Biden Goes All In on His South Carolina Firewall

By: Liam Donovan

While it's still relatively early in the race for the Democratic nomination - with the first three contests accounting for less than 4 percent of pledged delegates - South Carolina's first-in-the-south primary represents the single biggest inflection point in the campaign to date. And with the sixteen-state Super Tuesday bonanza coming almost immediately on its heels, the stakes in the Palmetto State are far higher here than the allocation of another 54 delegates.

After a brutal stretch out of the gate that fell short of even the most meager expectations, former Vice President Joe Biden finally earned a silver medal, albeit a distant one, in Nevada. While a second place finish was enough to keep Biden’s hopes alive, at this point he is essentially playing from the loser’s bracket. With little in the way of resources and a nervous Establishment starting to look elsewhere for a Bernie alternative, it’s one more loss and he’s out.

The good news for Joe is that the media is itching to write a comeback story, and a win will be covered with that in mind. But Biden will need to run up the score if he wants to get the boost he needs to turn the tide on Super Tuesday. A convincing win, especially one that is called shortly after the polls close, could help change the trajectory of the race, or at least the psychology of it.

South Carolina has been Biden's self-proclaimed "firewall" since his early-state standing began to erode over the summer. While he fared poorly in homogenous states like Iowa and New Hampshire, the thinking went, affinity for Biden among black voters (bolstered by his time as President Obama's loyal sidekick) could surely carry him in a state where African-Americans made up more than 60 percent of the primary vote four years ago. But Biden's early stumbles have cost him across the board, diminishing his vaunted firewall into a relatively modest, by still stubborn, polling advantage.

More surprising than Biden's slide has been the root of his troubles. He hasn't actually lost support to Sanders, whose numbers have been fairly flat and whose base of voters has minimal overlap with Biden’s.  Nor has he been forced to grapple with his national polling nemesis, Mike Bloomberg, as Bloomberg won't show up on a primary ballot until Super Tuesday. Instead, Biden has shed a surprising number of voters to the other billionaire in the race, climate activist Tom Steyer. Steyer has made South Carolina the focal point of his campaign, spending many months and even more millions courting the state's African-American community. And the persistence has paid off: recent polling shows Steyer moving into the high teens, good for a solid third place, and, most importantly, taking up to a quarter of the black vote directly out of Biden's electoral pocket.

What was once wide, majority support for Biden has been whittled down to relative parity, with the former VP taking  only about a third of the African-American vote while Steyer and Sanders take around 20 percent apiece. While Sanders' share is pretty well locked in, Steyer’s resilience on Election Day may very well determine the race.  If support for Steyer matches his polling average – as it did in Nevada’s initial preference vote – Biden will likely escape with just a narrow win.  But, if support for Steyer slips, Biden could cruise to victory and secure a new lease on political life. 

Things have been looking up for Biden in recent days with a late endorsement by House Majority Whip and South Carolina political icon Jim Clyburn driving positive media coverage, and once-tightening polls leveled off, with the Real Clear Politics average showing a 12 point lead.

Meanwhile, newly minted frontrunner Bernie Sanders has seen little apparent boost from his dominant performance in Nevada, with a rough week punctuated by a widely criticized turn on 60 Minutes and a bumpy debate. While a win by Sanders would be a knockout blow, it would also be a significant surprise at this point.

Bottom line: Biden enters Saturday’s contest as the clear, if not overwhelming favorite. His margin will be the key in determining where the race heads from here.

Top 3 Takeaways

• The Margin: Biden must not only win South Carolina, but score a convincing victory if he is to right a ship.
• The African-American Vote: It is treated as an article of faith that black voters make up 60 percent of the South Carolina Democratic primary electorate. This proportion, and the relative parity among the candidates in the minds of these vital voters, will all but determine the outcome.
• Tom Steyer: If the billionaire climate activist runs the strong third that polling suggests he might, his foothold with African-American voters will suppress Biden’s performance. If he fades, Biden wins big.

 

Cheat Sheet

Biden wins (<10 pts): Biden survives and advances, but fails to winnow a muddled field heading into Super Tuesday. Lack of resources continue to dog him and Bloomberg awaits as a moderate alternative on Super Tuesday.

Biden wins (>10 pts): Biden notches a clear victory and can claim genuine momentum heading into Super Tuesday—if not to challenge Sanders for the delegate lead, then to make this effectively a two-candidate race going forward.

Bernie wins: Game over for Biden. Bloomberg becomes the default stop-Bernie option on Super Tuesday.