Energy Update: Week of April 1st

Friends,

I was going to start with an April Fools hook today, but I already did that about 10 years ago and it caused a ruckus, so I’m passing.  I hope everyone enjoyed the Easter Weekend.  We did some spring cleaning, some spring field hockey and a lot of NCAA hoops and ice watching.  And this morning we are watching the 144^th White House Easter Egg Roll.

Starting with the Men’s Hoops, the final four is set: UConn, Alabama, Purdue and NC State. Defending Champ UConn looks very tough, leading by 30 points in every one of their games; big man Zach Edey looks hard to stop (‘Boiler Up’ Mike Graff and Robin Ridgway); and I told you two weeks ago that NC State was a sleeper!  On the ice, Boston U, Michigan, Boston College and Denver are headed to Minnesota for the Frozen Four. Finally, half of the women’s bracket is set with South Carolina and NC State (upsetting Texas).  Two spots still up for grabs for Cleveland and tonight is the big grudge match when Iowa meets LSU (7pm on ESPN), with UConn taking on #1 USC in the other game.

Congressional recess continues this week so little action in DC. The major event this week is the Society of Environmental Journalists annual meeting in Philadelphia.  The action starts Wednesday but Thursday night is the Bracewell Reception! EPA Administrator Michael Regan speaks on Friday afternoon. 

Two other good events tomorrow: 1) the Energy Innovation Reform Project and the Center for the National Interest are holding a special joint discussion of U.S. nuclear energy leadership and exports on tomorrow at 9:00 a.m. with Assistant Secretary of Energy Dr. Kathryn Huff; 2) RFF holds an event tomorrow at 3:00 p.m. and releases its 2024 Global Energy Outlook—RFF’s annual report that synthesizes global energy market projections and analysis from leading energy organizations and corporations.

Finally, great news here for the Bracewell Policy Resolution Group. Bloomberg Government (BGov) has recognized as both a “Standout” and “High-Performing” lobbying firm in its Top-Performing Lobbying Firms of 2023.  Have a great week and call with questions.

Best,

Frank Maisano

(202) 828-5864

C. (202) 997-5932                                                                                                                              

FRANKLY SPOKEN

"If this all seems like tremendous news for America, that's because it is. And yet, you probably haven't heard anything about it. It's just too politically inconvenient a feat for either party to acknowledge (let alone celebrate)."

Geopolitical analyst Ian Bremmer in a blog post last week pointing out the "greatest energy boom you've never heard of" has transformed America into "the world's top energy superpower."

EPA’s new emissions standards for heavy-duty trucks will effectively require that electric semi-trucks make up an increasing share of manufacturer sales from 2027 through 2032, similar to its recent rule for passenger cars. The difference is that the truck mandate is even more costly and fanciful.

Wall Street Journal Editorial Board yesterday commenting on the Good Friday release of the new EPA Heavy Truck Rule.

ON THE PODCAST

Snake River Dam Deal Could Undermine Power Supply in NW– NRECA’s Along These Lines podcast this week looks at a long-simmering dispute over the Lower Snake River dams with a backroom deal between the Biden administration and plaintiffs in a lawsuit against the Bonneville Power Administration and other agencies that manage the dams. The agreement has raised fears about the possibility of breaching the dams and compromising the availability of reliable, carbon-free electricity in the region. NRECA's Louis Finkel discusses the issues with Fall River Rural Electric Cooperative's Bryan Case.

FUN OPINIONS

Powell: Conservatives are Leading On Climate – In an op-ed in The Hill, ClearPath’s Rich Powell praises Conservatives’ decade of clean energy and climate leadership.  There is no shortage of conservative leaders in this space today, and they all have one thing in common: supporting American-driven innovation that allows us to lead the world in emissions reductions while also providing reliable, affordable, clean energy here at home and around the world.

Reams: Home Grown Energy Works – RealClearEnergy  an op-ed by CRES President Heather Reams highlighting America's all-of-the-above energy portfolio and how homegrown energy results in both lower energy prices and reduced global emissions. Republican lawmakers have been vocal about the need for permitting reform, and while there are ongoing conversations with their Democrat counterparts, the looming November election has seemingly put these discussions on hold. House Any durable policy must have buy-in from both political sides, and permitting for energy projects fits the bill.

FROG BLOG

US Needs to Start Pushing Back on China – In a column for CSIS, former State Department official Frank Fannon writes on the administration’s permissive approach on China regarding IRA. Australia and South Korea are confused with the administration’s interpretation that allows Chinese content while the law prohibits it. The administration’s supply chain report found that overreliance on China for critical minerals and materials posed national and economic security threats.

FUN FACTS

Why Slow LNG When It is on a Roll: The US become the world’s largest LNG exporter in 2023, yet the pause will likely undercut that.  

IN THE NEWS

EPA Rolls out Truck Rule – On Friday, EPA rolled out its latest heavy-duty truck rule. The new rule for model years 2027-2032 allows manufacturers to use a variety of technologies to reduce emissions in their fleets, including electric vehicles, hybrids and hydrogen fuel cells. Under the 1,155 page final rule, roughly 30% of heavy-heavy-duty vocational trucks would need to be zero-emission by 2032 and 40% of regional day cabs. The EPA Phase 3 rule does not specify any particular emissions solution in its rules, maintaining its promise of a "technology-neutral" approach. However, it will be difficult to hit emissions benchmarks without some integration of either hybrid, battery-electric, or hydrogen-electric trucks. Over 98% of the heavy-duty vehicles sold in 2023 were diesel-powered, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration. The American Trucking Associations estimates that 11.46 billion tons of freight were transported by trucks in 2022, representing more than 72% of total domestic tonnage shipped. A recent American Transportation Research Institute study found that full electrification of the U.S. vehicle fleet would require the addition of generation and transmission capacity equal to more than 40% of the current electricity demand.

Refiners Opposes New Rule – API President and CEO Mike Sommers and AFPM President and CEO Chet Thompson said EPA’s rule is yet another example of the Biden administration’s whole-of-government effort to eliminate choices for American consumers, businesses, and industries.

“There is significant uncertainty regarding the technological and infrastructure capability to comply with this rule, which may threaten the speed and cost of goods moving throughout the country. “By moving forward with an extreme reliance on so-called heavy-duty zero emission vehicles, this rule disincentivizes the development of other fuel-based technologies—including American-made renewable diesel—that are working in today’s heavy-duty fleet to reduce emissions more quickly and at a lower cost. This misguided rule should be overturned by Congress, but short of that, our organizations are prepared to explore challenges in court.”

SAFE Says Rule can Limit Vulnerability to Oil Price Volatility – SAFE has promoted robust fuel efficiency rules as part of a comprehensive energy security strategy for 20 years and supported the inclusion of heavy-duty vehicle standards in 2007’s Energy Independence and Security Act. Leveraging advances in vehicle technology to increase supply chain resilience, create domestic manufacturing jobs, and break oil’s monopoly on our transportation system should be a nonpartisan issue. In response to the finalized phase three heavy-duty vehicle emissions rule, General Charles F. Wald, U.S. Air Force (Ret.), member of SAFE’s Energy Security Leadership Council and Former Deputy Commander of U.S. European Command, said the new emissions rule for heavy-duty vehicles, combined with last week’s announcement of new emission rules for light- and medium-duty vehicles, will underpin the potential shift away from oil dependence for America’s transportation system.

“We applaud these rules in the context of our continued vulnerability to oil price volatility and its impact on our strategic interests. As U.S. defense officials have urged Ukraine against striking Russian oil refineries due to the oil price implications, and recent Houthi attacks in the Red Sea have shifted global oil and cargo shipments, we are constantly reminded of the need to continue diversifying away from oil. These rules accomplish just that. “

Crenshaw Files Congressional Review Act on EPA Rule – Rep. Dan Crenshaw filed a Congressional Review Act Joint Resolution to roll back EPA’s latest Risk Management Program Rule, which requires burdensome reporting requirements on facilities working with and housing hazardous substances. The EPA’s Risk Management Program (RMP) is designed to prevent the accidental release of certain hazardous substances into the ambient air. The RMP regulations require facilities that use “extremely hazardous substances,” such as industrial operations, agriculture supply distributors, water treatment plants, and food and beverage manufacturers, to develop plans to prevent and respond to chemical accidents, identify the range of consequences that could occur from an accidental chemical release, and provide information to the EPA and first responders so they can respond in the event of chemical emergencies from an accident.  These RMP plans then must be submitted to EPA. The facilities that fall under the RMP have shown an impressive track record in incident prevention and process safety. Since the program began in 1996, RMP reportable incidents have decreased by over 80 percent, proving that existing regulations and voluntary industry efforts are effective in managing risk. These improvements can be attributed to existing performance-based regulatory frameworks, and industry-led initiatives to continually improve operating practices and maintain a strong safety culture. In addition to being unnecessary, the final rule will significantly increase compliance costs for these facilities. In its initial proposal, EPA estimated the annual cost of the rule to be $75 million, but the Agency now estimates the annual cost of the rule to exceed $257 million. This large cost difference is due to the scope of new regulatory requirements that have been greatly expanded. Crenshaw’s CRA is backed by the American Chemistry Council, API and AF&PM.

Empire Wind Brooklyn Facility Launches – Empire Wind and the Building & Construction Trades Council of Greater New York and Vicinity (BCTC) signed a Project Labor Agreement (PLA) for the construction of the South Brooklyn Marine Terminal (SBMT) last week. The revitalized SBMT will play a key role in Equinor’s development of the Empire Wind offshore wind project as a staging and assembly site and as a home for the project’s operations and maintenance base. This first-of-its-kind PLA for Equinor is a commitment to building SBMT responsibly with the help of New York’s highly skilled union construction workforce.

“This project labor agreement ensures that SBMT’s construction will provide union jobs with family-sustaining wages, industry-leading safety standards, and robust and equitable training programs to help communities from across New York City enter this new industry,” said Molly Morris, president of Equinor Renewables Americas. “As the hub for Empire Wind, SBMT will play a transformational role in the development of the offshore wind industry and deliver more than renewable energy generated off New York’s shores. It will spur a durable new industry for the Empire State.”

The agreement will establish working standards, industry-leading safety practices, and equity in the construction of the terminal, creating over 1,000 union construction jobs and apprenticeships in local New York communities, as well as thousands of indirect jobs in manufacturing, shipping and logistics.  The PLA also promotes engagement with Minority- and Women-Owned Businesses (MWBE) and Service-Disabled Veteran-Owned Businesses (SDVOB) and includes a local hire requirement that gives priority to union members who are Section 3 New York City Housing Authority (NYCHA) residents, veterans, and those who live in Sunset Park. The agreement also ensures labor harmony during the construction of SBMT, establishes uniform wages and benefits, and ensures a steady supply of New York labor throughout the project. 

EU Battery Passport Project Set to Track Supply Chain – A consortium of eleven leading international industry, technology and science organizations has released the first Technical Guidance and Demonstrator for the EU Battery Passport. Published by the Battery Pass project with co-funding from the German Federal Ministry for Economic Affairs and Climate Action (BMWK), the document provides a framework and recommendations for the content and technical implementation of the battery passport mandated by February 2027 in the EU Battery Regulation.

EIA Releases Key Monthly Data – The Energy Information Administration released our primary report on recent and historical energy statistics, the Monthly Energy Review (MER). Preliminary estimates for 2023 indicate the following:

• U.S. primary energy production equaled 103 quadrillion British thermal units (quads), the highest total on record and a 4% increase from 2022. Crude oil production increased 9%, natural gas plant liquids production increased 8%, dry natural gas production increased 4%, renewable energy production increased 1%, nuclear electric power production was virtually unchanged, and coal production decreased 2%.
• U.S. primary energy consumption totaled 94 quads, a 1% decrease from 2022. Renewable energy consumption increased 2%, natural gas and petroleum consumption each increased 1%, nuclear electric power consumption was virtually unchanged, and coal consumption decreased 17%.
• U.S. primary energy exports equaled 30 quads, an 8% increase from 2022 and the highest total on record. U.S. primary energy imports equaled 22 quads, a 1% increase from 2022. The United States was a net exporter of energy by 8 quads, the largest margin on record.

ON THE SCHEDULE THIS WEEK

Forum Looks at US Nuclear Issues – The Energy Innovation Reform Project and the Center for the National Interest are holding a special joint discussion of U.S. nuclear energy leadership and exports on tomorrow at 9:00 a.m. During the event, Assistant Secretary of Energy Dr. Kathryn Huff will share the Biden administration’s efforts to promote U.S. nuclear energy exports and respond to questions. Following her remarks, EIRP and CFTNI have organized a panel discussion moderated by Daniel Poneman, former Deputy Secretary of Energy and former Chief Executive Officer of Centrus Energy. Panelists will include former State Department advisor Paul Saunders, president of the Center for the National Interest; Kenneth Luongo, president of Partnership for Global Security and the Center for a Secure Nuclear Future and former director of the Energy Department’s Office of Arms Control and Nonproliferation; and former Assistant Secretary of State for Arms Control and for International Security and Nonproliferation Stephen Rademaker. RSVP by email to Jordan Henry at jhenry@cftni.org

Forum Looks at Cities, Climate Change – The Carnegie Endowment for International Peace holds a virtual discussion tomorrow at 10:00 a.m. on climate science and policy surrounding the upcoming Special Report on Cities and Climate Change. The conversation will include an overview of the upcoming Special Report; readings from Indivisible Cities, in which authors from the French literary collective Oulipo collaborate with members of the international science and policy communities to develop new fictional representations of cities under climate pressure; and a wider discussion of the role of narratives in advancing climate action.

Hydrogen Safety Webinar Set – The Center for Hydrogen Safety holds a forum tomorrow at 11:00 a.m. on hydrogen impacts. The event will feature insights from the Executive Director of CHS and the chairs of its managing board, including achievements of the past 5 years, the profound impact CHS has had, and a vision for its future.

WaPo Looks at Baltimore Bridge Collapse Economic Impact – The collapse of Baltimore's Francis Scott Key Bridge has cut off access to much of the city’s port and disrupted an essential trade lane. Tomorrow at 1:00 p.m., John D. Porcari, former White House port envoy and Maryland transportation secretary, joins The Post’s David Lynch to examine the impact of the destruction on supply chains, the U.S. economy and international trade.

EESI Looks at Climate, National Security – The Environmental and Energy Study Institute (EESI) holds a briefing tomorrow at 2:00 p.m. on the impacts of climate change on U.S. national security. Panelists will discuss climate adaptation already happening at the local level around the country and the range of federal programs designed to support these efforts. They will also highlight ways that federal policy can advance national-level coordination on adaptation to safeguard critical infrastructure and protect and improve people’s lives.

RFF Report Set For Release – Resources for the Future (RFF) holds an RFF Live Event, “The Global Energy Outlook 2024: Peaks or Plateaus?” tomorrow at 3:00 p.m. This event coincides with the release of the 2024 Global Energy Outlook—RFF’s annual report that synthesizes global energy market projections and analysis from leading energy organizations and corporations—and an accompanying interactive web tool. The only report of its kind, RFF’s 2024 Global Energy Outlook harmonizes analyses from other organizations to allow for a clear understanding and easy comparison of potential future energy markets, climate trajectories, and policy options at global, regional, and national levels. The event will feature an in-depth panel discussion on the long-term trajectory of the global energy system, along with contemporary issues such as Russia’s war in Ukraine, US fossil fuel exports, and more. In particular, the event will examine whether fossil fuel use will peak and then decline or whether it will plateau, remaining high for decades and scuttling international climate goals. It will also feature a discussion on the changing energy trajectory for China, the future of critical minerals, the role of controversial emerging technologies such as carbon capture and more.

Forum Looks at IMF Role in Climate – The Center for Global Development holds a discussion tomorrow at 3:30 p.m. on the International Monetary Fund's role in responding to climate change, encouraging cooperation in a fragmenting global economy, and supporting low-income and fragile and conflict-affected states - including how to make sure these countries can leverage technological transformations in AI. In this conversation, IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva will reflect on lessons learned from previous evolutions of the IMF and look forward to new challenges and how the IMF can respond.

USEA to Look at Fusion – On Wednesday at 11:00 a.m., the US Energy Assn holds a press briefing on fusion. The next virtual press briefing plans to get answers to the open questions, and to give the media a state-of-play look at the fusion landscape. Speakers include DOE Fusion Office official Jean Paul Allain, Brandon Sorbom of Commonwealth Fusion Systems, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory Tammy Ma, EPRI’s Diana Grandas, former White House Science Advisor John Holdren and Stephen Dean of Fusion Power Associates. Among the questioners will be WSJ’s Jennifer Hiller and WaPo’s Evan Halper.

RMI to Launch Homebuilder Program – RMI holds the launch of the HomebuildersCAN program in Wednesday at 11:00 a.m.  The program focuses on a community aimed to educate and encourage builders in reducing carbon emissions associated with homes. Learn about membership benefits, such as working with experts to increase performance on embodied emissions and scale profitable climate-smart building practices.

Book Forum Discusses Lustgarten Book – New America Fellows Program holds a book conversation on Wednesday at Noon with 2016 National Fellow Jeff Goodell and 2022 Emerson Collective Fellow Abrahm Lustgarten about On the Move. Lustgarten’s book is the definitive account of what this massive population shift might look like. As he shows, the United States will be rendered unrecognizable by four unstoppable forces: wildfires in the West; frequent flooding in coastal regions; extreme heat and humidity in the South; and droughts that will make farming all but impossible across much of the nation.

SEJ Set for Philadelphia – The Society of Environmental Journalists annual meeting will be held on Wednesday to Sunday, hosted by the University of Pennsylvania. EPA head Michael Regan speaks on Friday and the IN Bracewell reception will be on again Thursday night!!

Wilson Latin Forum Set – Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies, the William J. Perry Center for Hemispheric Defense Studies, and the Wilson Center for Scholars hold the 6^th Annual Security Challenges in Latin America Forum on Thursday, at the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg Center. This year’s forum will focus on Environmental Protection: Land Use in the Amazon Basin and Marine Conservation, featuring three panels and a keynote address. Panel 1- Land Use and Illegal Deforestation, Panel 2- Threats to Marine Diversity: Illegal, Unreported and Unregulated Fishing, and Panel 3- The Role of Armed Forces and Law Enforcement in Protecting the Environment.

Book Forum Highlights Climate Book – On Thursday at 4:00 p.m., the Carnegie Endowment holds a discussion of Akshat Rathi’s new book Climate Capitalism, named one of the best books of the year by the London Times and a Kalinga Literary Festival best business book of 2024. Rathi, an award-winning senior reporter for Bloomberg News, will be joined by Noah J. Gordon, acting co-director of the Carnegie Sustainability, Climate, and Geopolitics program.

USEA Looks at Grid, EVs – On Friday at 11:00 a.m., the US Energy Assn holds remote briefing from the perspective of the U.S. auto sector, and experts in electric grids, the placement of EV charging stations to meet market demand, and increasing efficiency and reducing traffic. Speakers will include Mike Hartrick, Senior Director and Executor Advisor for Alliance for Automotive Innovation, and Phil Jones, Executive Director of the Alliance for Transportation Electrification (ATE), a non-profit industry association working with Public Utility Commissions, manufacturers to accelerate EVs across the U.S.

THE FUTURE

Solar Eclipse Expected – On April 8^th, there will be a total solar eclipse. NASA holds a media briefing tomorrow with scientific and transportation agencies on plans for it.

RMI Looks at Virtual Power Plants – On Tuesday April 9^th at 2:00 p.m. , RMI holds a forum on Virtual power plants (VPPs) offering utilities and grid operators cost-effective, reliable, and resilient grid service solutions, while providing customers savings on their energy bills. This webinar explores principles for policy and regulation that can support the fair and efficient growth, integration, valuation, compensation, and advancement of VPPs.

WaPo Host Tipping Points Summit – On Thursday April 11^th at 9:00 a.m. Washington Post Live holds a compelling and high-powered summit with policymakers, innovators and civic leaders examining the tipping points at this critical moment. Speakers include John Podesta, MD Gov. Wes Moore and many more.

Hochstein, Bechtel Headline Columbia Energy Summit – On April 16, the Center on Global Energy Policy at Columbia University SIPA holds its annual Columbia Global Energy Summit. This year’s day-long Summit will address myriad issues at the heart of today’s complex geopolitical, environmental and economic landscape, including the impact of climate change and the energy transition on geopolitics and security; the outlook for clean energy deployment in the face of growing policy support, as well as challenges such as interest rates, permitting reform and trade conflict; pathways to mobilize finance for clean energy in emerging and developing economies; energy justice imperatives; and the impact for energy and climate policy in key elections around the world in 2024. Speakers from around the world, including current and former minister-level officials, CEOs of major companies, leaders from civil society, and experts from academia and think tanks will offer valuable global and regional perspectives on critical challenges facing the global energy and climate community. Program highlights include Bechtel CEO Brendan Bechtel, former U.S. National Security Advisor Tom Donilon, Senior Advisor to the President for Energy and Investment Amos Hochstein and German State Secretary and Special Envoy for International Climate Action Jennifer Morgan.

Energy Thought Summit Set for Austin – Zpryme holds the 11^th Energy Thought Summit (ETS) in Austin, TX on April 15-18^th to look the industry’s past achievements, and opportunities that lie ahead. Industry pioneers, thought leaders, and visionaries, will address the boundaries of what is possible and shape a future powered by clean, accessible energy sources. Part of the event includes nominating six energy thought leaders from across the nation to be awarded 2024's Thought Leader of the Year. Our friend Bryan Hannegan of Holy Cross Energy is among the nominees.

EPA’s Uhlmann to Address Air Regulators – The Association of Air Pollution Control Agencies (AAPCA)holds its 2024 Spring Meeting on April 24-26^th in Indianapolis.  David Uhlmann, Assistant Administrator for U.S. EPA’s Office of Enforcement & Compliance Assurance (OECA) will provide the keynote.

Economists Look at Reliability – The National Capital Area Chapter of the U.S. Association of Energy Economists hold its 27^th Annual Energy Policy Conference on Thursday April 25^th at George Mason University. The forum will be on ensuring reliability.  Keynote speaker will be Julian Nebreda, President and CEO of Fluence. This conference will examine the potential supply-demand gaps across energy systems and consider the solutions through the lens of energy economics. Topics will include the supply and demand challenges, both domestically and internationally, how data centers and electrification are driving unexpected electricity demand while examining the constraints on supply and the incentives needed to drive solutions. Finally, it will examine the role of natural gas in this context and feature a major study by the National Petroleum Council on greenhouse gases across the gas value chain to be released that week.

WHCA Dinner Set – The White House Correspondent Association’s next annual dinner is on Saturday April 27^th at the Washington Hilton.

Cement Techs on Display at Denver Forum – The cement industry holds its 66^th annual IEEE Industry Applications Society (IEEE-IAS) and the Portland Cement Association (PCA) Conference in Denver, Colorado on April 28^th to May 2^nd at the Colorado Convention Center. Keynoters include Baseball great Jim Abbott and geologist Rob McCaffery.

CLEANPOWER Set for Minnesota – The American Clean Power Assn holds its annual CLEANPOWER 2024 forum on May 6^th to 9^th at the Minneapolis Convention Center in Minnesota.

ACORE Holds NYC Finance Forum –   ACORE Finance Forum will be held on June 4-5 in New York City.