Energy Update: Week of April 29
Energy Update - April 30, 2019
Friends,
It is Derby Week with the Annual Run for the Roses set for Saturday. I love this year’s field but I don’t see any real Triple Crown prospects. Post time for the big race is 6:48 pm on Saturday. Seriously, there are 12 that really could win Saturday’s race. That makes it a little harder to pick, but we can help you in the field and betting breakdown in a special section below. I am telling you that I love Omaha Beach especially if the track gets messy on Saturday – which is a possibility given the forecast. I’m also watching Maximum Security, Roadster, By My Standards and Game Winner. If you want a surprise, you might look at Code of Honor, Tax or Haikal. See below for the full details and predictions.
Congress returns this week from Easter/Passover with a full load of action, including movement on the House legislation to force the US back into Paris (House Rules moves it tomorrow). Biggest hearing hits are tomorrow when the House Climate Committee holds a hearing featuring the Chamber’s Christopher Guith and former Energy Secretary Moniz. Senate Energy Committee also looks at US leadership in nuclear energy and the new NELA legislation with former NRC Commissioner (and ClearPath board member) Jeff Merrifield. Also tomorrow afternoon, a House Science panel looks at plastic recycling. On Wednesday, House Energy tackles pipeline safety featuring folks from AGA and others.
As well, the Permitting Council holds is first annual stakeholder engagement forum tomorrow at 9:30 a.m. at the GSA Auditorium. EPA’s Andrew Wheeler and Army Corps head RD James join Permitting Council head Alex Herrgott to discuss the tailored and predictable roadmap for the infrastructure project permitting process.
Off the Hill, ACCF hosts Neil Chatterjee tomorrow and Cato looks at the Jones Act and it impacts on disaster recovery. Also, AGA is holding its operations conference in Nashville and NRECA has rural co-ops in town talking policy and visiting Capitol Hill. Finally, the American Climate Leadership Summit 2019 will be held on Wednesday and Thursday at the Reagan Building and will feature ClearPath’s Jay Faison and many others.
You all know I am a Hillsdale College alum and my fellow alums are spreading around Washington’s political and media elite circles. And I just wanted to share some fun news with you from yesterday: Pat Sajak has been named Chairman of Hillsdale’s Board of Trustees. The Wheel of Fortune legend (and well-known conservative) has long supported the college and will be a great addition. I have a few Sajak stories (his daughter also attended Severn School with Hannah) but I will save those for another time.
Sadly, we also lost two great leaders over the weekend when Sen. Richard Lugar and former Rep/Interior Sect Manuel Luján Jr. who both passed away. Lugar was my first boss on Capitol Hill and I knew him well given the time he gave to staff on Team Lugar runs, while Luján was the picture of a statesman devoting a lifetime to public service over the course of 10 Congressional terms and four years as secretary of the Interior.
Finally, don’t forget to mark your calendar for NEXT MONDAY at 10:00 a.m. when SEIA will issue a Diversity Challenge at the National Press Club where they will release a new Diversity Study — which provides the latest information on career paths for women, people of color and veterans in solar — and the Diversity Best Practices Guide for the Solar Industry, a tool to help solar companies and all companies with the practical implementation of diversity initiatives.
Happy birthday to our friend Scott Segal who hits 55 today. See you on the Hill this week and call with questions, especially if they are about horse racing!!!!
Best,
Frank Maisano
(202) 828-5864
C. (202) 997-5932
THE DERBY PREVIEW
The annual Run for the Roses is back again for another edition of one of horse racing's biggest events. The first Triple Crown race of the year, the Kentucky Derby features a field of 20 horses vying for a purse of $2 million. Here's a quick look at the basic information you need to know ahead of time so you don't miss out on any of the festivities:
The 145th Kentucky Derby is the most exciting two minutes in sports. It looks like we are in for a great and competitive race on Saturday.
Triple Crown, again? – The field this year is deep. Last year, Bob Baffert won his 5th Kentucky Derby with Justify, who went on to give horse racing its second Triple Crown winner in four years after a 37-year drought. Baffert also trained the previous Triple Crown winner, American Pharoah, who won the Kentucky Derby, Preakness, and Belmont in 2015.
With this year’s broad field, no one has really established themselves like Justify did last year. Baffert has three horses in this year's race, with Roadster, Improbable and Game Winner among the top favorites along with Richard Mandella's Omaha Beach and Jason Servis' Maximum Security. But this field is as diverse as I have ever seen and has no real clear favorite or horse that would be considered a Triple Crown threat.
Post time — 6:48 p.m.
Purse — $2 million, with $1.4 to the winner.
Attendance — More than 170,000
Weather — Mostly cloudy, a couple of thunderstorms possible, 77° Precipitation: 35%. The forecast is probably the single most important factor behind a good Kentucky Derby. It affects everything from track conditions, where wet weather can lead to a sloppy afternoon, to the infield, where wet weather can lead to a completely different kind of sloppy afternoon.
Bookmark willitrainonderbyday.com now and be sure to check back as we get closer to Derby Day.
TV — NBC’s coverage features host Mike Tirico; analysts Randy Moss and Jerry Bailey, the Hall of Fame jockey and two-time Kentucky Derby winner; NBCSN host Krista Voda; analysts/handicappers Bob Neumeier and Eddie Olczyk; reporters Donna Brothers, Carolyn Manno, Laffit Pincay, III, and Kenny Rice; and race caller Larry Collmus. New to the team is soccer analyst Rebecca Lowe, who will serve as co-host for the Kentucky Derby as well as NBCSN’s coverage of the Kentucky Oaks on Friday, May 3. Lowe will handle a variety of subjects on the telecasts from Churchill Downs, including an interview with Hall of Fame trainer Bob Baffert, as well as a cooking segment with celebrity chef and longtime horse racing fan Bobby Flay, who will be on-site to create the perfect southern-themed dish for a Kentucky Derby party.
The Distance — The Derby is 1 ¼ miles, or 10 furlongs.
Derby Track Record — Secretariat 1973 (1:59 2/5). The only other horse ever under 2:00 minutes was Monarchos in 2001 at 1:59.97.
The Draw — Post positions will be drawn tomorrow morning at 11:00 a.m. in the Aristides Lounge on the second floor of Churchill Downs’ Clubhouse. The Derby post-position draw is a traditional “pill pull” in which horses’ entry blanks are pulled simultaneously with a numbered pill to determine what stall a horse will break from the starting gate. Preference is given to the top point-earners on the “Road to the Kentucky Derby.” Up to 24 three-year-olds may enter the 1 1/4-mile race and four horses can be listed as “also eligible." Those on the outside would be ranked in order accordingly and could draw into the field should any horse(s) be scratched before scratch time on at 9 a.m. ET Friday.
- Draw Host: Churchill Downs Track Announcer Travis Stone
- Pill Pull: Vice President of Racing Ben Huffman and Assistant Racing Secretary Dan Bork
- Kentucky Horse Racing Commission Chief Steward: Barbara Borden
How to Watch: The Kentucky Derby Post-Position Draw will be streamed live on www.KentuckyDerby.com.
Draw Facts — Since racing began using a starting gate in 1930, the #5 post has the highest win percent at 11.4%. Interestingly, the #10 spot that has the highest in-the-money percentage of runners at 29.6%. Conventional wisdom has it that the inside post positions are not as good for horses these days due to the size of the field and the risk of being squeezed out as the race progresses. Post positions 1, 2 and 3 have been in a drought without a winner since 1986, 1978 and 1998 respectively. The official Kentucky Derby website has a convenient list of complete post position records for every Kentucky Derby over the years.
Churchill Downs — Known as the home of the Kentucky Derby and the Kentucky Oaks, Churchill Downs Racetrack is in Louisville, Kentucky and occupies 147 acres, featuring a one-mile dirt, oval racetrack and a seven furlong turf race course. Thoroughbred racing, the Kentucky Derby, and the Kentucky Oaks have run continuously at Churchill Downs since 1875. It features the Twin Spires — built in 1895 — that sit atop the grandstands, which remain among the most recognizable architectural features in the world.
What to Wear — The Kentucky Derby has been synonymous with style and glamour from the beginning. Today, it’s one of the only places in the world where people still dress to the hilt for a sporting event and where men’s fashion is just as important as women’s. From fantastic hats and colorful spring dresses to dashing bow ties and seersucker suits, Derby’s display of American style and tradition simply doesn’t exist anywhere else.
Men — The modern Derby man possesses an unparalleled color palette. Sun-drenched, tropical colors in bold stripes or busy plaid and bright pastels steal the limelight. Although, if you want a more polished look, a classic navy or pinstripe blazer is always in style. But remember, gentlemen: The secret to looking great is confidence.
Women — The Derby is a chance for every woman to express her inner Southern Belle. The race’s founder, Colonel M. Lewis Clark, Jr., had a vision for an experience that felt both comfortable and luxurious. Today, a myriad of fashions can be found at Derby – from cool sundresses to simple cocktail dresses and even more formal attire. But all these styles have one thing in common: the big Derby hat. The extravagant hats that have become associated with the Derby did not really come around until the 1960s, when social fashion norms loosened up and the presence of television gave women a reason to stand out. The hats became larger, brighter, and more extravagant. Hats at the Kentucky Derby have become even more popular after the royal wedding in 2011, an event that showcased many elaborate hats and fascinators. See a tutorial on Derby hats here.
Other Traditions — The Mint Julep, made with Kentucky bourbon, is the signature drink of the Derby, and Kentucky’s state song “My Old Kentucky Home” is played during the pre-race post parade.
THE FIELD of 20
Here are some horses in the field that I would look out for:
Omaha Beach (Richard Mandella; Mike Smith) Arkansas Derby Winner OB is fast… He is coming off a fast win in the Arkansas Derby in which his performance earned a Beyer Speed Figure of 101 despite a muddy, wet track. That figure is tied for the second best in the 2019 Derby field and one of just three figures of 100 or above and it was in the slop. He is a major contender, especially in a fast or wet/sloppy race and will have Mike Smith on board who took Justify to glory last year. He is expected to be the favorite and six-straight post-time favorites have entered the winners circle.
Roadster (Baffert; Florent Geroux) Santa Anita Derby winner. Roadster closed masterfully down the stretch, running down four horses late and surging past Game Winner by half-a-length. Arguably Baffert's best chance to win a 6th Derby. California has the richest crop of Derby contenders, and Roadster is at the top of the Class. HoF jockey, Baffert favorite and Justify rider Mike Smith has been main rider for both Roadster and Omaha and he is on OB for the Derby. That says something.
Game Winner (Baffert; Joel Rosario) Was top California dog until he managed to take second place in the Santa Anita Derby after being run down by Roadster. He was also the champ out of the 2-year old Breeders’ Cup last fall and may be the most talented horse in the field. But he is 0-for-2 in 2019, even though the 2018 2-year-old champion hasn’t ran poorly in either race. He cannot be counted out.
Tacitus (Bill Mott; Jose Ortiz) Rank: #1, Earnings: $610,000 – Tacitus is a gray homebred of Juddmonte Farms. His running style covets going longer distances based on his pedigree (Tapit, Close Hatches, Seattle Slew, Secretariat). Tacitus' pedigree suggests minimal concerns with the ability to hit the Kentucky Derby distance of 1 1/4 miles and his racing record shows he is on a roll in putting pieces together, improving speed figures each time. With wins in two Derby prep races, the Wood Memorial and Tampa Bay Derby and three straight overall, he demonstrates a lot of upside. Likely to run from the middle or back early.
Maximum Security (Jason Servis; Luis Saez) The winner of the Florida Derby went into his final prep with zero Derby qualifying points. He exited as one of the top contenders after he easily took and held the lead in the most important race of his career. He remains the only undefeated horse in the field. Skeptics say he faced a most favorable race scenario getting out to the early lead, but he has the highest Beyer Speed Figure (101) heading into the Derby and has yet to really be challenged.
Vekoma (George Weaver; Javier Castellano) Vekoma pushed his way into the top group with a decisive win in the Blue Grass Stakes despite his awkward running style. That race featured one of the least glamorous fields of the Derby preps he had the perfect trip. He also has won at Keeneland, Belmont and Aqueduct so tracks don’t seem to matter. Advanced analytics say he’s been one of the fastest horses in his class since last fall, despite his unusual stride. And Javier Castellano hasn’t finished lower than third in North American earnings since 2010.
By My Standards (Bret Calhoun; Gabriel Saez) BMS wasn’t in the inner circle of leaders until surging to victory as a 22-1 underdog in the March 23 Louisiana Derby. His 97 Beyer speed figure he earned suggests his potential is up there with the best in this 3-year-old class. He’s been in the money in all five career starts, and by all accounts he’s been as impressive as any horse during workouts at Churchill over the past couple of weeks. The main factors working against him are his pedigree, stamina and the perceived weakness of the Louisiana fields compared with those in California, Florida and Arkansas.
Plus Que Parfait (Brendan Walsh; Ricardo Santana Jr.) PQP is the first US-based horse to win the UAE Derby winner and has been strong with a Place and Show at Churchill. Unfortunately, none of those who triumphed in the Dubai-based prep and made the journey to Louisville have managed to hit the board, much less win.
Code of Honor (Shug McGaughey; John Velazques) McGaughey doesn’t show up at the Derby unless he thinks he has a solid chance to win, and he hasn’t had a Derby horse since Orb’s victory in 2013. CoH finished 3rd in the Florida Derby but was bumped early and failed to make a concerted charge down the stretch. Most think he may just not have enough speed and Florida echoes that. But he could be dangerous in Louisville if he’s handed a fast early pace to set up his late move.
Improbable (Baffert; Irad Ortiz Jr) While a number of folks are high on Improbable, I question whether he has the stamina to stay with such a fast field at 1-1/4 miles. Both his Derby prelims were at Oaklawn and despite a wide trip throughout, he seized command in the stretch and looked destined for the winner's circle, but Long Range Toddy collared him in the closing strides. He also finished second in a sloppy, fast Arkansas Derby after drawing alongside Omaha Beach on the final turn as the duo separated from the rest of the field, but he could not get past his game opponent and settled for second. I can’t see him pulling this off but he is a good bet for the Super box.
Haikal (Kiaran McLaughlin; Rajiv Maragh) Has two strong wins this year in the Winkfield Stakes (where he came from far off the pace to win, then took the Gotham Stakes closing strong again for a convincing victory. Finally, he again closed hard to take third place in the Wood Memorial. If the pace is slow, watch out for this colt’s hard charge.
War of Will (Mark Casse; Tyler Gaffalione) WoW finished 5th in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf before picking up his first career victory with a five-length runaway on a sloppy main track at Churchill Downs in a 1 1/16-mile maiden special weight race. He started the year strong with big wins at the Lecomte Stakes. He stalked the pace from third early, moved up to take command on the far turn, and surged away to a dominant four-length victory. He followed that race with another runaway victory using his high cruising speed to gain ideal position early from post-position 14 in the Risen Star Stakes. Has good speed and could surprise, but was running strongest earlier this year and really bombed in the Louisiana Derby fading to 9th when he strained a muscle.
Cutting Humor (Todd Pletcher; TBD) CH bombed in the Southwest Stakes at his first race this year, but he was rested for five weeks before returning in New Mexico for the Sunland Park Derby where with John Velazquez aboard, he took the lead in early stretch and was all out to win by a neck. Only one horse won the Derby from the Sunland (Mine that Bird) and did it at 50-1. He is a fast closer and with Pletcher and Velasquez, he could be a sleeper.
Tax (Danny Gargan; Junior Alvarado) In his first race as a 3-year-old, Tax took the Withers Stakes at Aqueduct rallying through an opening on the inside in the stretch to win. He then ran the Wood Memorial Stakes gamely battling Tampa Bay Derby winner Tacitus through deep stretch before setting for second. He is fast and has been over 100 on Beyer in his last three races. He likes to go to the front and so far has been able to hang on making him another potential sleeper.
Win Win Win (Michael Trombetta; Julian Pimentel): Win opened his career with back-to-back victories in November and December at Laurel Park before finishing second there in the Heft Stakes on Dec. 29 in his final race as a 2-year-old. He kicked off this season with a 7+ length romp in Tampa at the Pasco Stakes. He also rallied from off the pace to run third at Tampa Bay Derby and managed second place run in the Blue Grass Stakes, charging hard down the stretch but never really challenging Vekoma. He has never finished out of the money in his six career starts so he should be on you radar if he is at high odds.
Country House (Bill Mott; Flavian Prat) After losing a sprint to WoW in the Risen Star, he managed a 4th place finish in Louisiana and a 3rd place in the Arkansas Derby. He is a young three-year-old though and has shown his green in stretch runs. He is the type of horse that will benefit from a fast pace that roughs up the field.
Long Range Toddy (Steve Asmussen; Jon Court) He showed poise and great acceleration in the stretch when he chased down Improbable in the Rebel Stakes. But he’s divisive because nothing in his previous results suggested he was capable of such an effort and his 6th place in the Arkansas Derby won’t quiet the concerns.
Spinoff (Todd Pletcher; Manny Franco) After a six-month break, Spinoff returned at Tampa Bay Downs on Feb. 22 and looked strong winning by a widening 11 ¾ lengths. That was his first start around two turns, and it immediately made him one of Pletcher’s leading Derby contenders. He followed with a hard-fought runner-up finish by three-quarters of a length in Louisiana Derby. He figures to be near the front early and could have something left in the tank if the early fractions aren’t too fast.
Gray Magician (Peter Miller; Drayden Van Dyke) Based in Santa Anita, the gray colt was then shipped east for the Miracle Wood Stakes, earning a runner-up finish at Laurel Park in Maryland, and then traveled much further east, to Dubai. He didn't let them down, racing without blinkers for the first time and running well in the stretch to finish second.
Master Fencer (Koichi Tsunoda; Julien Leparoux) Master Fencer is a Japanese-bred colt owned by his breeder, Katsumi Yoshizawa and won his first race in his third career start and followed that up with a weight for age victory at Kyoto Racecourse. While they always get Attention, Japanese horses have traditionally struggled to succeed in Louisville.
THE PACE
Pace makes the race, and the Kentucky Derby is no exception. There doesn’t appear to be a lot of early speed in this race, which doesn’t set up well for closers who likes to come from way off the pace. It is impossible to get a read on this until we see the draw Wednesday morning. Post positions affect jockey strategies and will definitely change outlooks. It is likely Gray Magician (who has early speed), Spinoff (who would like to control the pace), Tax and Roadster (both like to run to the front) will likely be the initial pacesetters provided they break well. Again, see below, but weather and track conditions could make this pace fast early among these four. That will definitely help hard chargers but it could completely blow up the field as well.
WET TRACK RUNNERS
We’ll know more with the draw on Wednesday and with track conditions on Saturday, but should it be wet, we do know a few things already. In his final start as a 2-year-old, Plus Que Parfait turned in an effort that should stick in the mind should it be another soggy Derby day. In the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes at Churchill Downs on a sloppy track, Plus Que Parfait engaged in a lively stretch duel only to finish second by a neck, giving PQP experience on a wet track at Churchill Downs, something only two other horses in the field have. As a result, while other horses have been tested on wet tracks and might like the surface at Churchill Downs, it’s a known fact that Plus Que Parfait can handle it. For the others who competed on a wet surface at different tracks, there’s a chance that the composition of the dirt track at Churchill Downs may not be to their liking, even if they handled the mud just fine at Santa Anita or Oaklawn Park.
Aside from PQP, War of Will raced on a sloppy track at Churchill Downs in his first start on dirt and breezed to a five-length victory, making him another to watch on a rainy day. By My Standards was second in his career debut at Churchill Downs, but lost by four lengths. He was also third in a Fair Grounds maiden race on a track rated good, losing by four lengths. Looking at both of those races, it would seem By My Standards neither moves up nor flounders on a wet track.
Only one of the 20 starters owns two victories on sloppy tracks and that distinction belongs to probable favorite Omaha Beach — and he claimed those wins at two different racetracks. He broke his maiden by nine lengths in the slop at Santa Anita and prevailed by a length over Improbable in the Arkansas Derby.
Omaha Beach is the only probable starter with a wet-track victory in a stakes, but there are five other runners with a wet track win to their credit. Four of them are 1-for-1 on “off” going, including Tacitus (maiden race at Aqueduct), Maximum Security (starter race at Gulfstream Park), and Spinoff (maiden race at Gulfstream Park). The Japanese starter, Master Fencer, also posted a win on a “good” track in a maiden race. Finally, Improbable (Arkansas Derby), Win Win Win (Heft Stakes at Laurel Park), and Cutting Humor (maiden race at Belmont Park) and Country House we all on the board on sloppy tracks so something to watch.
Five horses are inexperienced on wet tracks: Vekoma, Roadster, Game Winner, Code of Honor, and Tax.
ODDS
Odds to win 2018 Kentucky Derby (5/4/19) - per Sportsbook.ag as of today (4/29/19):
Omaha Beach 7-2
Roadster 7-2
Improbable 5-1
Maximum Security 6-1
Game Winner 7-1
Tacitus 14-1
By My Standards 14-1
War of Will 16-1
Code of Honor 18-1
Vekoma 20-1
Spinoff 25-1
Win Win Win 25-1
Haikal 50-1
Long Range Toddy 50-1
Cutting Humor 60-1
Tax 60-1
Country House 100-1
Gray Magician 100-1
Master Fencer 100-1
Plus Que Parfait 100-1
Watch the numbers throughout the week and that will tell you where the money is going. Right now, I am dropping cash on Plus at 100-1, Tax at 60-1 and Win WIn Win at 25-1. The first official odds arrive tomorrow at 11:23-11:26 a.m. after the draw when Mike Battaglia delivers the first post draw morning odds.
2018 Kentucky Derby Prediction
I don’t like to pick favorites, but my gut says
Win: Omaha Beach
Trifecta Box: Omaha, Tacitus, Max Security
Superfecta Box: Omaha, Maximum Security, Roadster, Tacitus and/or Game Winner
Sleepers: Vekoma; By My Standards; Win Win Win
Long Shots: Tax or Haikal (50-1), each worth the $2 bet
FRANKLY SPOKEN
“The NERA report provides a comprehensive basis to conclude that trading patterns in the RINs market reflect dysfunction and inadequate market oversight and regulation. Based on my substantial experience at the CFTC and the SEC dealing with regulation of trading and markets, the market reforms proposed by EPA for the RINs market represent a good first step in addressing persistent market flaws based on a reasonable interpretation of the data. By contrast, critiques offered by interested parties holding long RINs positions seem to be predicated on fundamental mischaracterization of the RINs market and its operations.”
Former CFTC/SEC official Susan Ervin weighing in on the EPA’s RIN market reforms.
GOOD DATA
Chamber GEI Energy Tracker Updated – Here is the latest updates to the Global Energy Institute Energy Tracker with President Trump's trio of recent executive actions on energy infrastructure and permit streamlining as the headliner. The Tracker interface below provides a comprehensive, filterable and sortable list of more than 130 energy-related federal actions tracked by date, agency, high-level topic area, and specific issue. The default view displays entries in reverse chronological order of the most recent substantive action by the relevant agency or court.
FUN OPINIONS
Erie Times-News: Harness Lake Erie’s Wind Energy – Lake Erie is home to strong wind resources and could help Pennsylvania increase its access to clean energy via offshore wind projects such as Lake Erie Energy Development Corp.'s Icebreaker Wind project, the Erie Times-News editorial board writes in an editorial last week. "The potential to extract clean energy from a relatively short stretch of shoreline, generate revenues for Erie County and the state, and create new manufacturing opportunities should merit bipartisan support from lawmakers."
IN THE NEWS
CFTC/SEC Expert Weighs in on RIN Market Reforms – Susan Ervin, the former Chief Counsel and Deputy Director of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission’s (CFTC) Division of Trading and Markets from 1988 to 1997, and a Senior Derivatives Adviser and Attorney Fellow at the Securities and Exchange Commission from 2009 to 2011 sent a letter to EPA Administrator Andrew Wheeler addressing itself specifically to matters related to proposed reforms of the RINs market. At Valero’s request, Ervin took a look at the RINs market and the EPA proposal, and she may be the most qualified person yet to do so. Ervin summarizes, reviews and attaches the NERA assessment of the quality of the current RIN market. She finds that: “NERA’s analysis of D6 RIN market quality and dynamics identified multiple indicia of an inefficient, fragmented market, susceptible to manipulation and other breaches of market integrity, and creating undue cost to market participants. These circumstances strongly support the need for market reforms.” Ervin reviews in detail the American Petroleum Institute response to NERA and its general opposition to market reforms, and finds them wanting. She notes that API has mischaracterized the testimony of CFTC Chair Christopher Giancarlo with respect to evidence of manipulation. She further notes that the API report misunderstands the NERA methodology and findings, finding the latter to be “the most comprehensive and granular analysis to date.” Ervin also finds that API has misstated how position limits operate, the ample precedent for them and what effect they have on a market.
Tariffs Still Hitting Solar Jobs – A new report from the Energy Futures Initiative found U.S. solar manufacturing jobs fell 9.5%, largely caused by the Trump administration's imposition of a 30% tariff on imported products, which was intended to give jobs a boost. The group found manufacturing jobs fell to 46,539 in 2018, from 51,410 a year earlier, said David Foster of EFI, which is headed by former Energy Secretary Ernest Moniz. The figures come from EFI's analysis of data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics and EFI and the National Association of State Energy Officials' 2019 energy and employment report. Manufacturers have been wary to invest in new facilities amid a global oversupply of solar panels, driven in part by reduced demand from China.
RFS Waivers Spur Another Frivolous Biofuels Lawsuit – The Advanced Biofuels Association last week filed another frivolous lawsuit trying to prevent EPA from granting any further waivers under the Renewable Fuel Standard. The price of compliance credits has collapsed, raising questions in the biofuels industry about why economic hardship waivers are required. The answer is simple…the program is broken and has never worked for small refineries. In reality, no domestic biofuel producer has seen any harm due to small refiner waivers. EIA data and ag-friendly economists show there has been no backtracking on domestic ethanol consumption and exports set yet another record last year. Those same ag-friendly economists and EIA data also show there is NO backtracking in consumption of domestically produced biodiesel, the production and consumption of which continues to increase, but still falls short of the domestically mandated numbers. Now, the majority of ABFA members are foreign biodiesel producers. Consumption of their product has decreased, but as a University of Illinois economist highlighted, this has more to do with the Administration's tariffs on our largest foreign sources of biodiesel rather than anything to do with the RFS. And the fact that domestic biodiesel production and consumption is gaining at the expense of ABFA members is due solely to the tariffs and exactly the purpose of the RFS. It was never meant to be a foreign biodiesel mandate, which is what it has become.
ON THE SCHEDULE THIS WEEK
EPA E15, RIN Market Reforms Comments Due – TODAY
AHAM Meeting Set – The Association of Home Appliance Manufacturers (AHAM) holds its 2019 Annual Meeting today and tomorrow at the Ritz-Carlton in Washington DC. Speakers will include DOE’s Dan Simmons former CBO head Doug Holtz-Eakin, Matt Eggers of the Chamber, NAM’s Linda Dempsey and many others.
Forum Look at Global Energy Challenges – The Milken Institute holds its 22nd Global Policy Conference today and tomorrow to bring together the leading minds in business, technology, government, media, philanthropy, health care, and entertainment to deliver novel, collaborative responses to these great questions of our time. Speakers include a crazy good list of celebs, deep thinkers and policy experts. See the List here.
Forum to Look at Building Design – The Environmental and Energy Study Institute (EESI) holds a briefing today at 2:00 p.m. in 485 Russell to explore how the quality of buildings contributes to the national economy and promotes healthier environments, and to learn how Congress can support such benefits. Because Americans spend over 90 percent of their time indoors, the design, construction, and operation of buildings greatly influence the health, productivity, and safety of their occupants. Speakers for this forum are William Fisk of the Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Executive Director of the Alliance for National and Community Resilience Ryan Colker and lighting designer Randy Burkett.
AGA Operations Biennial Exhibition Kicks off in Nashville – The 2019 AGA Operations Conference & Biennial Exhibition begins tomorrow in Nashville, TN and runs through Friday. The annual conference is the natural gas industry’s premier gathering of utility and transmission company operations management across the U.S. and the world. An exhibition is held every two years in conjunction with the conference. The Operations Conference is AGA’s largest forum, with more than 1,800 natural gas utility, operations management professionals sharing technical knowledge, ideas and practices to promote the safe, reliable, and cost-effective delivery of natural gas to the end-user. The exhibition celebrates the innovation, ingenuity and persistence of our service provider and manufacturing community.
CFR Hosts Conversation with Markey on GND – The Council on Foreign Relations hosts Senator Edward J. Markey to discuss the Green New Deal, a congressional resolution aimed at addressing the issue of climate change tomorrow morning at 8:00 a.m.
Gov. Cooper Headlines NC Energy Conference – The NC Clean Energy Technology Center hosts the 2019 State Energy Conference of North Carolina tomorrow and Wednesday at NC State. The State Energy Conference provides actionable insight into the business of energy, connecting technical innovation, diverse resources and industry opportunity to help drive North Carolina's regional energy economy forward with national impact. Speakers will include Gov. Roy Cooper, several speakers from Duke Power and our friends Kristi Swartz from E&E News.
FERC Holds NatGas Enviro Review Seminar – FERC is hosting a three day interactive seminar starting tomorrow on how to successfully navigate the FERC environmental review process and to prepare an Environmental Report, a brief introduction to pipeline construction for industry newcomers, a discussion of pre-construction preparation considerations, and a review of baseline mitigation measures for pipeline construction and restoration.
Wheeler, James, Herrgott Talk FAST-41 – The Permitting Council holds is first annual stakeholder engagement forum tomorrow at 9:30 a.m. at the GSA Auditorium. EPA’s Andrew Wheeler, Army Corps head RD James and Ad Council on Historic Preservation Executive John Fowler join Permitting Council head Alex Herrgott to discuss the tailored and predictable roadmap for the infrastructure project permitting process.
House Climate Hearing to Look at Zero Emissions – The House Climate Crisis Committee holds a hearing tomorrow at 10:00 a.m. to look at ways to reach net-zero carbon emissions by 2050. Witnesses include Diana Liverman, a lead Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change report author; Hal Harvey, CEO of Energy Innovation; David Foster, formerly a senior adviser to Energy Secretary Ernest Moniz; and Christopher Guith, acting president of the Chamber of Commerce's Global Energy Institute.
Senate Energy Look at Nuke Legislation – The Senate Energy and Natural Resources Committee holds a hearing tomorrow at 10:00 a.m. on U.S. leadership in nuclear energy and to receive testimony on NELA. Witnesses include former NRC Commissioner ClearPath board member Jeff Merrifield, Idaho National Laboratory Director Mark Peters, Ashley Finan of the Nuclear Innovation Alliance, NEI’s Maria Korsnick and Mark McManus, who serves as General President of the United Association of Journeymen and Apprentices of the Plumbing and Pipe Fitting Industry of the United States and Canada.
House Resources Looks at Interior Re-Org – The House Natural Resources Oversight and Investigations Subcommittee holds a hearing tomorrow at 10:00 a.m. looking at the implementation and impacts of the reorganization of the Department of the Interior. Interior Budget chief Scott Cameron, former Clinton Interior official Jamie Rappaport Clark (Defenders of Wildlife CEO) and former director of BOEM/BSEE Michael Bromwich will all speak.
House Resources to Look at Clean Energy – The House Resources Energy and Mineral Resources Subcommittee holds a hearing tomorrow at 10:00 a.m. on public lands and our clean energy future.
House Science to Host NOAA on Budget – The House Science Environment Subcommittee holds a hearing tomorrow at 10:00 a.m. on the NOAA FY2020 budget request featuring Dr. Neil Jacobs.
POSTPONED – USEA to Host Microgrid Discussion – The US Energy Assn’s presentation tomorrow is POSTPONED to a later date. It will highlight the ongoing DOE microgrid activities for enhanced grid reliability and resilience. The speaker is Dan Ton, Program Manager at DOE’s Office of Electricity Advanced Grid Research and Development Division. He is responsible for developing and implementing R&D activities in microgrids, resilient electric distribution systems, and international smart grid collaboration.
Wilson forum to Look at China GHGs – The Wilson Center’s China Environmental Forum (CEF) holds a forum tomorrow at 9:30 a.m. where speakers will provide stories of China’s energy engagement in Southeast Asia, highlighting the opportunities for China to play a bigger role in supporting the region’s clean energy transition. Courtney Weatherby (Stimson Center) will review China’s role as an energy investor in Southeast Asia and explore the growing interest for solar and other renewables to meet region’s future energy demand. She also will share stories of new clean energy targets and policy shifts in Vietnam, Thailand and Cambodia. Sam Geall (chinadialogue) will discuss the Chinese government’s ambitious plan to add over 10 GW capacity of solar photovoltaic power to benefit over 2 million rural households across China by 2020. He will talk about how these solar initiatives in China could inform the government’s efforts to increase clean energy investments in the Belt and Road Initiative. Darrin Magee (Hobart and William Smith Colleges) will delve into how an interconnected smart grid linking solar power plants in Cambodia with hydropower plants in China’s Yunnan Province could balance energy supplies and reduce the need for more hydropower in the region.
SEIA Hosts Federal, State Policy Meeting on Hill – The Solar Energy Industries Association (SEIA) and the bipartisan Congressional Solar Caucus will hold a forum tomorrow at 10:30 a.m. in 303 Cannon that will be an overview of the solar industry, key opportunities for achieving SEIA’s goal that solar energy comprises at least 20% of total U.S. energy generation by 2030, and the most important opportunities solar industry faces at the state and federal levels. Reps Raja Krishnamoorthi (D-IL) and Ralph Norman (R-SC) will speak.
ACCF to Host Chatterjee – The American Council for Capital Formation and the ACCF Center for Policy
Research hosts a special event tomorrow at noon in the Chinese Ballroom of the Mayflower Hotel discussing the 2019 FERC Agenda that features a conversation with Chairman Neil Chatterjee.
Webinar Looks at Financial Impacts of Disasters – The Urban Institute holds a presentation tomorrow at noon featuring new research about natural disasters and residents’ financial health. This webinar will share new Urban Institute estimates of the impact of recent natural disasters on residents’ financial outcomes including credit scores, delinquent debt, bankruptcies, credit card debt, foreclosures, and auto debt. The discussion will explore how effects differ by a disaster’s severity and size and demographic and economic characteristics of residents and communities. This webinar will also highlight implications for government leaders (local, state, federal), philanthropy, nonprofit leaders focused on financial health, and regulators, so they can advance strategies that help build residents’ resilience before a disaster hits and help them better cope afterward.
Cato to Look at Jones Act – The Cato Institute holds a discussion tomorrow at Noon on assessing the Jones Act's impact on Puerto Rico. At this event, panelists will assess the law’s impact on Puerto Rico, highlighting the findings of two recent reports that evaluate the law’s economic cost, and will discuss the implications of Puerto Rico’s recent application for a temporary Jones Act waiver to allow liquefied natural gas to be imported aboard foreign-flagged ships. The event features Puerto Rico Secretary of State Luis Rivera Marín, JHU’s Anne Krueger and experts Vicente Feliciano and John Dunham.
House Science Panel to Look at Recycling – The House Science Research and Technology Subcommittee holds a hearing tomorrow at 2:00 p.m. on emerging technologies in plastics recycling. Witnesses will include Plymouth, Michigan City Manager Paul Sincock, Troy University’s Govind Menon, NREL’s Gregg Beckham and Dow’s Recycling Commercial Director Tim Boven.
House Oversight to Look at Public Health, Climate – The House Oversight Committee is hold a hearing tomorrow at 2:00 p.m. on the public health impacts of climate change. Why? Who knows… Witnesses will be Harvard’s Aaron Bernstein, UT-Austin’s Karen DeSalvo, Pitt’s Bernard Goldstein, FIU’s Cheryl Holder and Caleb Rossiter of the C02 Coalition.
Group to Look at Asian Carp – The Northeast-Midwest Institute and the Asian Carp Regional Coordination Committee are hosting a briefing tomorrow to discuss Asian Carp mitigation in the Great Lakes region. EPA’s Bill Bolen is among the speakers.
Forum to Look at Business Impacts of Flooding – Pew Charitable Trusts and the U.S. Chamber of Commerce hold a briefing tomorrow at 3:30 p.m. in 2261 Rayburn on the business case for flood-ready infrastructure. Since 2000, flood disasters have caused over $800 billion in losses stemming from business interruptions and damage to infrastructure, such as roads, hospitals, and schools. Research indicates that following a disaster, roughly 40 to 60 percent of small businesses never reopen their doors, and 90 percent fail within a year unless they can resume operations within 5 days. This briefing will bring together local officials and organizations representing small and large businesses. Discussions will focus on how Congress and the Administration can make resilient investments and forward-thinking policy decisions that ensure communities and businesses are better able to thrive in the face of increasing flood-disasters.
Faison, Others Discussion American Climate Leadership – The American Climate Leadership Summit 2019 will be held on Wednesday and Thursday at the Reagan Building and will feature discussions on climate science and strategies for community engagement and policy solutions. Sen Whitehouse, former EPA heads Lisa Jackson and Gina McCarthy, ClearPath founder Jay Faison, AWEA’s Tom Kiernan and former Rep Phil Sharp are among the speakers.
Biodiesel Rally On Tax Credit – The National Biodiesel Board holds a rally Wednesday morning for the biodiesel tax incentive extension at the U.S. Capitol East Front. Be prepared to hear a lot of incorrect bluster about small refinery exemptions.
House Energy Panels Tackle Pipelines, Waste – The House Energy & Commerce Committee holds two hearings on Wednesday. The first hearing, set for will be held by the Energy Subcommittee on reauthorization of the Pipeline Safety Act. Half an hour later, the Oversight and Investigations Subcommittee will hold a hearing to examine the Energy Department's cleanup of nuclear and hazardous waste sites.
House Energy Panel Looks at Enviro Liability – The House Energy and Commerce Oversight and Investigations Subcommittee holds a hearing Wednesday at 10:00 a.m. on DOE environmental liability of DOE cleanups.
Forum to Look at Electric Vehicles, Infrastructure – The Electric Drive Transportation Association holds an event on Wednesday at 1:30 p.m. at the National Press Club looking at building e-mobility into 21st Century infrastructure. A keynote speaker will share an integrated view of electric transportation in the 21st century and two moderated panels will include representatives of the entire value chain of e-mobility.
Senate Approps Panel Looks at NRC – The Senate Appropriations Energy-Water Development Subcommittee holds a hearing in 138 Dirksen at 2:30 p.m. on the proposed budget estimates and justification for the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission. Commissioner will testify.
Midwest Solar Expo Set – The 2019 Midwest Solar Expo starts Wednesday in the heart of Downtown Minneapolis. The event brings together almost 500 solar, clean energy and utility executives for two action-packed days of networking, deal-making, interactive sessions, all-star speakers, exhibitions and parties. This year’s conference will cover the latest developments in the Midwest’s residential, commercial and utility solar markets, including topics ranging from project finance, community solar, and policy to emerging opportunities in energy storage, electric vehicle charging infrastructure, fuel cells and beyond.
House Resources Looking at 3 Years of Puerto Rico Lessons – On Thursday at 10:00 a.m., the House Committee on Natural Resources will hold an oversight hearing on the status of the Puerto Rico Oversight, Management, and Economic Stability Act (PROMESA) looking at lessons learned three years later. PR Gov Ricardo Rosselló and others testify.
Senate Energy to Host Interior Nominees – The Senate Energy and Natural Resources Committee holds a nomination hearing on Thursday at 10:00 a.m. to consider the nominations of Daniel Jorjani to be Solicitor of the Department of the Interior and Mark Lee Greenblatt to be Inspector General, Department of the Interior.
WCEE to Look at CyberSecurity – The Women’s Council on Energy and the Environment (WCEE) holds a Lunch & Learn Thursday at noon on cybersecurity, which is becoming an increasing concern in every facet of our lives. At this interactive lunch and learn presentation, Deloitte’s Shari Gribbin will focus on critical aspects of the energy industry cybersecurity landscape including the regulatory and legal outlook, governance and compliance trends within utilities, and the intersection with privacy requirements for customer information, CEII and other data.
Moniz to Give Carey Lecture – On Thursday at 6:00 p.m., AAAS hosts the 2019 William D. Carey Lecture. This year, the lecture will be presented by Dr. Ernest J. Moniz, the president and chief executive officer of the Energy Futures Initiative and former Energy Secretary.
NYU Forum to Look at Climate Regulation – On Thursday at 6:30 p.m., NYU Law’s Guarini Center hosts a group of distinguished energy industry experts for a discussion on climate change regulation. Panelists will provide their thoughts on the pros and cons of a number of proposed or implemented policies to reduce greenhouse gas emissions including federal carbon taxes, carbon adders to be administered by independent system operators, renewable energy mandates and more.
House Science Looks at Nuclear – The House Science, Space and Technology Energy Subcommittee holds a field hearing in Shippingport, PA at 10:00 a.m. on the domestic nuclear industry's role in local economies, emissions and national security. Witnesses include former DOE Assistant Secretary for Nuclear Energy and NRC Commissioner Pete Lyons, retired Navy Admiral William Fallon, EPRI’s Tina Taylor and Jay Apt of the Carnegie Mellon Electricity Industry Center.
JHU Hosts Climate Seminar – On Friday, the Johns Hopkins University Advanced Academic Programs and the National Academy of Sciences will host a one-day symposium on approaches to climate change. In 1991, the U.S. Office of Technology Assessment (now defunct) issued a path-breaking report at the request of Congress, Changing by Degrees: Steps to Reduce Greenhouse Gases. Twenty-eight years later, the effects of climate change are ever more evident—and the need to combat them more urgent. We honor the 1991 report by adopting its title, and we will build on it to discuss climate change in today’s multi-faceted environment. The symposium will address the current and future impacts of climate change and examine how leaders in diverse fields, from environmental science and public policy to finance and communications, can influence our current climate trajectory.
Forum to Look at Air Issue Successes – Life:Powered and States Trust host a Congressional staff briefing at Noon in 188 Russell to learn the data behind America’s air quality successes. Contrary to the popular narrative that our modern economy is leading us to environmental disaster, we are proving that abundant energy, prosperity, and lasting environmental quality go hand in hand. Featured panelists include Kathleen Hartnett White.
Former UN Climate Chief Headlines Forum – The Center for Global Development holds a discussion Friday at 2:30 p.m. on fiscal policy tools that can protect the planet. A new IMF paper provides country-level guidance on the role, design and economic impact of fiscal policies for implementing these strategies, using a unique and transparent tool laying out the trade-offs among policy options. The IMF will also be releasing updated estimates of energy subsidies at the global and national level. Christine Lagarde, the IMF’s Managing Director and former UN Climate chief, will be joined by Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala, former Minister of Finance of Nigeria and Andrew Steer, President and CEO of WRI, in a session moderated by CGD President, Masood Ahmed to discuss fiscal policy options to achieve the Paris commitments.
IN THE FUTURE
Offshore Tech Conference Hits 50 – The Offshore Technology Conference hits its 50th anniversary on May 6th through 9th in Houston. The event aims at advancing scientific and technical knowledge for offshore resources and environmental matters. Celebrating 50 years since 1969, OTC’s flagship conference is held annually at NRG Park (formerly Reliant Park). Speakers will include Equinor COO Jannicke Nilsson, Total President Arnaud Breuillac, Chamber Global Energy Institute head Christopher Guith, Murphy Oil CEO Roger Jenkins, Baker Hughes Oilfield Services head Maria Claudia Borras a