Energy Update: Week of February 5th

Friends,

Last night, the Grammy's poured it on with the big winners all women, led by Pheobe Bridger (Four) and SZA (three). The big awards went to Billie Eilish (“What Was I Made For?”) for song, Miley Cyrus (“Flowers”) for record, her first EVER, and Taylor Swift’s (“Midnights”) best album, her historic 4^th win. As a big fan of Fast Car in the late 80s, I loved the Tracy Chapman-Luke Combs performance and it was nice to see Joni Mitchell for the first time and Billy Joel after a 22 year hiatus.

More importantly, this afternoon launches the 71^st Beanpot, college hockey's most storied in-season tourney. And tonight's second game at 7:30 p.m. features #1 Boston College vs. #2 Boston University. You can see the action on NESN and sports bars across the country who hold Beanpot watch parties, which my colleague Paul Nathanson (BU alum) will never miss.

Well, energy issues sure have popped to the front page…and it is not even summer yet when we usually get the political football kicked our way. There is definitely a lot going on and I will discuss them on Sirius XM’s P.O.T.U.S. with my friend Julie Mason on Wednesday at 4:30 p.m.

Let start first with what we expect to occur this week that is new: The EPA’s PM NAAQS standards which was sent out of OMB on Friday and we expect to be signed by EPA head Regan today or tomorrow, then released shortly thereafter. As you might expect, the rule is overburdensome (expect it to 9ppm down from 12), which in essential throws most of the country pout of compliance and will make any permitting very difficult. One fun fact: enviro activists tried to get the Obama Administration to do this in 2012 (his reelect year) and his political folks decided to punt it because it was going to be too burdensome on communities around the countries. Of course, this year, the opposite seems to be the case. The Biden Admin proposes enviro-friendly plans to get their support and either the courts or Congress stop them. Perhaps, it plays out similarly here. There is a long line waiting to get to the courthouse on this rule led by the Democratic Governor of Kentucky. Some rumors out there say they might be heeding some of those calls from Democrats like Brashaer and Kansas Gov. Laura Kelly and are looking at potential delaying implementation.

After the recent election-year LNG pause by the Biden Administration, the Senate (Thursday w DOE’s David Turk) and House Energy (tomorrow) Committees will take their first stab at the decision – and don’t expect it to be pleasant. And there is a ton going on around the LNG spin up, including serious pushback from some moderate Democrats who are concerned about limiting LNG exports. A group led by Rep. Marc Veasy (TX) that includes Don Davis (NC), Mary Peltola (AK), Lou Correa (CA) and Jim Costa (CA) and a handful of other TX Dems, as well as a strong statement from PA Sens. Casey and Fetterman are pushing back. AS a run up to tomorrow’s House hearing, more than 150 House Republicans are calling for President Biden to reverse his moratorium on liquefied natural gas (LNG) export projects, an action they argued negatively impacts the energy security of the U.S. and its allies.  And finally, Venture Global LNG and National Grid signed a long-term agreement today to access storage and regasification capacity at the Grain LNG terminal in the U.K.

Not much else happening in our space – but isn’t NAAQS and LNG pauses enough? Next week, the House is already saying it will be energy week, with a parade of votes on energy issues. More on this next Monday’s update, but expect to see LNG, gas prices, natgas tax, maybe gas stoves, furnaces and more.

It is Super Bowl week so get those pools ready. Also, remember your prop bets on Taylor Swift issues…  (BTW, not a fan of Taylor Swift music as you may know, but kudos to her for everything she has done on this issue and expanding the NFL viewership. Here is a good story about her kindness to the employees at Baltimore’s M&T Bank Stadium that should give you a sense of her)

Finally, you should check out all five episodes of my friend Robert Bryce’s excellent new docuseries: Juice: Power, Politics & The Grid. It’s a compelling look at the perils facing our more important energy network — the electric grid — and why we need urgency to fix it. While we don’t always agree on everything, his 20-minute mini-docs are on YouTube and worth the views. See more details below.

See you at the LNG hearings of course…Call with questions.

                                                                                                        

FRANKLY SPOKEN

“If this pause becomes longer and there’s some kind of policy initiative around limiting LNG exports, then I think the whole world goes into a situation where the energy transition slows in pace. As it sits right now, it would definitely be more of a shift towards coal” rather than renewables since coal is cheaper internationally.’

Ademiju Allen, a senior analyst at Rystad Energy on the impacts of the LNG pause if it is extended in a story in The Hill

 

ON THE PODCAST

Granholm, Crabtree Talk LNG – This week, The DOE team was out defending its LNG pause on CNBC. Secretary of Energy Jennifer Granholm hit the topic on CNBC’s Squawk Box: U.S. Energy Secretary Granholm on LNG export pause: A 'temporary' pause so we can have an assessment | Watch (msn.com)  while Asst Sect Brad Crabtree hit a Baker Hughes Conference also via CNBC: Finally, former Sen. Mary Landrieu also jumped on Brian Sullivan’s “Last Call” to talk LNG export delays being ‘completely contrary’ to President Biden’s climate goals.

 

FUN OPINIONS

Deep Sea Nodules are National Security – In an op-ed in Federal Times, Defense News and other Searchlight publications, Metals Company CEO Gerard Barron writes that deep sea critical mineral will be an essential part of national security issues.   Congress is recognizing the strategic role polymetallic nodules can play in bolstering U.S. national security the economy, and American manufacturing. With the passing of the National Defense Authorization Act by wide majority in both the House and the Senate, the Defense Department is now tasked with outlining this roadmap. While the US is not pursuing minerals like TMC and others, the midstream and downstream are really what the U.S. aims to own.

Sommers: LNG Decision is Bad for Our Allies, Long-Term Success – In an opinion piece in Fortune, API head Mike Sommers outlines what's at stake under the Biden administration's LNG permit freeze and warns of the real-world consequences for U.S. allies, American jobs and climate progress. Curtailing reliable future U.S. LNG supply to Europe, while Russia continues to weaponize energy against nations opposed to its war in Ukraine, is a blow to America’s security and a gift to Moscow. As energy historian Daniel Yergin said, “No one hates U.S. LNG more than Vladimir Putin.”

 

FROG BLOG

Cement Industry to Biden: PM Creates Challenges for Infrastructure, Materials – In a blog post on LinkedIn, Portland Cement Association CEO Mike Ireland writes in a letter to President Biden that US Cement manufacturers would like to finish the job they started, and continue to provide the materials to rebuild America’s infrastructure—work made possible by his Bipartisan Infrastructure Law. Ireland says the cement industry is concerned about the EPA proposed rule to further lower the particulate matter (PM) emissions standard that the White House is expected to finalize in coming days and that it will undermine US infrastructure and climate goals.

 

FUN FACTS

Fossil Fuel Revenues are Hard to Displace:  Nat Bullard release. In case you haven't seen it, you can access the full deck using this link. It contains astounding amount of data and information. Check out this excellent slide on how energy sources have scaled. AGA Economist Richard Meyer wondered what would happen if he included U.S. shale gas:

 

IN THE NEWS

Hydrogen to Power Metallica Tour Buses on European Tour – You know I have talked a lot about trucks and hydrogen,  Well, Metallica is helping the nascent hydrogen fuel industry thrash its way into existence, our friend Tim McDonnell reports for Semafor. When the iconic metal band goes on tour across Europe this summer, some of its guitars and drums will be hauled in trucks powered by hydrogen fuel cells. The band is keen to cut the carbon footprint of its tours, said Gerrit Marx, CEO of the Italy-based truck manufacturer Iveco Group, which is designing custom low-carbon trucks for the tour. The Iveco collaboration makes Metallica the latest advocate for hydrogen, a controversial fuel that could eventually be critical to the clean energy transition but the global supply of which is currently made almost exclusively from unabated fossil fuels. Marx spoke to me on stage during Baker Hughes’ annual meeting in Florence, Italy, where some of the world’s biggest investors in hydrogen said the key to realizing the fuel’s green aspirations is to turn a blind eye, for now, to how it gets made. Instead, they’re chasing any possible end user — from steel plants to metal bands — to scale the industry up on the expectation that falling costs for renewable energy and carbon capture technology will eventually make hydrogen a genuine solution to climate change.

Columbia Energy Journal Fellows Program Opens Applications – The Center on Global Energy Policy (CGEP) at Columbia University’s School of International and Public Affairs today announced applications for the 2024 Energy Journalism Fellows program, which will be held on the university’s campus in New York City from June 11-14, 2024. Taught by CGEP Scholars, Columbia faculty, and other academic, industry, and government experts, the Energy Journalism Fellows program (EJF) offers journalists the chance to learn about the intersecting disciplines shaping the global energy sector, including finance and markets, climate change, science and technology, policy, and geopolitics. Since its inception in 2017, the Energy Journalism Fellows program has enrolled 140 journalists from the US and around the world. The EJF program is open to journalists covering energy, climate, and the environment with preference given to reporters with five or fewer years of experience on the beat.

DOE Furnace Rule Under Fire – A new Furnace rule by the DOE is catching fire from Republicans. Sen. Ted Cruz introduced a disapproval resolution under the Congressional Review Act (CRA) to push back against DOE’s final rule on gas furnace efficiency standards. The Biden administration’s rule will go into effect on February 16^th, forcing manufacturers to sell only furnaces that convert at least 95% of fuel into heat. The rule will effectively ban all non-condensing furnace models, coercing a majority of American households to adopt electric heat pumps or pay thousands of dollars to renovate their homes to meet the requirements of new residential gas furnaces. In December, AGA joined other trade associations and a manufacturer in filing a legal challenge to DOE’s final rule establishing a new energy conservation standard for consumer furnaces. The rule effectively banned the sale of non-condensing natural gas furnaces and affected 55% of U.S. households. It also saddled American families and businesses with increased costs for little environmental gain. 

Congress Starts Pushback on LNG – New legislation in the House of representatives, “Unlocking our Domestic LNG Potential Act,” was introduced by U.S. Congressman August Pfluger and seeks to place the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission in charge of all LNG export permitting in the United States. In addition, Sen. John Kennedy has threatened to block all State and Energy Department nominations going forward.

Groups Call for End to LNG Pause –The Independent Petroleum Association of America (IPAA) joined the Energy Workforce & Technology Council (EWTC), US Oil and Gas Association (USOGA), National Ocean Industries Association (NOIA), Texas Alliance of Energy Producers and Gulf Energy Alliance today in urging Congress to take immediate legislative action to counter the Biden Administrations’ recent decision to halt LNG Permits.

“Removing DOE from the process will help to ensure that political maneuvers will not interfere with energy supplies,” wrote the trade associations. “It is vital that Congress send an immediate message to our allies, and enemies, abroad that U.S LNG will continue to flow uninterrupted for many years to come.”

The Biden Administration’s announcement to pause new non-FTA permits for LNG export facilities threatens to stifle the progress made by the unprecedented ramp-up of the United States’s domestic energy production and the fundamental shift in European energy security.

Docuseries on Grid Ready to View – All five episodes of Robert Bryce’s excellent new docuseries: Juice: Power, Politics & The Grid are out and on YouTube. It’s a compelling look at the perils facing our more important energy network — the electric grid — and why we need to do to fix it. Each episode is about 20 minutes long. The first episode focuses on the Texas blackouts in 2021. The last one explains why we need long-term thinking about our power grid. The docuseries was directed by Tyson Culver. They have a website — juicetheseries.com —  with links to all the episodes and lots of other content, including short clips from some of the 30+ interviews they did for the docuseries. For updates on the series, and broader coverage of the energy and power sectors, I also suggest you follow Bryce on Substack: robertbryce.substack.com While we don’t always agree with him, his approach is always interesting and well-though out.

Great Plains Policy Blueprint Rolled Out – A new report from an industry-labor-NGO partnership recommends a suite of policies to Congress and the federal administration that would set the U.S. industrial sector on track to achieve net-zero emissions by midcentury. The 2024 Federal Policy Blueprint reflects the shared priorities of the Industrial Innovation Initiative (I³), co-convened by the Great Plains Institute (GPI) and World Resources Institute (WRI), representing a consensus among 19 signatories from industry, labor, nonprofit and other backgrounds. The new policy blueprint builds on previous priorities outlined in I³'s 2021 report, Decarbonizing Industry by 2050: A Federal and State Policy Blueprint. The 2024 blueprint recommends:

• Build-out of supportive infrastructure for carbon management and hydrogen, such as for transportation and storage, as well as improved regulatory oversight of these processes.
• Access to affordable, clean electricity to meet industrial energy demand while accounting for industrial needs across the energy system, such as further development of the transmission and distribution system.
• Robust data reporting and greenhouse gas benchmarking standards for embodied carbon that together underpin the success of green procurement and related policies.
• Support for market innovation to enable the rapid scale up of cost-competitive, low-emissions technologies through government funding and support for existing markets or tax credits and RDD&D.

The 2024 Federal Policy Blueprint builds upon recent momentum following the federal government's commitment to provide hundreds of billions of dollars in tax credits and investments through the 2021 Bipartisan Infrastructure Law (BIL) and the 2022 Inflation Reduction Act (IRA). Clear guidance for implementing these investments and getting cross-cutting decarbonization solutions to scale will be critically important to achieving midcentury climate goals.

 

ON THE SCHEDULE THIS WEEK

House Energy Picks Up LNG Pause question – Tomorrow at 10:00 a.m., the House Energy subpanel on Energy will hold a hearing on the DOE’s LNG pause. Eric Cormier of the SW Louisiana Chamber of Commerce, EQT CEO Toby Rice and NRDC’s Gillian Gianetti will testify.

House Science Looks at AI – The House Science Research and Technology Subcommittee holds a hearing tomorrow at 10:00 a.m. on "Federal Science Agencies and the Promise of AI in Driving Scientific Discoveries."

House Homeland Security Looks at Water Attacks – The House Homeland Security Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Protection Subcommittee holds a hearing tomorrow at 10:00 a.m. on securing operational technology for the water sector.

Forum Looks at Energy Transition – New America hosts a virtual discussion tomorrow at 10:00 a.m. dissecting myths surrounding a just energy transition. Planetary Politics and the Centre for Public Impact (CPI) will hold an online panel discussion featuring Tegan Blaine, Kamila Camilo, and Hope Okuthe. This will be the start of a larger workshop series from us in the lead up to COP30 in Brazil. The discussion will look at what actions must be taken to support an energy transition centered on both justice and climate action.

Forum to Look at Modeling on Energy Transition – On Wednesday at 10:30 a.m., the NYU School of Law’s Institute for Policy Integrity holds a forum on modeling the energy transition. Prominent researchers and government officials will share insights from their energy system modeling and discuss its implications for policymaking. The discussion will explore comparisons between cutting-edge models, dataset choices, the incorporation of political economy insights, and the trajectory of the energy transition in the United States.

White House Leaders Headline Tech Summit – On Wednesday at Capital Turnaround, the Information Technology Industry Council (ITIC) holds DC's premier tech policy summit, The Intersect 2024, where this year’s major policy decisions, technological advancements, and innovative strategies will take center stage. ITI’s second annual summit will bring together hundreds of legislators, private sector experts, and leaders for an afternoon of dynamic conversations about the future of technology in the United States. Speakers include White House National Cyber Director Harry Coker, Deputy National Security Advisor Anne Neuberger, FCC Commissioner Anna Gomez, White House Director of the Office of Public Engagement Stephen Benjamin, National Telecommunications and Information Administration Administrator Alan Davidson, DOE’s Helena Fu, Sen. Marsha Blackburn, (R-Tenn.), Rep. Zoe Lofgren, (D-Calif.) and Siemens USA CEO Barbara Humpton.

Senate Energy Tackles LNG Pause – On Thursday, the Senate Energy Committee also addresses the LNG topic in a hearing on the topic at 10:00 a.m. DOE’s David Turk, Eurogas Sect. Gen. James Watson and CLNG’s Charlie Riedl are witnesses.

Forum Looks at US Nuclear Independence – The Atlantic Council’s Eurasia Center and the Atlantic Council’s Nuclear Energy Policy Initiative gather a panel of experts on Thursday at 10:30 a.m. to discuss the nuclear Industry’s dependence on nuclear fuel produced by the Russian’s Rosatom. Despite the political pressure to reduce dependence on Russian nuclear fuel, Rosatom still supplied approximately 24 percent of the enriched uranium purchased by US nuclear reactors in 2022. Speakers include Ukraine’s Minister of Energy German Galushchenko and NEI’s John Kotek, among others.

BPC to Address Direct Air Capture – The Bipartisan Policy Center holds its "Direct Air Capture Day," on Thursday. The event focuses on the future of DAC deployment in America, including the need to develop robust markets for DAC services, setting up the DAC Hubs for long-term success, and catalyzing public-private synergies through efforts across the federal government. Among the Numerous speakers are DOE’s Kelly Cummins, Rep. John Dulaney, APC’s Jason Grumet and AJW’s Chris Hessler among others.

CSIS Talks Japan, Global Energy Issues – On Thursday at 2:00 p.m., the CSIS Energy Security and Climate Change Program hosts a conversation with Ken Koyama, Chief Economist and Senior Managing Director, The Institute of Energy Economics, Japan (IEEJ). Dr Koyama will present highlights from the IEEJ Outlook 2024. The latest Outlook from IEEJ provides global energy supply and demand projections to 2050. The IEEJ Outlook 2024 includes a focus on the emerging global energy landscape with increasing geopolitical tensions, political divides growing price volatility, and market uncertainty. Dr. Koyama will present his views on the outlook for the global and Japan’s energy situation in 2024.

Climate Justice Series Launches – On Friday at 10:00 a.m., the Ambedkar Initiative at the Institute for Comparative Literature & Society, the India Program at the Center on Global Energy Policy (CGEP) at Columbia University’s School of International and Public Affairs, the SIPA Diversity, Equity, Inclusion, Climate & Engagement (DEICE) Committee, Columbia Climate School, and South Asia Institute hold their next session in a series of discussions examining social and economic justice issues related to climate change and the energy transition in India. The session, “Segregation and Environmental Injustice,” will integrate hard data and social sciences to frame environmental injustice in India as essentially caste injustice. This discussion will include an introduction to Ava DuVernay’s new feature film Origin, adapted from Isabel Wilkerson’s book, Caste, on global systems of hierarchy, oppression, and access to resources.

Kerry Headlines Ocean Forum Countdown – The Wilson Center's Polar Institute, the Wilson Center's Latin America Program, the Wilson Center's Environmental Change and Security Program, the Wilson Center's Global Europe Program, and the Embassy of Greece in Washington D.C. hold a discussion on Friday at 11:00 a.m. with U.S. Special Presidential Envoy for Climate John Kerry on ocean issues in the countdown to the Our Ocean conference in Greece in April.

GW Planet Forward Forum Look at Birds – On Friday at 1:00 p.m., GW’s Planet Forward hosts a virtual salon with the American Bird Conservancy to discuss fellowship opportunities. The event features American Bird Conservancy's Naamal De Silva, who will lead a conversation with our panelists: Ecologist & Author Carl Safina, Katia Pilar Carranza of the University of Nebraska and Harrison Watson of Princeton University and a Planet Forward Alum. Speakers will talk about their experiences with fellowships at different stages of their careers and share how these opportunities have helped shape their paths and ideas. Plus, they'll discuss the creation of fellowship programs and why they believe these programs are vital to protecting biodiversity, addressing climate change, and co-creating a more ethical and inclusive future.

 

IN THE FUTURE

Forum Looks at Weather Forecasting – The Environmental and Energy Study Institute (EESI) holds a briefing on Thursday February 15^th at 3:00 p.m. about the latest innovations in weather forecasting and communication to improve community resilience, awareness, and preparedness. At this briefing, speakers will discuss exciting technologies that can help deliver accurate, timely, and actionable forecasts to those who need it most. Panelists will also underscore the importance of climate communication and emergency outreach, and how weather and disaster information can be delivered to the public in ways that support equitable, accessible, and effective community preparedness.

National Ethanol Conference Set for San Diego – The Renewable Fuels Assn holds its annual National Ethanol Conference in San Diego on February 19^th to 21^st. Political guru Charlie Cook will be the main Luncheon speaker. Gevo expert Paul Bloom, LanzaJet CEO Jimmy Samartzis and API’s Lance West join RFA’s Geoff Cooper as speakers.

SCOTUS to Hear Pollution Case on Feb 21 – The Supreme Court said it will hear arguments over whether to stay EPA’s "good neighbor" rule. The court ordered an hour of arguments in EPA v Ohio over the requests from red states and industry to block the rule, which targets interstate pollution that forms smog and is already effectively blocked in a dozen states due to litigation.

Houston Energy Conference Set – The 6^th Global Energy Forum 2024 will be held on February 21^st and 22^nd at the Petroleum Club of Houston, TX. The Honorable Vitalii Tarasiuk, Consul General of Ukraine will be a featured speaker while Gevo CEO Patrick Gruber will also highlight the latest on the sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) market. The Global Energy Forum brings Members of U.S. Congress from both sides of the aisle together with top energy executives to convene for off-the-record discussions in order to explore in-depth the energy strategies and solutions for a sustainable, clean, reliable and affordable energy future. Policymakers and executives from energy, finance, and technology will engage at the 6th Global Energy Forum 2024 for a dialogue on energy infrastructure, technological innovation, policy and regulation reform needed to respond to the global energy crisis.

Sustainable Energy Factbook Set for Release – The 12^th edition of the Sustainable Energy in America Factbook, produced by BloombergNEF and the Business Council for Sustainable Energy, will be released on February 21^st and available to download for free at bcse.org/factbook. Designed for a broad audience – from energy professionals to public policymakers – the Factbook offers an insightful and in-depth look at economic, market, and investment dynamics and technology trends. Experts from the BCSE, its members and BloombergNEF will hold special briefing on the 2024 Factbook findings.

Casten, Clements Headline ACP Transmission Breakfast – America’s Clean Power holds a forum on February 28^th at the JW Marriott on transmission and grid reliability. The conversation will focus on the key ideas in Congress and the prospect of Congressional action to enhance grid reliability with speakers Rep. Sean Casten and FERC Commissioner Allison Clements. There will also be a panel of State PUC commissioners.

BOEM Klein to Headline ACORE Forum – The 2024 ACORE Policy Forum will be held in Washington, D.C. on February 28^th and 29^th. Liz Klein, Director of the Bureau of Ocean Energy Management (BOEM) will give keynote remarks. Experts will discuss breaking issues such as defending the IRA, increasing clean energy investment, securing the supply chain, and more.

Aspen Climate Event Set for Miami – The Aspen Institute is enlisting global and local policymakers, scientific experts, corporate leaders, inventors and innovators, artists, young leaders, influencers, and engaged members of the public to participate in Aspen Ideas: Climate 2024, a multi-day event on March 11–13^th in Miami.  The event will feature main stages both in and outdoors, breakout and roundtable sessions, tours of local and historic resilience points of interest, as well as fashion, food, art, and music activities. Aspen Ideas: Climate is designed to offer the public a chance to interact, learn, and collaborate with thinkers and do-ers whose actions are critical to addressing our collective future around the realities of a changing climate.

Ex-Im Bank Head to Address SAFE Summit – The SAFE Summit 2024 is set for March 12^th and 13^th in DC. The program will examine how geopolitical power dynamics are shifting and offer a compelling strategy—a systems approach to addressing energy security, climate change, supply chain deficiencies, a dwindling industrial base, and growing geopolitical tension—to reconfigure the foundational pieces that will enable a new global economy to thrive. Reta Jo Lewis, President and Chair of the Board of Directors of the Export-Import Bank of the US is one of the keynotes. International Seabed Authority SecGen Michael Lodge is also expected to discuss deep-sea minerals on a panel with TMC’s Gerard Baron.

CERA Week – CERA Week will be held from March 19^th to 23^rd in Houston. Get ready for the biggest energy show of the year!!!

EPSA Forum Set – On Tuesday March 26^th, the Electric Power Supply Association holds its 2024 Competitive Power Summit.  The event will feature a day of expert panels and featured speakers discussing critical issues facing competitive power and the U.S. electric system.

SEJ Set for Philadelphia – The Society of Environmental Journalists annual meeting will be held on April 3-7, hosted by the University of Pennsylvania. EPA head Michael Regan is expected to speak and the Bracewell reception will be on again Thursday night!!!