutions Forum is set for Wednesday and Thursday, February 18^th and 19^th in San Diego.  The event will examine what early CCS projects are revealing and how execution strategies are shifting. Our friend Jon Dearing of National Cement will be on CCUS and integrating carbon capture into energy and industrial facilities.  EPA’s Scott Mason and DOE’s Valerie Reed are also speakers.

State of the Union Set – House Speaker Mike Johnson invited Trump to give the State of the Union address on February 24^th.

Yergin, Pascal Discuss Chamber Copper Report – On Tuesday February 27^th on Capitol Hil, the US Chamber holds an in-person Critical Minerals Working Group briefing featuring S&P experts Dan Yergin and Carlos Pasquel. The session will highlight the release of S&P’s study, “Copper in the Age of AI: Challenges of Electrification.” This important new study analyzes the global outlook for copper supply and demand through 2040, focusing on copper’s essential role in meeting the growing requirements of electrification, digitalization, and technologies such as AI, data centers, electric vehicles, and defense.

EPSA Competitive Power Summit Hosts Danley, Rosner – The Electric Power Supply Assn holds its 5^th annual Competitive Power Summit on March 3^rd at the Grand Hyatt.  The event features a day of expert panels and featured speakers discussing critical issues facing competitive power and the U.S. electric system, as well as what it takes to build what’s needed at the pace required to keep power both reliable and cost-effective.  Headline speakers include DOE’s James Danley and FERC Commissioner and former Chair David Rosner.