Energy Update: Week of February 28th

Energy Update - February 28, 2022

Friends,

We continue to monitor the Russia-Ukraine situation closely as it relates to energy issues.  Already, we have seen crude prices bounce higher and additional sanctions – as well as the always increasing driving demand – may keep those prices high.  One benefit of a higher crude price is that it will likely create even more incentive to quickly boost additional production in spite of the uncertain regulatory environment. To that end, the US oil and natural gas rig count expanded for a 19th consecutive month in February, the longest-ever streak of monthly gains.

AGA’s Karen Harbert, a longtime leader in the international energy conversation, has been sharing her perspective on the impact of the war in Ukraine on energy markets. On Thursday, she said, “With the unfolding chaos abroad and disruption to Europe’s energy markets, natural gas prices for America’s homeowners and business are expected to remain stable. America’s abundant natural gas supply and vast delivery system insulates us from instability across the ocean and unstable leaders with reckless political agendas.” Tomorrow, AGA releases its 2022 Playbook, bringing much needed clarity to the debate about our energy future in the U.S. It will be live at playbook.aga.org

This morning the Supreme Court heard oral arguments in WV v. EPA, which is supported by 18 other Republican-led states arguing that EPA does not have the authority to limit the power sector's carbon emissions.  Also this morning, UN IPCC released the second installment of its latest report which will cover how warming is anticipated to alter daily life, the environment and the planet itself.  Rather than focus on the outrageous claims of devastation that will certainly get the headlines, I suggest you consider focusing on issues where we can have an immediate impact:  building the climate resilient homes, bridges, roads, health systems and food systems that we depend on.

Tomorrow, President Biden delivers his State of the Union address and while we expect mentions of climate as an existential threat, don’t look for much detail beyond the current infrastructure law proclamations and calls for moving the BBB climate provisions.  

On Thursday, the Senate Energy Committee holds an important hearing with FERC commissioners from to review FERC's recent updated guidance on natural gas pipelines.  It is important to note how quickly the Committee turned around this hearing given the FERC vote just last week on the policy to take greater account of environmental justice and climate concerns when approving projects. Stay tuned on this. Then Wednesday, Senate Environment has a hearing Transportation’s implementation of the bipartisan infrastructure package, including testimony from Secretary Pete Buttigieg.

Two other major events for Thursday.  At 10:00 a.m. the Business Council for Sustainable Energy and Bloomberg NEF release their annual 2022 Sustainability FACTBOOK looking back at 2021.  Then at 2:00 p.m., BPC hosts the roll out of EIA 2022 Annual Energy Outlook which provides the latest modeled projections of domestic energy markets through 2050, including cases with different assumptions about macroeconomic growth, world oil prices, and technological progress.

And on Wednesday morning, CSIS hosts a conversation with Rep. John Curtis looking at the opportunities for American leadership in energy and climate

Finally, remember, next week is CERAWeek.  It is the first in-person CERA week in two years and should be a great event.  They have also announced new sessions to address the lasting impacts of military conflict in Ukraine on energy, geopolitics and strategy. Let me know if you will be in Houston.

Best,

Frank Maisano

(202) 828-5864

C. (202) 997-5932

FRANKLY SPOKEN

“The record-shattering interest in the New York Bight lease sale is testament to how bright the American offshore wind outlook is and how confident developers are in the strength of the U.S. offshore wind industry as a whole."

NOIA president Erik Milito following the conclusion of Friday offshore wind lease sale in in the NY Bight.

“This is one of the most important administrative law and separation of powers cases in quite some time. This case will determine who decides the major issues of the day: unelected bureaucrats or Congress, comprised of those elected by the people to serve the people.

Attorney General Patrick Morrisey at today’s SCOTUS arguments on GHG regulations.

ON THE PODCAST

CapCrude Focuses on Methane Leaks – Using satellite data from 2019 and 2020, a team of French and US researchers created the first systematic estimate of large methane leaks that can only be seen from space, and found roughly 1,200 so-called "ultra-emitters" from oil and gas facilities. Those high-emitting events, which are normally undetectable and not accounted for in national greenhouse gas inventories, represented as much as 12% of global methane emissions from the oil and gas industry, according to their study. Antoine Halff, co-founder and chief analyst at Kayrros, a French data analytics company that supplied the data that the study was based on, spoke with Capitol Crude about the prevalence and causes of oil and gas ultra-emitters and the climate benefits as well as business opportunities that could come from greater use of satellites to detect and address these emissions.

FUN OPINIONS

NYT: Ukraine Underscores Energy Security Challenge – In a Saturday opinion piece in the New York Times, former Director of National Intelligence Admiral Dennis Blair and former Joint Chiefs of Staff General Joseph Dunford write Russia’s belligerence against Ukraine is underscoring once again the inextricable link between national security and energy security. Today, Russia is flexing its energy dominance over a dependent Europe. But tomorrow, the danger may come from China and its control over the raw materials that are key to a clean energy future. Dunford and Blair write “the bottom line is that the United States now depends heavily on supply chains from nations that do not share our interests and values. Policymakers must heed this risk or risk being held hostage by these nations.”

FROG BLOG

WSJ: SCOTUS Climate Cleanup – In an editorial yesterday, the Wall Street Journal Ed Board writes that  Monday is cleanup duty at the Supreme Court, as the Justices take up an errant decision by the D.C. Circuit Court of Appeals last year that revived the Obama Clean Power Plan—the same rule they blocked six years ago. At issue in West Virginia v. EPA is whether Congress gave EPA a limitless license to regulate greenhouse gas emissions. States and coal companies aren’t asking the Court to reverse its misconceived Massachusetts v. EPA (2009) precedent that empowered the EPA to regulate CO2 emissions, though that deserves to be revisited. They write: “The Obama EPA divined its regulatory authority from a section of the Clean Air Act that requires states to submit plans setting “standards of performance” for sources of emissions within their borders. The EPA had never before used this section to regulate a gas as ubiquitous as CO2 or force wholesale technological shifts in industries.”

WSJ: Energy, Russia, American Power – Let’s make it an energy double:  In a second energy editorial yesterday, the WSJ also writes “Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is a 3 a.m. wake-up call to President Biden and America’s liberal political class: Cease your war on U.S. energy.”  It adds Europe’s climate obsessions have rendered it vulnerable to Vladimir Putin’s extortion, and the U.S. is in danger of repeating that tragic mistake. “Biden ought to be exploiting America’s homegrown energy advantage. Instead he has spent a year disarming a la Europe. He has suspended leases in Alaska’s Arctic National Wildlife Refuge, halted oil and gas leases on federal land, and killed the Keystone XL pipeline, which would have helped Canada develop its oil sands.” They add the casualties will be hundreds of millions of Americans, forced to pay more for energy that will become less reliable. Higher energy prices will crimp economic growth and standards of living.

FUN FACTS

Energy Polls Well: Citizens for Responsible Energy Solutions (CRES) released the results of its national survey conducted by Public Opinion Strategies, which found Americans across party lines overwhelmingly support “commonsense” policies to reduce emissions that cause climate change—ranging from tax incentives, to reducing regulatory red tape, to holding foreign countries to their climate commitments.

  • 60% of voters continue to support the federal government taking more action to address climate change
  • 37% of Republicans and 66% of independents support the federal government taking more action to address climate change
  • 70% of Voters support accelerating the development and use of clean energy.  
  • More than half of Americans oppose banning natural gas for cooking or heating uses in the construction of new family homes.
  • When voters are informed that a natural gas ban ‘could result in energy shortages and rising prices,’ opposition to the ban surges to 71%.

IN THE NEWS

PCA Responds to DOE RFI on Infrastructure – The portland cement industry is responding to the Department of Energy’s all for information on industrial decarbonization priorities, as well as implementation of the new infrastructure law.  PCA is looking for carbon neutrality across the entire cement-concrete-construction value chain by 2050, in alignment with the Biden-Harris Administration’s goals.

  • The cement industry can’t get there alone. Significant technological advancements are needed to further reduce CO2 emissions across that value chain.
  • This requires significant policy support from the federal government – including DOE – to accelerate the significant technology, funding, and market innovation needed for rapid decarbonization while preserving economic growth and international competitiveness.
  • DOE AMO’s timeline for carbon neutrality is unrealistic in terms of implementation of CCUS, hydrogen, and kiln electrification due to the significant technical, legal and economic challenges.

They also focus on key themes on CCUS and hydrogen that will be essential to driving the industry towards its Roadmap to Carbon Neutraity, which It released late last year. 

Military Experts: Deep Sea Minerals Huge Opportunity – In a new letter to Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin in the pending review of supply chains, 17  Seventeen military experts with substantial leadership roles, including commands in the Pacific and elsewhere - representing almost 600 years of total service – are calling for a full and complete consideration of sea bed nodules as the US plans to shore up its mineral access and improve our independence while simultaneously working to return the processing facilities back to this country.

Euro Gas Challenges Boost US LNG – Surging demand for US liquefied natural gas as Europe moves to reduce its dependence on Russian natural gas has pushed US LNG export capacity to full utilization, which could encourage more final investment decisions for US LNG projects this year. Europe had been stepping up purchases of US LNG even before Russia's Ukraine invasion, and that trend is now expected to accelerate, said S&P Global Platts Analytics analyst Ross Wyeno.

Interior Pauses Leases – The Interior Department placed an indefinite pause on new federal oil and gas drilling leases after a Louisiana judge ruled in favor of Republican-led states in an ongoing legal brawl over how the Biden administration is calculating the social cost of carbon. In a legal filing asking the court to stay the injunction on the Biden administration's use of the metric, the Justice Department said that work on new oil and gas projects on federal lands and waters has been delayed or stopped "so that agencies can assess whether and how they can proceed."

Offshore Wind Sets Records – Speaking of Interior, the Interior Department's offshore wind lease sale for rights off the coasts of New York and New Jersey drew in $4.37 billion in bids, the highest-grossing offshore energy lease sale in U.S. history. BOEM offered six leases across 488,201 acres (197,568 hectares) between New York's Long Island and New Jersey, an area known as the New York Bight.

7-in-10 Voters Support a Gas Tax Holiday – As gas prices continue to ratchet up, the White House and Democratic lawmakers are weighing a suspension of the federal gas tax in a bid to provide drivers with some relief. New Morning Consult/Politico data found that the proposal is a very popular one, with nearly 7 in 10 registered voters saying they would support a temporary break. The proposed federal gas tax suspension, which would last through Jan. 1, 2023, was introduced by six Senate Democrats, four of whom are facing re-election in November.

ON THE SCHEDULE THIS WEEK

House Science Looks at Nature-Based Infrastructure – The House Science Environment Subcommittee holds a hearing tomorrow on advancing the science of nature-based infrastructure.

USEA Looks at Microgrids – The US Energy Assn holds a forum tomorrow at 11:00 a.m. looking at the main challenges of unplanned outages and how the ETAP Microgrid Control Solution is used to achieve a smooth transition to islanding mode. Mohammed Zadeh, Senior VP of Protection & Control at ETAP will speak. 

WRI to Look at Infrastructure Law – The World Resources Institute holds a discussion tomorrow at 11:30 a.m. with national and local leaders from the environmental justice community and clean energy experts about how to ensure the infrastructure investments are implemented in an equitable, effective and timely manner.

ELI to Discuss SCOUTS Climate Case – Following the SCOTUS GHG arguments on Monday, the Environmental Law Institute and expert panelists will discuss this important case tomorrow at Noon. The event will discuss the arguments, the case’s impact on environmental law and administrative law, the long-term effects and much more. 

Forum Looks at Advanced Nuclear – Tomorrow at 2:00 p.m., the Columbia Center on Global Energy Policy continues its Columbia Energy Technology Revolution Forum, a webinar series hosted by former DOE official Paul Dabbar. The discussion will focus on the state of advanced nuclear development and policies that have been helpful to getting the sector to today’s position. It will also discuss what additional policies, both in the U.S. and internationally, are important to continue the momentum for its prospects.  Speakers include NEI’s Maria Korsnick, Westinghouse CTO          and former DOE nuclear official Rita Baranwal, TerraPower’s Chris Levesque and Mike Laufer of Kairos Power

Biden to Deliver State of the Union – In the latest SOTU Speech ever, the President will address a joint Session of Congress tomorrow night at 9:00 p.m.

CSIS to Host Rep. Curtis – The CSIS Energy Security & Climate Change Program holds a conversation with Rep. John Curtis on Wednesday at 8:30 a.m. looking at the opportunities for American leadership in energy and climate. Curtis will discuss the view from Congress on climate change, his efforts founding and leading the Conservative Climate Caucus, and the outlook for U.S. leadership on energy and climate change.

Forum to Look at Plastics – The Woodrow Wilson Center's Environmental Change and Security Program and China Environmental Forum hold a discussion on Wednesday at 9:00 a.m. on plastic waste action in Vietnam. The event will feature a discussion on the pioneering role of women-led NGOs that are advocating for top-down and bottom-up solutions to plastic waste challenges in Vietnam.

Senate Enviro Tackle Infrastructure – The Senate Environment Committee will hold an oversight hearing on Wednesday at 10:00 a.m. to examine implementation of the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act by the Department of Transportation. Secretary Pete Buttigieg is among those testifying.

Forum to Look at Hydrogen, Ammonia as Fuels – Dynamo Hub hosts a virtual event on Wednesday at 10:00 a.m. on powering a clean economy with hydrogen and ammonia.  The panel discussion will address key aspects of developing hydrogen and ammonia projects, debt and equity financing considerations that drive investment in hydrogen and ammonia projects, marketing and contractual considerations, and the existing and future policy landscape in which such projects will be developed.  ClearPath’s Jeremy Harrell and Natalie Houghtalen speak.

DOE’s Shah Joins Forum – ConservAmerica holds a discussion on Wednesday at 11:00 a.m. with DOE’s Loan Program Office Director Jigar Shah. Jigar will provide an update on LPO’s activities and priorities as well as explain how the LPO fits into DOE’s overall efforts to accelerate and commercialize breakthrough technologies. We will also hear from Rob Hanson, the CEO of Monolith, which is the Nebraska company that received the December conditional loan commitment for its clean hydrogen and industrial decarbonization project.

Senate Energy Hosts FERC Commissioners on New Pipeline GHG Rules – The Senate Energy Committee will convene a hearing to review recent actions of the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission relating to permitting construction and operation of interstate natural gas pipelines and other natural gas infrastructure projects.  All five commissioners will testify.

BCSE, BNEF to Release 2022 Sustainable Energy in America Factbook – On Thursday at 10:00 a.m., the Business Council for Sustainable Energy (BCSE) and BloombergNEF (BNEF) will hold an embargoed press briefing on the release of the 10th annual edition of the Sustainable Energy in America Factbook.  Each year, the Factbook provides comprehensive information and analysis on major sustainable energy facts and trends from the previous year. The Factbook includes energy statistics on market growth and contraction, and analysis of trends in the energy efficiency, natural gas, renewable energy and other clean energy segments. Energy industry leaders will talk about how their businesses and the U.S. economy adjusted to changing circumstances and answer questions about the report and its findings. BCSE President Lisa Jacobson and BloombergNEF Head of Americas Ethan Zindler will preview the report and summarize its key findings.

Forum Looks at Barriers to Green Solutions – The American Association for the Advancement of Science’s Center for Scientific Evidence in Public Issues (AAAS EPI Center) and EPA’s Office of Water will hold a panelist conversation on Thursday at 1:00 p.m. featuring representatives from non-governmental organizations (NGOs) and communities working on green infrastructure and nature-based solutions. Panelists will share their experiences accessing and utilizing federal resources for green infrastructure and nature-based solutions. Additionally, panelists will share opportunities, challenges, barriers, and lessons-learned from the design and planning to implementation to operations and maintenance of green infrastructure and nature-based solutions. 

BPC Hosts EIA AEO Release – The U.S. Energy Information Administration will release its 2022 Annual Energy Outlook at a virtual public event hosted by the Bipartisan Policy Center on Thursday at 2:00 p.m. EIA releases its Annual Energy Outlook each year to provide updated projections of U.S. energy markets.  The event will feature a presentation by EIA Acting & Deputy Administrator Stephen Nalley and EIA Assistant Administrator for Energy Analysis Angelina LaRose, followed by a Q&A discussion with a panel of EIA experts. AEO provides modeled projections of domestic energy markets through 2050, including cases with different assumptions about macroeconomic growth, world oil prices, and technological progress.

CSIS Hosts Dutch Expert on Carbon Border Adjustment – On Thursday at 4:00 p.m., the CSIS Energy Security and Climate Change Program hosts a livestream conversation with Mohammed Chahim, Member of European Parliament from the Netherlands and rapporteur on the carbon border adjustment mechanism currently proposed in the European Union. Chahim will discuss how carbon pricing is central to Europe’s climate plans, the legislative report he is preparing on the proposed border adjustment mechanism, the respective U.S. and EU approaches, and the path to advancing climate action globally in the coming years.

Wilson Hosts Oil Politics Book – On Friday at 11:00 a.m., the Wilson Center hosts a book launch of Dr. Jeff Colgan’s Partial Hegemony: Oil Politics and International Order. In his new book, Colgan unpacks the role that oil politics has played in the global order to illustrate that “the” liberal international order is actually made up of subsystems that operate individually and can undergo significant changes without upending international order. 

CBP Officials Discuss Solar Order to Prevent Forced Labor – On Friday at 1:00 p.m., SEIA holds a webinar on to help companies better understand the Withhold release order (WRO) issued by U.S. Customs & Border Protection against products containing silica from Hoshine Silicon.  The event will hear from CBP officials to understand the process and learn about best practices and options for advance rulings.

IN THE FUTURE

CERA Week Set – CERAWeek returns to in-person this year on March 7-10 in Houston. 

NRC holds Conference – The Nuclear Regulatory Commission holds its 34th Annual Regulatory Information Conference on March 8th to 10th.

Forum to Look at Tunisia Climate, Energy issues – Next Monday at 10:00 a.m., GWU’s Elliott School of International Affairs hosts a forum to Look at sustainability, climate and energy challenges in Tunisia. This panel brings together three specialists on Tunisia's unique climate and energy challenges, Achref Chibani, Dr. Hanne Knaepen, and Dr. Adel Ben Youseff, to explore the possibilities and problems facing Tunisia as global average temperatures rise.

USEA Hosts Women Energy Forum – On Tuesday March 8 at 1`0:00 a.m., International Women’s Day, USEA will host a special webinar on women entrepreneurs in energy. Panelists will discuss their professional journeys, the formation of their companies, and the challenges they've overcome along the way.

WRI Looks at IPCC Report – On Thuesday March 8th at 10:30 a.m., the World Resources Institute for an overview of the IPCC report’s findings and a frank discussion about how significant losses and damages from climate change are not only a future risk, but already a present-day reality for vulnerable people in hotspots around the world. The event will feature leading scientists, policymakers, and advocates on how the world must respond to the growing threats from climate change and how critical it is for governments to reach consensus at the COP27 UN climate summit to go beyond talking about funding for loss and damage and instead establish the means to deliver it.

Forum to Look at DERs – AEE, GridLab, National Association of Regulatory Utility Commissioners (NARUC), and NASEO hold a forum on Tuesday March 8th at 1:00 p.m. to discuss a new initiative to support understanding of issues related to connection, operation, and compensation of distributed energy resources within the distribution grid, bulk power system, and wholesale energy markets. NARUC and NASEO will provide information, tools, access to experts, and peer sharing opportunities that assist members with FERC Order 2222 implementation in RTO/ISO regions and State oversight of customer-distribution-transmission coordination outside of RTO/ISO regions.

Forum to Look at Climate Smart Ag – On Wednesday March 9th at 11:00 a.m., the CSIS Global Food Security Program will examine the role of technology in promoting Climate Smart Agriculture and the administration’s recent commitments to support more sustainable agriculture.

Forum to Review Factbook on Hill – The Energy & Environmental Studies Institute will hold a Congressional briefing on Wednesday March 9th at 1:00 p.m. to discuss the 2022 Factbook. Speakers include ACP’s Bill Parsons, Vincent Barnes of the Alliance to Save Energy, SEIA’s Erin Duncan and Mark Lessans of Johnson Controls.

Forum Looks at Net-Zero with BHP – On Wednesday at 4:00 p.m., the Center for Climate and Energy Solutions (C2ES) holds a forum assessing opportunity and disclosing transition risk for a net-zero future. In this webinar, TCFD Secretariat and global mining company BHP will detail approaches to transition risks and opportunities, especially considering policy developments and investor commitments in support of a net-zero, resilient future. BHP’s Fiona Wild speaks.

ASE Holds Policy Summit – On Thursday morning, the Alliance to Save Energy holds its 2022 Policy Summit to hear from top administration, congressional, and industry leaders on where federal energy efficiency policy stands today and the key issues to watch for in the coming months. Speakers include Senate Finance Committee Senior Policy Advisor Bobby Andres, House Energy and Commerce Professional Staff Member Medha Surampudy and California Energy Commissioner Andrew McAllister.

RFF Looks at Carbon Pricing – Resources for the Future (RFF) holds a forum on Thursday March 10th at 10:00 a.m. to review of trends and trajectories in carbon pricing. In this year’s RFF live event, “The Future of Carbon Pricing: Policy in Action,” a panel of experts will examine the state of carbon pricing around the world today and the prospect for future development and implementation of carbon pricing policies. CSIS’s Joseph Majkut and EDF’s Pam Kiely are among the panelists.

Permitting Council head to Speak to WCEE – On Thursday March 10th at 2:00 p.m., Christine Harada, the Executive Director of the Federal Permitting Improvement Steering Council (Permitting Council), will speak with WCEE Board President Hana Vizcarra. Harada has had a remarkable career in the private sector and government in management, finance, and technical roles aimed at developing the technology and systems needed for improved sustainability. She will speak about her career path, her drive for public service, and the many ways you can contribute to a more sustainable world.

McCarthy, Phillips Headline ACORE Forum – ACORE holds its 2022 Policy Forum on March 24th.  The forum is a deep dive on climate policy, regulatory priorities, grid advocacy, and equity in the transition to a renewable energy economy.  Keynoters will include White House National Climate Advisor Gina McCarthy and FERC Commissioner Willie Phillips.

EPSA to Host Competitive Power Summit – The Electric Power Supply Assn will hold its 2022 Competitive Power Summit on Tuesday March 29th at the National Press Club.   The summit features a day of expert panels and featured speakers discussing critical issues facing competitive power today – and what it means for America’s energy future.

SEJ Conference Set for Houston – The Society of Environmental Journalists holds its annual meeting in Houston on March 30th to April 3rd.  Of course Bracewell will hold its annual Thursday reception on March 31st.