Choose Your Own Iowa Caucus Adventure

With relatively sporadic polling, conspicuous disagreement among the survey results we do have, and sparse data from highly reputable sources, Monday’s first-in-the-nation Iowa Caucus is very much up for grabs. The polling average shows the race within the margin of error, and many voters report an openness to changing their minds, meaning the only real certainty is that there will be surprises. With that in mind, here are a few plausible outcomes we could wake up to on Tuesday, and what they might mean for the campaign going forward.

Scenario 1: Iowa feels the Bern, but Joe keeps it close: The result predicts by the averages. The Sanders surge is real, but Biden remains steady, doing what he needs to do to cover the spread and prevent a narrative disaster. A par-for-the-caucus course relieves the pressure to over-perform in NH, where Bernie’s performance will be judged on a neighboring son curve. A two-man race shapes up heading toward Super Tuesday, but Biden’s South Carolina firewall remains intact.

Scenario 2: Ridin’ with Biden: The pollster screens were too loose, as Bernie’s youth brigade does not fully materialize. An older, more traditional caucus electorate propels the former VP to what counts as an upset victory, his campaign (and performance to date) having successfully lowered expectations to merely placing. Biden’s victory consolidates the centrist “lane” and forecloses any path for Mayor Pete or Amy K, whose failure to meet the 15 percent viability threshold in key precincts accrued to Biden’s benefit and helped to put him over the top. With Biden in the driver’s seat, this very well may be all she wrote.

Scenario 3: Bernie Boom, Biden Bust: A younger electorate powered by first-time caucus-goers delivers Bernie Sanders a clear victory, giving him a big boost heading into New Hampshire, and threatening a clean sweep of the first three states. Joe Biden slips into a disappointing third place as Pete Buttigieg takes the silver. The Democratic establishment frets over how to slow down Bernie’s momentum, but the donors and powerbrokers are divided, with Bloomberg continuing to blanket national airwaves. This is Sanders’ race to lose.

Wild Cards:

We may see multiple “winners.” Depending on your preferred methodology, there are three ways to define victory: initial preference, final preference--where supporters of non-viable candidates join up with their second choice preference--and state delegate equivalent. The latter is how the national news outlets will formally determine the winner, but with delegates allocated according to an obscure formula, the more intuitive raw vote totals may not match up. You could easily end up with a split decision, with more than one campaign declaring victory.

Keep an eye on the viability diaspora. Caucus rules have been tweaked this year to lock in supporters of candidates who receive 15 percent, with only those falling shy of this threshold reshuffling among viable groups. With a crowded center lane, how these precincts shake out, and where the minor candidates’ support flows, will be critical, especially to the fortunes of Vice President Biden. On the other hand, a weakened Warren campaign may fall short in many caucuses, which stands to disproportionately help Bernie Sanders.

It all comes down to turnout. Monmouth University modeled their latest survey using three different turnout scenarios. While their baseline model gave Biden a narrow two-point lead, the outcome varied wildly depending on previous voting behavior. High numbers of traditional caucus-goers expanded Biden’s lead to six points, while an influx of infrequent voters allowed Sanders to seize a four point lead. This is perhaps the fundamental question of the night.