Energy Update: Week of December 4th

Friends,

Hello from COP 28 in Dubai.  Wow, what a great place…  The conference was hopping with World leaders making speeches over the weekend (including one by VP Harris which was overidden by her responses to questions about Israel0. Then they headed for the exits (which actually frees up the conference).  The US and others made major methane announcements over the weekend with EPA rolling out its methane rule (minus any details on the “Methane Fee”) and even industry got into the act with the top 50 Oil/gas companies making commitments to reduce methane emission to curb warming by about 0.18⁰C.  Other early commitments from the US include one to triple renewables and nuclear, as well as contributing $300B for climate finance (good luck with that one). It is important to note that China is not making any of these commitments which will surely be a thorn in the side of any discussions.

So many events here at COP, I can forward them to you if you’re interested, I have a running list.  I also have several good COP preview items from podcasts, op-eds and blogs.

Of course, end of the year means the prep for the mad budget battles and EPA rule time.  Budget are good until Jan 15^th but that day comes up fast with the holidays.  As for EPA and other rules, looking for PM 2.5/NAAQS and IRS guidance n hydrogen, SAF and more. On the House’s floor schedule is the Choice in Automobile Retail Sales Act of 2023, which would prohibit the EPA from enacting vehicle-emissions rules and the House and Senate are working through NDAA issues, hoping to wrap that up soon.

On the Hill, there are a couple of good hearings this week including part II of the House Energy Committee hearing series on the US’s energy and climate leadership, tomorrow, 10am. Speaking of climate leaders, the House and Senate send delegations co-led by House Energy Chair Cathy McMorris Rodgers and ranking member Frank Pallone later this week. Other attending includes Republican Reps. John Curtis and Andrew Garbarino and Democratic Reps. Scott Peters and Nanette Barragán, among others.  Other hearings include House Resources on the economic impacts of National Parks tomorrow and Senate Environment looking at habitat and ecosystem funding in the infrastructure law on Wednesday. Finally, tomorrow the House Energy and Commerce Committee holds a markup of 44 pieces of legislation.

Today the Washington Post hosts BLM’s Tracey Stone-Manning while the Large Public Power Council (LPPC) holds a discussion on grid reliability tomorrow featuring Sen. Kevin Cramer and a panel moderated by our friend Renee Eastman.

Finally, get your pools ready as the College Football bowl games are out, including Michigan and Alabama in the National Semifinal Rose Bowl. On the out: undefeated Florida St who was passed over in lieu of Texas and Washington, who meet in the Sugar Bowl. Also, kudos to the JMU Dukes who are going bowling in only their second year as an FBS team.  Of course, the biggest game of the year is Sunday in Gillette stadium when Army and Navy clash in the final game of the regular season.

                                                                                                                                             

FRANKLY SPOKEN   

"My view is that the overall ambition has become disconnected from reality. Firms and governments are doing a lot, and must do more, but setting targets to align with 1.5°C doesn't help them do more because those targets are no longer economically and politically feasible."

Former Council on Foreign Relations expert David Victor, a UC-San Diego climate policy scholar, in an email to Axios on the effort to phaseout of fossil fuels at COP 28.

 

ON THE PODCAST

A COP Preview Visit with Julie Mason – On the Julie Mason Show on Sirius XM’s POTUS 124, I joined Julie to preview COP 28.  We discussed John Kerry role, Biden’s absence, the energy realities facing global negotiations and the success of the IRA in putting the US in the strongest negotiating position that it has ever been in. 

Columbia Energy Exchange Talks COP – This week on the Columbia Energy Exchange podcast, host Bill Loveless talks with David Sandalow and Sagatom Saha about COP28. David is the director of the energy and environment concentration at the School of International and Public Affairs at Columbia University and served in senior positions at the White House and at the U.S. State and Energy departments. Sagatom is a senior associate in the energy transition practice at Macro Advisory Partners as well as an adjunct research scholar at the Center on Global Energy Policy and worked on cleantech competitiveness at the International Trade Administration and as a special adviser to Climate Envoy John Kerry.

 

FUN OPINIONS

Economist COP Veteran Highlights Expectations – Speaking on FP Live, Vijay Vaitheeswaran, a longtime COP attendee and the Economist’s global energy and climate innovation editor, talks about COP28 and what to expect in Dubai. On optimism over funding a potential “loss and damage” fund to mitigate the effects of climate change in the global south, Vaitheeswaran said that while an announcement could be made during COP, it would likely involve a relatively tiny amount of money. He urged delegates to instead find a way to unlock large pools of capital from the private sector. Vaitheeswaran said it was controversial to hold the conference in the United Arab Emirates, one of the world’s biggest oil producers—and that, too, with the CEO of a state oil company running the conference. But there could be a silver lining. “There is a theory that only a muscular oil man can get [the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, and Saudi Arabia] in a room with banks and get a deal. … If he can get that done, then I think history will remember that this was actually a successful COP. But if even that falls apart, then the critics will have been right to be cynical about an oil company being in charge.”

CRES: EVs No Silver Bullet for Consumers – In a Fox News op-ed, CRES President Heather Reams and Rep. Tim Walberg (R-Mich.) outline the Biden Administration's misguided approach to reducing emissions in the transportation sector. The piece highlights the recently released CRES Forum white paper exploring this topic.  Electrification is not the silver bullet for reducing transportation emissions. Without greatly expanding our electric infrastructure and bolstering our domestic critical mineral supplies, an EV-only approach will do more to harm the environment than it will to help it, at the expense of consumer choice.

 

FROG BLOG

Chamber President Clark Outline COP 28 Priorities – In a blog post, US Chamber head Suzanne Clark outline the Chamber’s Priorities as its contingent heads to Dubai for COP 28. Long term success will require both private sector solutions and smart, balanced policies that encourage further investment and foster innovation. COP28 provides a critical opportunity to advance practical, effective solutions. Special Presidential Envoy for Climate John Kerry frequently says to business audiences, “We can’t do this without you.” He’s right. Those who are serious about tackling this global challenge recognize that the private sector must be at the table—including the very energy companies that must simultaneously meet the growing global demand for energy while leading the innovation to help address climate change. 

Siemens: Industry Leading Transition – In an opinion blog in Real Clear Energy, Siemens Energy President of North America Richard Voorberg writes industry is leading the energy transition as we approach COP 28. So much attention has been focused on pledges made by governments, and while they play a pivotal role, the energy industry itself has the knowledge and ability to develop innovative technologies to build an energy system for a net-zero future. We are making the energy transition happen - with or without government action – before, during and after these global meetings.

 

FUN FACTS

Airline Emissions Taking Off:  CO2 from planes fell during the pandemic, but they're marching upwards once again.

 

IN THE NEWS

Fast Co Awards SoCal Gas Hydrogen Project as Next Big Thing” – Fast Company named Southern California Gas' H2 Innovation Experience in Downey to its 3^rd annual Next Big Things in Tech list, honoring technology breakthroughs designed to shape the future of industries — from healthcare and security to artificial intelligence and data. The [H2] Innovation Experience is the 2023 recipient of Fast Company's Next Big Things in Tech Award in the category of Current Events, which showcases "products and technologies that are tackling the world's most pressing problems." The [H2] Innovation Experience is North America's first-ever clean hydrogen powered microgrid and home. This project demonstrates how carbon-free gas made from renewable electricity could be used in pure form or as a blend to fuel energy systems and communities of the future.

Sila Begins the Build-Out of its Moses Lake Plant for 2025 Production of Titan Silicon – Sila, a next-generation battery materials company, began building out its first, auto-scale manufacturing plant, Sila Moses Lake, located in Washington state last week. This construction milestone affirms a 2025 start for the first commercial production of its breakthrough Titan Silicon anode at the plant. Sila is also investing in workforce development through partnerships with local technical schools to ensure a strong talent base to support its manufacturing scale-up. The build-out at Sila’s plant will include automotive-scale production lines and state-of-the-art quality systems. At the start of production, the plant will deliver enough capacity to serve multiple automotive customers, including Mercedes-Benz. Sila’s Titan Silicon anode delivers a 20% energy density increase over the industry’s best performing graphite cells – enabling automakers to deliver unmatched EV performance, dramatically increasing vehicle range and reducing charge times. Beyond its transformative impact on lithium-ion batteries and the automotive industry, the build-out of Sila’s plant will also help to drive U.S. leadership in domestic manufacturing and energy security. Last year the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE)’s Office of Manufacturing and Energy Supply Chains (MESC) selected Sila to receive $100 million in funds to accelerate the build-out of its Moses Lake plant. Sila has successfully executed the contract with MESC, whose investment in Sila will support hundreds of jobs and strengthen the U.S battery supply chain.

BCSE Leads Efficiency Effort – Recognizing the pressing need to enhance energy efficiency to support climate targets, Mission Efficiency is launching a Call to Action on energy efficiency directed at world leaders. Mission Efficiency is calling on nations, stakeholders, and businesses from across industry sectors to join them as they:

• Call on Parties to the Paris Agreement to agree on a global target of more than double the rate of energy efficiency improvement annually.
• Affirm that tripling investment to more than USD 1.5 trillion per year from 2026 to 2030 is required to meet this target, and call on multilateral development banks, central and commercial banks, and investors to ramp up their investment.
• Recognize the private sector is critical to hitting this target and call on private sector partners to commit to investing in and delivering this target across sectors and geographies.

The full text of the Call to Action is available here. The Call to Action will be publicly announced following a private Mission Efficiency roundtable at COP 28 on December 5.

Carbon Emission Grew only 1% in 2022 – The Energy Information Administration (EIA) recently released a report on 2022 energy-related CO₂ emissions, U.S. CO₂ emissions from the consumption of fossil fuels, which totaled 4,939 mmt in 2022, an increase of 1% (34 mmt) from 2021. Numerous factors influenced these emissions changes, such as decreased coal-fired electricity generation, increased demand for heating in buildings, and waning impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic on transportation. The 1% increase in U.S. CO2 emissions in 2022 was much slower than the previous year’s 7% increase. Nevertheless, the United States produced 4% less energy-related CO2 emissions in 2022 than just before the COVID-19 pandemic in 2019. Less use of coal was the largest contribution to U.S. emissions reductions in 2022. Annual U.S. CO2 emissions from coal decreased by 7% in 2022, while coal-fired electricity generation declined by 8%. Changes in electricity generation sources decreased the carbon intensity of electricity by 4% in the United States in 2022, dropping from 392 metric tons of CO2 per gigawatthour (GWh) in 2021 to 376 metric tons of CO2 per GWh in 2022. Coal-fired electricity generation was displaced by other generation sources in the United States, primarily natural gas and renewables. Coal supply shortages, driven by underlying production and consumption dynamics that have affected coal markets since 2017, also reduced coal-fired generation. More natural gas-fired electricity generation increased annual U.S. CO2 emissions from gas burned for the electric power sector by 8% in 2022, offsetting some of the reduction in coal-related emissions and yielding the slight decrease in U.S. electric power sector emissions for the year. Because coal is the most carbon-dense fuel, switching from coal to other generation sources, even other fossil fuels, reduces the carbon intensity of electricity.

Dealers Push Back on EV Rules – A coalition of almost 4,000 auto dealers nationwide sent an open letter to President Biden, calling on him to 'tap the brakes' on his administration's aggressive electric vehicle (EV) push. The coalition — which includes dealers located in all 50 states and who collectively sell every major car brand — is taking particular aim at the Biden administration's tailpipe emissions standards released earlier this year which are the most aggressive federal regulations of their kind ever issued. Under the regulations proposed by EPA, the majority of new vehicle purchases will be electric within a decade.

“These vehicles are ideal for many people, and we believe their appeal will grow over time. The reality, however, is that electric vehicle demand today is not keeping up with the large influx of BEVs [battery electric vehicles] arriving at our dealerships prompted by the current regulations. BEVs are stacking up on our lots. Last year, there was a lot of hope and hype about EVs. Early adopters formed an initial line and were ready to buy these vehicles as soon as we had them to sell. But that enthusiasm has stalled. Today, the supply of unsold BEVs is surging, as they are not selling nearly as fast as they are arriving at our dealerships -- even with deep price cuts, manufacturer incentives, and generous government incentives.”

The Wall Street Journal editorial board said the dealers’ letter is an important political signal that progressive climate coercion isn’t as popular as Democrats think. Americans don’t like to be told what to do or what they must buy. As the dealers put it, “many people just want to make their own choice about what vehicle is right for them.”

Consumers Reports Says EVs have less Reliability – Consumer Reports’ newly released annual car reliability survey says EV owners continue to report far more problems with their vehicles than owners of conventional cars or hybrids, according. The survey reveals that, on average, EVs from the past three model years had 79 percent more problems than conventional cars. Based on owner responses on more than 330,000 vehicles, the survey covers 20 potential problem areas, including engine, transmission, electric motors, leaks, and infotainment systems.

“Most electric cars today are being manufactured by either legacy automakers that are new to EV technology, or by companies like Rivian that are new to making cars,” says Jake Fisher, senior director of auto testing at Consumer Reports. “It’s not surprising that they’re having growing pains and need some time to work out the bugs.”

Fisher says some of the most common problems EV owners report are issues with electric drive motors, charging and EV batteries. (Note: Charging problems reported by members are with the vehicle, not with home or public chargers.)

OPEC to Increase Supply Cuts – OPEC+ agreed to deepen their oil cuts by 1 million barrels per day last week, hoping to prevent a feared supply surplus in 2024. The news comes as OPEC members look to use their collective producers’ power to keep prices between $80 and $100 per barrel. “If those numbers get confirmed it shows OPEC+ wants to keep their hands on the oil wheel,” UBS Group analyst Giovanni Staunovo told the outlet. The oil cartel, he added, is “continuing to apply a proactive stance considering likely seasonally weaker demand at the start of 2024.”

 

ON THE SCHEDULE THIS WEEK

COP 28 Dubai -- COP 28 will take place from November 30^th until December 12^th in Dubai.

BLM Head Joins WaPo – Today at 11:00 a.m., Washington Post Live is holding conversations with Bureau of Land Management Director Tracy Stone-Manning and Connected Conservation Foundation executive director Sophie Maxwell about efforts to protect land and water systems amidst growing climate threats.

Forum Looks at Electricity Geopolitics – The CSIS Energy Security and Climate Change Program will host an online event today at 1:00 p.m. with Amy Myers Jaffe, Director of the Energy, Climate Justice and Sustainability Lab at NYU, Chiara Lo Prete, Associate Professor of Energy Economics at Penn State, and Cy McGeady, Fellow with Energy Security and Climate Change Program at CSIS. The panelists will discuss the emerging geopolitics of electricity trade.

Forum Looks at Community Benefit Plans – Today at 1:00 p.m., the US Energy Assn holds a workshop to enhance your understanding of and quality of Community Benefit Plans (CBP) developed for DOE’s Carbon Management projects. This webinar brings together expertise from federal resources, engagement specialists, and communities to expand understanding of CBP development, implementation, and improvement. The results of this webinar aim to improve the quality of CBPs and advance responsible deployment of carbon management projects. DOE’s Jennifer Wilcox is among the speakers.

Atlantic Council Global Energy Forum Features Kerry – Tomorrow and Thursday, the Atlantic Council holds its 8^th annual Global Energy Forum in Dubai as part of the 2023 United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP28) Special Climate envoy John Kerry is among the speakers. Events will be held in the COP28 Green Zone Connect Conference Center (Tuesday) and the Palm Jumeirah (Thursday).

Forum Focuses on Grid Reliability – Tomorrow at 9:00 a.m., the Large Public Power Council (LPPC) holds a discussion on grid reliability. The event will dive into the latest energy policy developments from Washington, DC, and discuss how our nation can achieve a decarbonized future while also ensuring families and businesses continue to benefit from reliable and affordable power. Keynoter is Sen. Kevin Cramer while panelists include former DOE official and now USEA head Mark Menezes and long-time energy policy staffer Nikki Roy.

ABA Holds Clean Air Conference – Also tomorrow at 9:00 a.m., the American Bar Association holds a virtual Clean Air Act Conference.  EPA’s Environmental Justice and External Civil Rights administrator Lilian Sotolongo Dorka, EPA OAR administrator for mobile sources Alejandra "Ale" Nunez, and Deputy Assistant EPA Administrator for Stationary Sources Tomas Carbonell all speak.

House Energy to Look at Dependence on China, Russia – The House Energy and Commerce Committee holds a hearing tomorrow at 10:00 a.m. on the efforts to build on our clean energy leadership role and help allies reduce dependence on Russia and China for energy production.

House Transpo Looks at Water Resources Issues – The House Transportation and Infrastructure Water Resources and Environment Subcommittee holds a hearing tomorrow wat 10:00 a.m. on status of past provisions and future needs of the Water Resources Development Acts.

House Resources Looks at NPS Program – The House Natural Resources Oversight and Investigations Subcommittee holds a hearing on tomorrow at 10:30 a.m. examining the National Parks air tour management program on gateway economies.

Georgetown Hosts Sustainability Panel – Georgetown University's Earth Commons Institute holds a virtual discussion tomorrow at 11 a.m., on decolonizing sustainability and how it can be a vital path for the planet. The event will explore the environmental dimensions of Palestinian livelihood and existence, and their global resonance such as water apartheid, food sovereignty, Indigenous flora and heirloom seed protection, the impacts of weapons of war, and long-term repercussions on ecological systems.

Forum Looks at Energy Transformation – OurEnergyPolicy is holding luncheon discussion tomorrow at Noon at the National Press Club. The event will look at energy transformation and creating consensus. The event will feature a short video clip from the film series "The Rational Middle" and panelists including Shell’s Gretchen Watkins, NRDC’s Sangina Wright and Sasha Mackler of the Bipartisan Policy Center.

Forum Looks at Winter Reliability – The American Council on Renewable Energy (ACORE) holds a webinar tomorrow at 1:00 p.m. winter reliability and keeping the lights on for civilian and military operations. Panelists will discuss how extreme winter weather could impact grid reliability and national security operations, given the disruptive storms regions have endured in recent years. Panelists will also discuss policies regulators should consider ensuring grid reliability going forward.

Senate Environment Looks at Wildlife Crossing Programs – The Senate Environment Committee holds a hearing on Wednesday at 10:00 a.m. on the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act Investments in Habitat and Ecosystem Restoration, Pollinators, and Wildlife Crossings.

ACORE Holiday Party – Wednesday at the Crimson Whiskey Bar, Washington, DC

Forum Looks Development, Environment – The Center for Global Development holds a discussion tomorrow at 10:00 a.m. looking at the future of development and the environment. The event will discuss environmental externalities and the future of development. They will focus on how governments (and others) can address the environmental costs of widespread and damaging public and private actions—and how new ways of affecting behavior can have climate and development payoffs.

ACCF Hosts Former SEC Chair – On Thursday at 2:00 p.m., the ACCF is hosting a conversation about proxy advisors with Jay Clayton, former Chairman of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.  It is also especially relevant that SEC is considering a final rule on greenhouse gas issues as well.  More fodder for Clayton.

USEA Looks at Hydrogen Storage – The US Energy Association holds a virtual discussion Thursday at 2:00 p.m. looking at underground Hydrogen storage in depleted reservoirs. This webinar, featuring Battelle's Priya Ravi Ganesh, will present a study that establishes a foundational perspective for policy makers and market-makers with a high-level assessment of the current state of understanding of the potential and challenges for repurposing depleted gas reservoirs for hydrogen storage.

USEA Holiday Reception – The USEA also holds its holiday reception on Thursday in the Ronald Reagan Trade Center.

Forum Looks at Climate Behavior, Payoffs – On Thursday in its Future of Development series, the Center for Global Development and the Georgetown University Initiative on Innovation, Development and Evaluation (gui2de) bring together development experts, scholars, and policymakers to address the big questions facing developing countries and help shape the agenda in global development over the next decade.  In this edition, Seema Jayachandran and Rohini Somanathan will join host Ranil Dissanayake to discuss environmental externalities and the future of development. They will focus on how governments (and others) can address the environmental costs of widespread and damaging public and private actions—and how new ways of affecting behavior can have climate and development payoffs.

 

IN THE FUTURE

Forum Highlights Women Leadership – POLITICO will host key leaders in Washington on Tuesday December 12^th to discuss how we can shape policy to improve opportunities for women. Two esteemed corporate powerhouses Duke Energy’s Pepper Natonski and Dori Kreiger, Executive Director of the CTIA Wireless Foundation, will discuss their impact as leaders.

USEA Holds Forum on Lithium – The US Energy Assn will hold a briefing on Tuesday December 12^th at 11:00 a.m. US and North American lithium. The event will provide speakers to discuss new technologies and production of lithium essential for the many new energy applications (batteries for cars, renewable energy used by electric utilities and industrial applications).

DOE’s Satyapel, FCHEA’s Wolak Headline H2 Forum – On Thursday December 14^th at 12:30 p.m., USEA is hosting a briefing with Dr. Sunita Satyapel, Director of DOE’s Hydrogen Fuel Cell Technologies Office brief USEA on their program looking at hydrogen hubs and the expansion of Hydrogen. Dr. Sunyapel will be joined by Frank Wolak of Fuel Cell and Hydrogen Energy Association (FCHEA), an industry association for hydrogen energy and fuel cell technologies. This is the first of a series of 2024 USEA remote one-hour briefings on hydrogen with government and private sector experts.

ACORE Annual Meeting Set – The American Council on Renewable Energy (ACORE) is hosting its Annual Member Meeting on Wednesday, December 14 from 1:00 p.m. to 2:00 p.m. ET. Members will receive an update on ACORE's activities in 2023 and explore our key focus areas in 2024.

State of American Energy Event Set – The American Petroleum Institute holds its annual State of American Energy Forum on Wednesday January 10, 2024 at Capital Turnaround.  API’s Mike Sommers will discuss the state of the industry and the event will also feature panels with experts and Congressional Leaders.

USEA Holds State of Energy – USEA holds its 20^th Annual State of the Energy Industry Forum from Noon to 4:00 p.m. on January 23, 2024 at the National Press Club.  The forum brings together CEOs from Washington’s leading energy trade associations where they outline their policy objectives and priorities for the upcoming year.